ZION Will Navigate Fraud Headlines As Credit Clarity And Fundamentals Improve

Analysts have nudged their price target on Zions Bancorporation National Association slightly lower, trimming fair value by about $0.21 per share to approximately $62.09. They are balancing improving credit clarity and core loan and deposit momentum against modestly softer long term growth and profitability assumptions.

Analyst Commentary

Street research on Zions Bancorporation National Association has turned incrementally more constructive, with several firms revising targets higher while still flagging execution and cycle risks that could cap near term upside.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts view the recent fraud related charge off as an isolated event, arguing that the stock pullback and mini credit scare have overshot underlying fundamentals.
Multiple price target increases into the low to mid $60s, and one outlier at $70, signal growing confidence that a steepening yield curve and lower short term rates can support better net interest margins and earnings power over time.
Improving clarity around credit quality outside of Tricolor and First Brands exposures is seen as de risking the story, helping justify a valuation closer to peers rather than a persistent discount.
Momentum in core loans and deposits is highlighted as a key driver for sustainable growth, supporting the case that Zions can leverage a more favorable rate backdrop to grow earnings and potentially narrow its valuation gap to higher quality regional banks.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts or those remaining neutral argue that, despite better credit visibility, the current share price already embeds fair value, limiting near term upside unless growth or returns surprise positively.
Investor preference remains skewed toward larger banks, where perceived deregulation benefits and stronger capital markets exposure could drive superior growth, leaving Zions and other regionals at risk of relative underperformance.
Heightened sensitivity to credit headlines, including fraud related cases in the broader regional bank space, reinforces the need for strong communication on credit risk and leaves sentiment vulnerable if additional issues emerge.
Some research frames the upgraded industry view as an opportunity for midcap banks generally, but maintains more balanced ratings on Zions pending clearer evidence that loan growth, deposit costs, and margin expansion can deliver the higher earnings implied by the most optimistic price targets.

What's in the News

Zions disclosed a fraud related case that has drawn market attention, as investors connect it with a separate $100 million lawsuit involving Western Alliance, reinforcing broader concerns about fraud risk across regional banks (periodicals).
Analysts note that, while the apparent fraud cases are unrelated to prior Tricolor or First Brands credit issues, they come amid already elevated credit concerns, increasing scrutiny on Zions management's risk controls and disclosure practices (periodicals).
Zions reported a sharp increase in net charge offs to $56 million for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, compared with $3 million a year earlier, underscoring pressure on credit quality and provisioning needs (Key Developments).
The spike in net charge offs, alongside fresh fraud headlines, is feeding volatility in regional bank stocks and may influence how investors value Zions relative to peers with cleaner recent credit performance (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: edged down slightly from about $62.30 to around $62.09 per share, reflecting a modest recalibration of intrinsic value.
Discount Rate: decreased modestly from roughly 7.47 percent to about 7.30 percent, indicating a slightly lower perceived risk profile or cost of equity.
Revenue Growth: lowered from approximately 3.83 percent to about 3.16 percent, signaling somewhat more conservative expectations for top line expansion.
Net Profit Margin: reduced from around 23.27 percent to roughly 22.30 percent, suggesting a minor tempering of long term profitability assumptions.
Future P/E: increased slightly from about 13.75x to roughly 14.26x, implying a modestly higher valuation multiple on forward earnings despite softer growth and margin forecasts.

Investments in digital banking and advisory services are strengthening efficiency, boosting noninterest income, and reducing reliance on traditional lending.
Targeted growth in key commercial segments and strong regional economies are diversifying revenue sources and stabilizing long-term earnings.
Geographic concentration, commercial real estate exposure, competitive pressures, tech investment gaps, and regulatory uncertainty all threaten long-term profitability and earnings stability.

Catalysts

About Zions Bancorporation National Association

Provides various banking products and related services primarily in the states of Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Texas, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The ongoing investment in digital capabilities-including a modern, AI-enabled core banking platform-positions Zions to capitalize on increasing demand for efficient, tech-driven banking services, lowering operational costs and improving the efficiency ratio, which should drive net margin expansion.
Robust loan growth, particularly in commercial and small business sectors, is being supported by positive demographic and economic trends in the Mountain West and Southwest, leading to a larger addressable customer base and sustained increases in both net interest income and fee-based revenues.
The tailored rollout of the consumer gold account and focus on mass affluent and wealth management clients leverage shifting wealth and entrepreneurial activity in Zions' key regions, diversifying revenue streams and increasing noninterest income, which should stabilize earnings across cycles.
The growing contribution of capital markets and fee-generating advisory businesses, including M&A and commodity risk management, provides a scalable path to higher noninterest income, reducing reliance on traditional lending and supporting future revenue growth.
A disciplined risk management culture and improved asset mix-with continued low loan losses and well-managed CRE exposure-enhances long-term earnings stability and supports above-peer capital generation, benefiting future earnings and tangible book value growth.

Zions Bancorporation National Association Earnings and Revenue Growth

Zions Bancorporation National Association Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Zions Bancorporation National Association's revenue will grow by 3.7% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 25.4% today to 23.1% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $818.0 million (and earnings per share of $5.75) by about September 2028, up from $806.0 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $994.6 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $702 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 13.8x on those 2028 earnings, up from 10.4x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Banks industry at 11.9x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.06% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.5%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Zions Bancorporation National Association Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Zions' heavy geographic concentration in the Western United States (notably markets like Nevada, California, Texas, and Utah) exposes it to regional economic volatility-should a downturn hit regional energy, tech, or real estate sectors, this could drive up credit losses and depress long-term earnings stability.
Despite ongoing repricing tailwinds, management acknowledges limited further room for deposit cost reductions-if competition intensifies, or if customer behavior shifts away from noninterest-bearing accounts (which have shown recent erosion), net interest margins and overall profitability could be pressured.
Commercial real estate (CRE) loans account for 22% of Zions' total loan balances; while the portfolio is currently granular and performing well, sector-wide CRE distress or a sharp property value correction could lead to significant loan losses, asset write-downs, and weaker capital ratios.
Zions is investing in digitization and fintech capabilities, but as a mid-sized regional bank, it faces a structural disadvantage to larger peers in terms of technology scale and resources; this may result in persistently higher efficiency ratios and compressed margins if digital disruption accelerates.
Persistent regulatory uncertainty-including the timing and specifics of Basel III Endgame, evolving capital requirements, and potential for rising compliance costs-could constrain Zions' ability to return capital, pursue M&A, or flexibly allocate resources, negatively impacting shareholder returns and long-term earnings growth.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $61.619 for Zions Bancorporation National Association based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $69.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $57.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $3.5 billion, earnings will come to $818.0 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 13.8x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.5%.
Given the current share price of $56.9, the analyst price target of $61.62 is 7.7% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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