Trip.com Group 将来の成長
Future 基準チェック /06
Trip.com Groupの収益は年間17.8%で減少すると予測されていますが、年間収益は年間8.6%で増加すると予測されています。EPS は年間 減少すると予測されています。自己資本利益率は 3 年後に8.2% 18.3%なると予測されています。
主要情報
-17.8%
収益成長率
-18.31%
EPS成長率
| Hospitality 収益成長 | 19.8% |
| 収益成長率 | 8.6% |
| 将来の株主資本利益率 | 8.25% |
| アナリストカバレッジ | Good |
| 最終更新日 | 13 Sep 2026 |
今後の成長に関する最新情報
Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • Sep 13
Trip.com Q2 Earnings Preview: Regulatory Penalty Creates A Buying Opportunity (Upgrade)
Summary Trip.com Group faces significant short-term headwinds from a RMB 3.5B antitrust fine and RMB 1.6B confiscation, impacting Q2 results. Regulatory changes require TCOM to remove exclusivity with hotels and automatic price adjustments, raising concerns over take rate and market share. Despite these challenges, TCOM maintains a wide moat and benefits from strong Chinese travel trends, with 65% growth in international bookings. I upgrade TCOM to a cautious buy, as regulatory uncertainty has eased and the stock trades at an attractive ~9x FY2027 earnings. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
ナラティブ更新 • Sep 03
TCOM: Regulatory Resolution And Softer Guidance Will Still Support Future Demand
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Trip.com Group to $59.89 from $61.65, reflecting a series of reduced Street price targets that cite softer growth assumptions, slightly lower margin expectations, and ongoing regulatory and fuel cost headwinds. Analyst Commentary Street research on Trip.com Group has turned more cautious in recent months, with several firms cutting ratings or price targets while still acknowledging solid recent execution.
ナラティブ更新 • Aug 12
TCOM: Regulatory Overhang And Solid Margins Will Shape Future Upside Potential
Trip.com Group's analyst fair value estimate has shifted modestly lower from $75.07 to $72.25 as analysts trim revenue growth expectations, slightly raise the discount rate, and highlight softer Q2 guidance and regulatory overhangs, even as projected profit margins remain steady to slightly higher. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Trip.com Group points to a mixed backdrop, with several firms trimming price targets and a few moving to more neutral ratings as they factor in softer Q2 guidance, regulatory questions, and higher fuel costs.
ナラティブ更新 • Jul 29
TCOM: Regulatory Fine And Softer Q2 Outlook Will Shape Travel Resilience
Trip.com Group's fair value estimate has been updated from $43.95 to $44.92 as analysts factor in lower price targets across the Street, reflecting softer guidance, ongoing regulatory questions and higher fuel costs, while still incorporating expectations for continued revenue growth and a modestly higher future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Trip.com Group shows a clear shift toward more cautious expectations, even among firms that still carry positive ratings.ナラティブ更新 • Jul 15
TCOM: Softer Q2 Outlook And Regulatory Scrutiny Will Test Travel Resilience
Trip.com Group's analyst price target has been reduced by about $4.65 as analysts factor in softer Q2 guidance, an ongoing regulatory overhang in China, higher fuel costs pressuring travel demand, lower projected profit margins around 15.5%, and a higher assumed future P/E of about 18.4x, despite slightly firmer revenue growth expectations. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Trip.com Group points to a more cautious tone, with several Bearish analysts trimming price targets and revisiting growth and valuation assumptions following the latest results and guidance.新しいナラティブ • Jul 10
Inbound Travel And AI Infrastructure Will Drive Long-Term Upside For This Travel Platform
Catalysts About Trip.com Group Trip.com Group operates a global online travel platform connecting travelers with accommodation, transportation, tours and local experiences. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?ナラティブ更新 • Jul 01
TCOM: AI Expansion And Partnerships Will Support Future Demand Despite Regulatory Overhang
Analysts have lowered the implied fair value for Trip.com Group from about $77.09 to $61.65. This reflects reduced revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, as recent price target cuts highlight concerns around softer Q2 guidance, regulatory uncertainty in China, and the impact of higher fuel costs on demand.新しいナラティブ • Jun 26
AI And Regulatory Pressures Will Challenge Travel Platform Before Long Term Inbound Recovery
Catalysts About Trip.com Group Trip.com Group operates a global online travel platform that connects travelers with accommodation, transportation, tours and related services. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?分析記事 • Jun 21
