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CPRT 04-2026

Published
26 Apr 26
Views
148
26 Apr
US$32.85
Esteban's Fair Value
US$23.03
42.6% overvalued intrinsic discount
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1Y
-36.1%
7D
-4.5%

Author's Valuation

US$23.0342.6% overvalued intrinsic discount

Esteban's Fair Value

Copart is a compounding machine wearing the clothes of a salvage yard. It has built the only infrastructure on earth — a two-sided digital marketplace spanning 1M+ registered buyers in 190+ countries, anchored by owned physical storage across 21,000+ irreplaceable acres — capable of converting an insurance industry's inconvenient problem (the totaled car) into global liquidity at scale. The business earns 36% operating margins on a fee-based model that carries zero inventory risk, compounds FCF at 20%+ over a decade, and operates counter-cyclically: recessions raise total-loss frequency as repair costs rise relative to vehicle values. The insurer supply relationships are embedded in claims workflows — Copart does not merely auction cars; it processes titles, dispatches towing networks, and runs the digital infrastructure through which carriers make total-loss decisions. Switching is operationally punishing. The moat is wide, the durability is 4/5, and management is a net positive: a founder-anchored governance structure (13%+ insider ownership) with a PE-trained capital allocator at the helm who has demonstrated patience (3-year buyback pause, debt elimination), opportunism (January 2026 buyback at prices below year-end), and intellectual honesty (no guidance, frank discussion of headwinds). At a 30% margin of safety and a 22× FCF exit multiple, the Neutral scenario implies a 10-year FCF runway of $3,886M — a business worth owning for a decade.

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Disclaimer

The user Esteban holds no position in NasdaqGS:CPRT. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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