PDD Holdings Inc.NasdaqGS:PDD 株式レポート

Key Takeaways Investments in ecosystem development, supply chain efficiency, and international expansion are diversifying revenue streams and strengthening PDD's ability to capture e-commerce growth globally. Focus on affordability, digitalization, and AI-driven operations is enhancing user acquisition, repeat purchases, and long-term margin improvement amid shifting consumer and macroeconomic trends.

Key Takeaways Increasing regulatory scrutiny and trade tensions present growing risks to the company's international expansion, supply chain stability, and future revenue growth. Persistent reliance on discounts, rising marketing costs, and global economic headwinds are compressing margins and curbing both user growth and profitability.

Executive Summary Based on exceptional recent execution and accelerating growth metrics, we revise our 12-month price target for PDD Holdings to $165.00, representing approximately 74% upside from the current price of $94.68. Recent Performance Highlights Q3 2024 demonstrated remarkable acceleration across key metrics: Transaction services revenue surged 72% year-over-year, significantly outpacing expectations Operating profit increased 46% to RMB 24.3 billion with expanding margins Net income growth accelerated to 61% year-over-year Cash position strengthened to $44 billion, providing substantial strategic flexibility Key Growth Catalysts International Expansion: Temu's semi-entrusted model showing stronger-than-anticipated margin improvement Geographic footprint expanded to 70+ countries with robust user acquisition metrics Customer acquisition costs decreased 22% quarter-over-quarter Platform Economics: Take rate expanded to 3.8%, demonstrating pricing power Monthly active users exceeded 900 million in Q4 2024 Merchant retention rate stable at 89% despite take rate increases Risk Assessment Near-term Challenges: EU's VLOP designation may require additional compliance investments Potential changes to U.S. de minimis import rules Intensifying competition in cross-border e-commerce Revised Valuation Analysis Given the acceleration in key metrics, we apply a 10x FY2024E EV/EBITDA multiple (up from 8x), still below high-growth internet peers at 12-15x.

Catalysts Group Buying Model: PDD’s unique appeal lies in its group buying function. Users can join groups to purchase items at lower prices.