Trip.com Group (TCOM) Stock Could Be 41.5% Undervalued After Recent Share Price Weakness
Trip.com Group (TCOM) has drawn fresh investor attention after recent share price weakness, with the stock down 6% over the past month and 11.7% over the past 3 months, prompting closer scrutiny of its fundamentals. See our latest analysis for Trip.com Group. Looking beyond the recent pullback, Trip.com Group’s share price has fallen 39.45% year to date and the 1-year total shareholder return is down 19.25%, while the 3-year and 5-year total shareholder returns of 32.16% and 26.8% indicate...ナラティブ更新 • Jun 17
TCOM: AI Expansion And Buybacks Should Support Future Overseas Demand
Analysts have made a small upward adjustment to the Trip.com Group price target to $77.09, reflecting slightly updated inputs for discount rate, fair value, and forward P/E, while keeping revenue growth and profit margin assumptions broadly consistent with prior estimates. What's in the News for Trip.com Group Trip.com Group has scheduled a board meeting for June 24, 2026, to review and approve financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026, and to authorize their publication.ナラティブ更新 • Jun 03
TCOM: AI Expansion And Global Partnerships Should Support Future Overseas Demand
Analysts have inched their price target for Trip.com Group higher to about $77.06 from around $76.91, citing updated fair value estimates, a slightly revised discount rate, and a modest adjustment to expected future P/E levels. What's in the News Trip.com Group hosted its Envision 2026 Global Partner Conference, highlighting new artificial intelligence tools aimed at more personalized travel experiences in the Attractions & Tours segment.ナラティブ更新 • May 13
TCOM: Solid Q4 Execution And Reinvestment Should Support Future Overseas Demand
Trip.com Group’s updated analyst price target has been reset to $75, as analysts factor in slightly lower sector valuation multiples, recent Q4 revenue strength across segments, and some margin pressure from reinvestment. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Trip.com Group points to a mixed but generally constructive stance, with multiple firms trimming price targets while maintaining positive ratings on the stock.ナラティブ更新 • Apr 28
TCOM: Solid Q4 Execution And Conservative Guidance Will Support Future Overseas Demand
Trip.com Group's updated analyst price target has edged down by a small amount, aligning with a series of recent Street target cuts into a $68 to $79 range, as analysts factor in slightly adjusted revenue growth and margin assumptions while still highlighting solid Q4 execution and broadly constructive views on the shares. Analyst Commentary Recent Street commentary clusters around lower price targets for Trip.com Group but still generally positive views on execution and long term growth potential.ナラティブ更新 • Apr 11
TCOM: Q4 Execution And Regulatory Resolution Will Support Future Overseas Demand
Trip.com Group's fair value estimate edges up to $76.50 as analysts trim formal price targets into a $68 to $79 range, reflecting sector wide multiple compression, Q4 revenue that slightly topped expectations, and updated margin assumptions tied to reinvestment. Analyst Commentary Across the Street, analysts have reset their price targets for Trip.com Group into a tighter range while keeping largely positive ratings, pointing to a balance of solid execution and valuation caution.ナラティブ更新 • Mar 27
TCOM: Q4 Execution And Regulatory Resolution Will Support Long-Term Overseas Demand
The updated analyst price target for Trip.com Group has edged slightly lower to approximately $76.21. Analysts point to reduced industry multiples and some margin pressure, despite broadly solid Q4 revenue performance and generally supportive ratings.ナラティブ更新 • Mar 11
TCOM: Regulatory Probe Resolution Will Support Long-Term Overseas Travel Demand
The analyst price target for Trip.com Group has been reduced from $87.08 to $76.26, as analysts factor in slightly lower revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, a lower future P/E of 18.80 versus 21.60, and recent target cuts into the $68 to $79 range despite ongoing positive views on the business. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Trip.com Group reflects a mix of optimism on the core business and caution on valuation, margins, and regulatory headlines.ナラティブ更新 • Feb 24
TCOM: Regulatory Probe Resilience Will Support Long-Term Overseas Travel Strength
