MDLZ: Steady Guidance And Buybacks Will Support Margins And Future Re Rating

The analyst price target for Mondelez International edges slightly higher to $66.92, as analysts keep estimates broadly steady and point to relatively unchanged guidance at the recent CAGNY conference while adjusting expectations across the wider U.S. food group.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research around the 2026 CAGNY conference paints a mixed but generally constructive picture for Mondelez, with most commentary focused on how resilient its guidance looks compared with other large U.S. food names and how that feeds into valuation resets across the group.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts highlight that Mondelez kept guidance unchanged at CAGNY, while some peers cut or adjusted outlooks. They see this as a sign of steadier execution within the sector.
Several firms reiterate positive ratings on the stock, even when tweaking sector models. This signals that Mondelez remains one of their preferred large-cap food names for exposure to branded consumer staples.
Some price targets are either reaffirmed or raised by a small amount. Within ongoing sector recalibrations, this suggests that Mondelez is still viewed as having support under its current valuation framework.
Where analysts are reshaping their 2026 consumer staples outlooks, Mondelez often sits in the camp of companies they see as better positioned relative to concerns elsewhere in the group.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts have trimmed price targets into the low to mid US$60s and low US$70s, reflecting broader caution on large-cap staples and a reset of expectations for potential upside.
Some firms cite a “challenging” 2026 setup for the sector, with weak volume trends and muted pricing. They see this as a constraint on growth and multiple expansion for Mondelez as well.
Comments about compressed valuations in food producers, driven by competition and macro uncertainty, indicate that even quality names like Mondelez may face limits on how much investors are willing to pay.
Target cuts tied to sector-wide outlooks suggest that, while Mondelez guidance is unchanged, analysts are still building in more conservative assumptions around execution and growth over the next year.

What’s in the News

Completed share repurchase of 39,604,831 shares, representing 3.03% of shares, for a total of US$2,297.97m under the buyback announced on December 11, 2024. This includes 9,002,033 shares, or 0.7%, repurchased for US$492.38m between October 1 and December 31, 2025 (Key Developments).
Issued 2026 guidance for Organic Net Revenue growth in a range of flat to 2%, giving investors a quantified view of expected top line performance for the year (Key Developments).
Expanded the RITZ brand in Canada with RITZ Drizzled Minis, offered in Fudge and Caramel flavours and supported by a partnership with Canadian siblings Johnny and Lauren Orlando, including a curated Spotify playlist to support the launch (Key Developments).
Extended the OREO Cakesters range with Double Chocolate in Canada and promoted it through an OREO Cakesters Soft Factory pop up at CF Toronto Eaton Centre, featuring sampling, interactive experiences and limited edition giveaways, with Cakesters now available in Original, Golden and Double Chocolate flavours across participating Canadian retailers (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value was nudged higher from $66.69 to $66.92, signaling only a very small upward adjustment in the model output.
The Discount Rate was effectively unchanged at 6.978%, indicating no shift in the assumed risk or required return used in the valuation.
Revenue Growth edged slightly lower from 3.20% to about 3.19%, reflecting a modestly more cautious view on dollar sales expansion in the model.
The Net Profit Margin was reduced from 10.73% to about 9.94%, implying lower modeled profitability on future dollar earnings.
The Future P/E moved up from 22.9x to about 24.2x, suggesting the valuation now assumes a higher earnings multiple for Mondelez International.

Mondelez's global pricing strategy and strategic growth agenda aim to increase revenue and market share, especially in Europe and emerging markets.
Innovative brand activations and sustainability initiatives are expected to enhance consumer engagement, brand loyalty, and long-term value creation.
Elevated cocoa costs and decreased consumer demand are pressuring profit margins, with potential risks from economic uncertainties and trade tensions impacting future revenues.

Catalysts

About Mondelez International

Through its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and sells snack food and beverage products in the Latin America, North America, Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Mondelez International is executing a robust pricing strategy in response to high cocoa costs, which is expected to improve revenue as pricing takes effect globally, especially in markets like Europe and emerging markets.
The company is implementing a strategic growth agenda that includes reinvesting in brands, expanding distribution, and strengthening market presence, which should positively impact revenue growth and market share.
Mondelez’s focus on innovative brand activations and product collaborations, like the Oreo and Post Malone partnership and Cadbury Dairy Milk with Lotus Bakeries, are expected to enhance consumer engagement and drive revenue growth.
The ongoing investment in sustainability initiatives, such as scaling the Cocoa Life program and reducing carbon emissions, is likely to support long-term value creation and enhance brand loyalty, potentially improving net margins.
Mondelez continues to expand its presence in emerging markets, adding over 100,000 stores, which is expected to drive growth in market share and revenue as consumer confidence stabilizes and economic conditions improve in these regions.

Mondelez International Earnings and Revenue Growth

Mondelez International Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Mondelez International's revenue will grow by 4.8% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 9.8% today to 11.1% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $4.7 billion (and earnings per share of $3.8) by about September 2028, up from $3.6 billion today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 22.4x on those 2028 earnings, up from 22.2x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Food industry at 19.5x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 3.23% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.78%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Mondelez International Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Elevated cocoa costs significantly impacted adjusted gross profit and consequently affected EPS, posing a risk to net margins if prices remain high or increase further.
North America experienced a decline due to retailer destocking and softer consumer demand, particularly from lower-income households, which could continue to pressure earnings and margins.
Volume/mix was down 3.5% due to elasticity, with potential future risks if consumers continue to react negatively to higher prices, leading to revenue challenges.
Consumer confidence in key markets like Brazil, Mexico, and China is soft due to economic uncertainty, which could impact demand and subsequently revenue and earnings growth.
Increasing trade tensions and potential tariff impacts, although manageable now, could create future expense pressures or require strategic adjustments, affecting net profits.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $74.417 for Mondelez International based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $88.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $67.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $42.7 billion, earnings will come to $4.7 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 22.4x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.8%.
Given the current share price of $62.57, the analyst price target of $74.42 is 15.9% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

MDLZ: Lower Cocoa Costs And Supply Chain Upgrades Will Drive Efficiency