MDLZ: Consistent Guidance And Buybacks Will Support Future Re Rating

Analysts have made a small adjustment to their view on Mondelez International, trimming the average price target by $1 to $73 while highlighting steady guidance through the 2026 CAGNY conference and mixed sentiment across U.S. food peers.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research around the 2026 CAGNY conference shows that views on Mondelez are split, with some firms trimming price targets and others lifting them, while ratings generally stay positive. Here is how bullish and cautious voices are framing the story for valuation, execution, and growth.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts are keeping positive ratings on Mondelez even when they adjust price targets. In their view, the core long-term thesis and execution track record remain intact.
Several firms have recently raised their price targets on Mondelez by US$1 to US$3. This suggests they see support for the current valuation based on the company’s ability to stick to its plans through 2026.
At CAGNY, Mondelez did not change its guidance, while some peers either reduced outlooks or pulled back on longer-term goals. Bullish analysts view this as a sign of management consistency that can underpin earnings visibility.
Against a broader consumer staples backdrop that some expect to be challenging, supportive ratings such as Overweight and Outperform indicate that many analysts still view Mondelez as relatively well positioned within large-cap food producers.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts have trimmed their price targets on Mondelez by amounts such as US$2 to US$6. This points to more conservative assumptions around what the shares should be worth, even as ratings often stay positive.
Some research framed 2026 as a challenging year for large-cap consumer staples, with volume growth for the group referenced at negative 0.9% in 2025 and pricing described as muted. This can limit how much valuation upside they are willing to assign to Mondelez.
Where targets for food producers have been reset lower, Mondelez is part of a wider recalibration that reflects concerns around weak fundamentals and elevated macro uncertainty. This has translated into talk of limited prospects for a broad valuation recovery in the sector.
While Mondelez kept its guidance steady at CAGNY, the lack of incremental positive surprises leads some cautious analysts to see fewer catalysts to push the stock meaningfully above current consensus targets in the near term.

What's in the News

Mondelez completed a share repurchase program announced on December 11, 2024, buying back a total of 39,604,831 shares, representing 3.03% of shares for US$2,297.97m, including 9,002,033 shares, or 0.7%, for US$492.38m between October 1, 2025 and December 31, 2025 (company filing).
The company issued earnings guidance for 2026, expecting Organic Net Revenue growth in a range of flat to 2% for the year (company guidance).
RITZ launched Drizzled Minis in Canada in two flavours, Fudge and Caramel, supported by a marketing partnership with Canadian siblings Johnny and Lauren Orlando and a themed Spotify playlist to promote sweet and salty snacking (company announcement).
OREO Cakesters introduced a Double Chocolate flavour in Canada, alongside an immersive OREO Cakesters Soft Factory experience at CF Toronto Eaton Centre, featuring product sampling, interactive activities and limited-edition merchandise, with Cakesters available in Original, Golden and Double Chocolate at participating Canadian retailers (company announcement).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: Adjusted slightly lower from $66.92 to $66.88, a change of less than 0.1%.
Discount Rate: Held steady at 6.98%, indicating no change in the required return used in the model.
Revenue Growth: Trimmed modestly from 3.19% to 3.14%, reflecting a slightly more cautious view on top line expansion.
Net Profit Margin: Reduced from 9.94% to 9.54%, implying a more conservative view on future profitability.
Future P/E: Increased from 24.18x to 25.22x, suggesting a higher valuation multiple applied to projected earnings.

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Key Takeaways

Mondelez's global pricing strategy and strategic growth agenda aim to increase revenue and market share, especially in Europe and emerging markets.
Innovative brand activations and sustainability initiatives are expected to enhance consumer engagement, brand loyalty, and long-term value creation.
Elevated cocoa costs and decreased consumer demand are pressuring profit margins, with potential risks from economic uncertainties and trade tensions impacting future revenues.

Catalysts

About Mondelez International

Through its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and sells snack food and beverage products in the Latin America, North America, Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Mondelez International is executing a robust pricing strategy in response to high cocoa costs, which is expected to improve revenue as pricing takes effect globally, especially in markets like Europe and emerging markets.
The company is implementing a strategic growth agenda that includes reinvesting in brands, expanding distribution, and strengthening market presence, which should positively impact revenue growth and market share.
Mondelez’s focus on innovative brand activations and product collaborations, like the Oreo and Post Malone partnership and Cadbury Dairy Milk with Lotus Bakeries, are expected to enhance consumer engagement and drive revenue growth.
The ongoing investment in sustainability initiatives, such as scaling the Cocoa Life program and reducing carbon emissions, is likely to support long-term value creation and enhance brand loyalty, potentially improving net margins.
Mondelez continues to expand its presence in emerging markets, adding over 100,000 stores, which is expected to drive growth in market share and revenue as consumer confidence stabilizes and economic conditions improve in these regions.

Mondelez International Earnings and Revenue Growth

Mondelez International Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Mondelez International's revenue will grow by 4.8% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 9.8% today to 11.1% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $4.7 billion (and earnings per share of $3.8) by about September 2028, up from $3.6 billion today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 22.4x on those 2028 earnings, up from 22.2x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Food industry at 19.5x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 3.23% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.78%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Mondelez International Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Elevated cocoa costs significantly impacted adjusted gross profit and consequently affected EPS, posing a risk to net margins if prices remain high or increase further.
North America experienced a decline due to retailer destocking and softer consumer demand, particularly from lower-income households, which could continue to pressure earnings and margins.
Volume/mix was down 3.5% due to elasticity, with potential future risks if consumers continue to react negatively to higher prices, leading to revenue challenges.
Consumer confidence in key markets like Brazil, Mexico, and China is soft due to economic uncertainty, which could impact demand and subsequently revenue and earnings growth.
Increasing trade tensions and potential tariff impacts, although manageable now, could create future expense pressures or require strategic adjustments, affecting net profits.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $74.417 for Mondelez International based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $88.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $67.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $42.7 billion, earnings will come to $4.7 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 22.4x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.8%.
Given the current share price of $62.57, the analyst price target of $74.42 is 15.9% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

MDLZ: Lower Cocoa Costs And Supply Chain Upgrades Will Drive Efficiency