Analysts have made a small upward adjustment to their Trip.com Group price target to about $87, reflecting slightly lower discount rate and P/E assumptions, while factoring in recent regulatory probe commentary that suggests limited long term impact on the company’s industry position. Analyst Commentary Street research around the recent regulatory probe is split, with some focusing on valuation support and others on potential near term share price pressure and execution risk.ナラティブ更新 • Feb 10
TCOM: Overseas Travel Strength Will Offset Regulatory Probe Concerns
Analysts have slightly lowered their fair value estimate for Trip.com Group to about $86.91 from $87.05, reflecting a marginally higher discount rate and updated views on the recent regulatory probe, as well as earlier positive readings of Q3 performance and raised Q4 expectations. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts point to Q3 results that were described as solid, with hotel bookings during the summer holidays and October's Golden Week supporting the recent fair value work and helping underpin confidence in Trip.com Group's execution.ナラティブ更新 • Jan 27
TCOM: Overseas Travel Demand And Solid Q3 Execution Will Support Upside
Narrative Update: Trip.com Group Analyst Price Target Analysts have made only a marginal adjustment to their valuation framework for Trip.com Group, with a slightly lower fair value estimate of about US$87 per share. This reflects modest tweaks to discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions that are informed by recent research highlighting solid Q3 results, a raised Q4 outlook and ongoing attention to the recent regulatory probe.ナラティブ更新 • Jan 12
TCOM: Overseas Holiday Demand Will Support Q4 Momentum And Earnings Upside
Narrative Update on Trip.com Group The analyst price target for Trip.com Group has been revised higher by about US$1, supported by Street research highlighting Q3 results that were better than expected and strong holiday driven travel demand carrying into Q4. Analyst Commentary Recent Street commentary on Trip.com Group has focused on the Q3 performance and the updated view for Q4, with price targets moving higher as analysts reassess the balance between growth, execution and valuation.分析記事 • Jan 04
The Market Doesn't Like What It Sees From Trip.com Group Limited's (NASDAQ:TCOM) Earnings Yet
With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 10.9x Trip.com Group Limited ( NASDAQ:TCOM ) may be sending bullish...ナラティブ更新 • Dec 14
TCOM: Overseas Holiday Demand Will Drive Q4 Momentum And Support Upside
Analysts have nudged their price target for Trip.com Group modestly higher to approximately $86 per share from about $85, citing stronger than expected Q3 performance and an improving Q4 outlook supported by resilient travel demand despite broader consumption headwinds. Analyst Commentary Analyst commentary around Trip.com Group remains largely constructive, with recent target hikes reflecting confidence in the company’s ability to execute on growth initiatives despite a softer macro consumption backdrop.ナラティブ更新 • Nov 27
TCOM: Overseas Travel Strength Will Drive Q4 Momentum And Profitability
The analyst price target for Trip.com Group has increased from $83.78 to $85.81. This change reflects continued confidence in the company's strong results and improved revenue outlook, as noted by analysts following its robust Q3 performance and resilient travel demand.ナラティブ更新 • Nov 11
TCOM: Revenue Momentum And Margins Will Be Driven By Inbound Travel
Trip.com Group's analyst price target has been slightly increased to $83.78 from $83.58. Analysts cite stronger-than-expected revenue and margin performance, along with robust volume growth overcoming pricing pressures.分析記事 • Nov 03
There's Been No Shortage Of Growth Recently For Trip.com Group's (NASDAQ:TCOM) Returns On Capital
Finding a business that has the potential to grow substantially is not easy, but it is possible if we look at a few key...ナラティブ更新 • Oct 28
International Tourism Momentum Will Lift Asia-Pacific Travel Sector Through 2025
Trip.com Group's analyst price target has been nudged slightly higher to $83.58 per share from $83.54. Analysts point to stronger-than-expected Q2 results and incremental growth in inbound travel as supporting factors for the modest upward revision.ナラティブ更新 • Oct 05
Expanding Asia-Pacific Market Will Drive International Tourism
Analysts have raised their price target for Trip.com Group, increasing it from about $82.70 to $83.54. They cite stronger-than-expected revenue growth and improving profit margins in the latest quarter.ナラティブ更新 • Aug 29
Promoting Inbound Travel And Rural Revitalization In China Will Support Sustainable Long-Term Growth
The consensus Analyst Price Target for Trip.com Group has risen to $79.15, primarily reflecting a sharp decline in the company’s future P/E ratio, while revenue growth expectations remain stable. What's in the News Completed repurchase of 7,000,000 shares (1.06%) for $400 million under the buyback announced in February 2025.Seeking Alpha • Feb 27
Trip.com: Navigating Global Expansion Amid Domestic Headwinds
Summary Trip.com reported strong Q4 results, with revenue growth of 23% y/y, but margins fell short due to international market investments. US shares dipped, but Hong Kong shares rose; recommend buying on the dip due to promising international expansion and reasonable margin traction. Valued at 15x forward EBITDA, implying $79/share and a 37% upside; investment in Trip.com app crucial for diversifying revenue streams. Risks include reliance on China's domestic tourism and potential increased spending on global expansion, possibly leading to multiple contraction. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 23
Trip.com Group Stock: Growth Momentum Remains Strong
Summary Trip.com Group Limited's growth has remained strong, with Q3 earnings beating Wall Street's expectations through rapid growth and operating leverage. Growth prospects remain good with continued normalization in Chinese tourism and fairly good economic growth. TCOM stock remains valued with a fair margin of safety, as I estimate 13% upside to a fair value of $76. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
新しいナラティブ • Nov 24
China's Resilient Travel Market Spurs Revenue Growth And Global Expansion Excitement
Resilient domestic and cross-border travel, combined with personalized experiences, will enhance Trip.com's revenue growth and potentially improve margins.Seeking Alpha • Nov 19
Trip.com: Beyond Its Recovery Story Of 2024
Summary Trip.com has a strong balance sheet with significant cash reserves, but its volatile revenue growth rates and reliance on China's economy are concerning. Despite a 65% stock increase in 2024, the unpredictable growth rates and limited financial transparency under IFRS reporting make me cautious. The stock is priced at 16x EBITDA, which is somewhat appealing, but the risk-reward profile doesn't align with my Inflection investing strategy. Given the uncertainties, I prefer to stay neutral and avoid taking a position on TCOM at this time. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Oct 30
Trip.com: Chinese Travel Trends Suggest Continued Growth
Summary Trip.com Group Limited is well-positioned to capture growth from the growing Chinese travel industry. The COVID-19 pandemic caused a massive decline in especially TCOM's 2020–2022 revenues, but the following tourism recovery has led to recently incredibly strong growth momentum, looking to strengthen TCOM's Q3. TCOM stock is valued with a slight undervaluation, still falling within a margin of safety, as the industry also has cheaper alternative investments. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Aug 27
Trip.com: The Hottest Consumer Market In China
Summary Trip.com is a leading online travel agent in China, controlling 50% of the market, with strong growth prospects due to eased travel restrictions and increasing international flight capacity. The company trades at 14X forward earnings, lower than international peers, but corporate governance issues and a lack of shareholder returns are significant concerns. Despite generating strong cash flow, TCOM has not paid dividends and has engaged in limited share buybacks, raising red flags about capital allocation. We recommend holding off on buying Trip.com stock until a more shareholder-friendly capital allocation policy is adopted. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jul 24
Trip.com: Arriving At Buy Territory
Summary Trip.com offers exposure to the Chinese recovery with decent revenue growth and margin expansion due to economic recovery and diversified revenue streams. Despite share dilution, TCOM's business model, network effect, and potential outbound travel recovery make it a compelling investment option if you tolerate the Chinese stock risks. Expectations for TCOM include margin expansion, capitalizing on outbound travel recovery, revenue growth stabilization, and continued share dilution. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha業績と収益の成長予測
| 日付 | 収益 | 収益 | フリー・キャッシュフロー | 営業活動によるキャッシュ | 平均アナリスト数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 82,718 | 18,811 | 20,120 | N/A | 21 |
| 12/31/2027 | 74,915 | 16,932 | 19,122 | N/A | 31 |
| 12/31/2026 | 67,404 | 12,393 | 15,189 | N/A | 30 |
| 3/31/2026 | 64,787 | 31,516 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 62,409 | 33,294 | 13,582 | 14,379 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 59,755 | 31,170 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 57,290 | 18,045 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 55,219 | 17,032 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 53,294 | 17,067 | 19,034 | 19,625 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 50,875 | 16,207 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 48,742 | 14,057 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 47,217 | 10,855 | 20,665 | 21,282 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 44,510 | 9,918 | 21,398 | 22,004 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 39,212 | 10,678 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 32,364 | 6,329 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 25,128 | 5,767 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 20,039 | 1,403 | 2,143 | 2,641 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 19,693 | -1,488 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 18,145 | -2,603 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 20,024 | -3,319 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 20,023 | -550 | 1,904 | 2,475 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 20,306 | 1,288 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 20,424 | 3,715 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 17,693 | 3,886 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 18,316 | -3,247 | -4,355 | -3,823 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 21,687 | -2,243 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 26,701 | -3,028 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 32,233 | -2,955 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 35,666 | 7,011 | N/A | 7,333 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 34,891 | 3,813 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 33,770 | 1,881 | N/A | 8,649 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 32,398 | 4,665 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 30,965 | 1,112 | N/A | 7,115 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 29,581 | 2,654 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 28,345 | 5,187 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 27,482 | 3,163 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 26,796 | 2,155 | N/A | 7,069 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 25,687 | 2,449 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 23,140 | 1,079 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 21,095 | 200 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 19,245 | -1,418 | N/A | 5,270 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 17,035 | -2,000 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 14,645 | 391 | N/A | 1,472 | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 12,761 | 1,055 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 10,898 | 2,508 | N/A | 3,049 | N/A |
| 9/30/2015 | 9,937 | 2,208 | N/A | 1,498 | N/A |
アナリストによる今後の成長予測
収入対貯蓄率: TCOMの収益は今後 3 年間で減少すると予測されています (年間-17.8% )。
収益対市場: TCOMの収益は今後 3 年間で減少すると予測されています (年間-17.8% )。
高成長収益: TCOMの収益は今後 3 年間で減少すると予測されています。
収益対市場: TCOMの収益 ( 8.6% ) US市場 ( 13.4% ) よりも低い成長が予測されています。
高い収益成長: TCOMの収益 ( 8.6% ) 20%よりも低い成長が予測されています。
一株当たり利益成長率予想
将来の株主資本利益率
将来のROE: TCOMの 自己資本利益率 は、3年後には低くなると予測されています ( 8.2 %)。
成長企業の発掘
企業分析と財務データの現状
| データ | 最終更新日（UTC時間） |
|---|---|
| 企業分析 | 2026/09/14 05:55 |
| 終値 | 2026/09/14 00:00 |
| 収益 | 2026/03/31 |
| 年間収益 | 2025/12/31 |
データソース
企業分析に使用したデータはS&P Global Market Intelligence LLC のものです。本レポートを作成するための分析モデルでは、以下のデータを使用しています。データは正規化されているため、ソースが利用可能になるまでに時間がかかる場合があります。
| パッケージ | データ | タイムフレーム | 米国ソース例 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 会社財務 | 10年 |
| |
| アナリストのコンセンサス予想 | +プラス3年 |
|
|
| 市場価格 | 30年 |
| |
| 所有権 | 10年 |
| |
| マネジメント | 10年 |
| |
| 主な進展 | 10年 |
|
* 米国証券を対象とした例であり、非米国証券については、同等の規制書式および情報源を使用。
特に断りのない限り、すべての財務データは1年ごとの期間に基づいていますが、四半期ごとに更新されます。これは、TTM（Trailing Twelve Month）またはLTM（Last Twelve Month）データとして知られています。詳細はこちら。
分析モデルとスノーフレーク
このレポートを生成するために使用した分析モデルの詳細は、当社のGitHubページでご覧いただけます。また、レポートの活用方法に関するガイドやYouTubeのチュートリアルも用意しています。
シンプリー・ウォールストリート分析モデルを設計・構築した ご紹介します。
業界およびセクターの指標
私たちの業界とセクションの指標は、Simply Wall Stによって6時間ごとに計算されます。
アナリスト筋
Trip.com Group Limited 31 これらのアナリストのうち、弊社レポートのインプットとして使用した売上高または利益の予想を提出したのは、 。アナリストの投稿は一日中更新されます。69
| アナリスト | 機関 |
|---|---|
| "Jiong Shao | Barclays |
| Jiong Shao | Barclays |
| Alicia Yap | Barclays |