Last Update 19 Mar 26

Fair value Decreased 4.01%

EVGO: Charging Network Expansion And 2026 Profitability Outlook Will Support Upside

Analysts have trimmed the average price target on EVgo by about $0.21, reflecting slightly softer long term guidance and updated assumptions on growth, margins, discount rate, and future P/E multiples, while still generally pointing to a constructive multi year thesis for the business.

Analyst Commentary

Street research on EVgo has shifted toward slightly lower price targets, but most covering firms still point to a constructive long term setup, with differences mainly around how quickly the company can execute on its growth and profitability plans.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts generally keep positive ratings in place even as they trim targets, suggesting they still see room for upside relative to current valuation despite more conservative assumptions on multiples and discount rates.
Several reports highlight EVgo as one of the stronger pure play EV charging operators, with one calling it the best pure play in the group and emphasizing medium to long term growth potential as a key part of the thesis.
Commentary around the 2026 outlook points to improving profitability as stall deployments grow, especially in the back half of the year, which supports the view that scale can help margins over time.
The network buildout remains a central pillar of the bullish view, with over 500 DC fast charging stalls added in Q4 and a total of 5,100 stalls at an average utilization of 24%, which bullish analysts see as evidence of meaningful usage across the network.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts focus on softer than anticipated FY26 guidance, which leads them to mark down targets to reflect slower assumed growth or a lower deployment tempo than previously expected.
Target cuts from multiple firms, some fairly substantial, show a more cautious stance on valuation, with analysts resetting price assumptions to reflect sector wide pressure and a more conservative multiple framework.
Commentary around the macro backdrop points to the risk that investor sentiment could stay muted even if the operational story progresses, which can weigh on the share price relative to fundamentals.
Even among supporters, there is emphasis on execution risk, since the thesis relies on continued stall deployments and achieving the profitability improvements outlined in the multi year outlook.

What's in the News

EVgo issued full year 2026 guidance, calling for total revenue in a range of $410 million to $470 million, giving investors a clearer view of expected scale over the next several years (Corporate guidance).
The company outlined plans to roll out more than 500 NACS connectors by the end of this year, following a 2025 pilot of nearly 100 connectors across 22 major metropolitan areas, aiming to serve both Tesla drivers and new NACS equipped models (Product related announcement).
EVgo expects to keep expanding NACS charging through 2026, targeting additional stalls in markets such as Austin, Houston, Las Vegas, Orlando, Phoenix, Chicago, Dallas, Detroit and San Francisco, with NACS service planned in more than 25 states by the end of that year (Product related announcement).
EVgo plans to build at least 150 fast charging stalls a year through 2035 at Kroger Family of Stores locations across the U.S., expanding an existing collaboration that now includes brands such as Kroger, Fred Meyer, Fry's Food Stores and Harris Teeter (Client announcement).
The first new charging site under the expanded Kroger program is already operating in Salt Lake City, with additional locations targeted in Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Texas, Washington and other states, and chargers designed to deliver a full charge in as little as 15 minutes in typical grocery visit timeframes (Client announcement).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: The average fair value estimate has edged down slightly from $5.27 to $5.06.
Discount Rate: The discount rate has risen slightly from 9.11% to 9.37%, which implies a somewhat higher required return on EVgo's cash flows.
Revenue Growth: Forecast revenue growth has been marked lower from 26.51% to 24.72%, which indicates slightly more conservative expectations for top line expansion.
Net Profit Margin: Expected profit margin has been reduced from 5.00% to 4.62%, which reflects a modestly less optimistic view on future profitability.
Future P/E: The assumed future P/E multiple has moved higher from 23.92x to 30.75x, which points to a richer valuation framework despite more conservative operating assumptions.

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Key Takeaways

Improved capital efficiency, strategic financing, and technology investments are driving operating leverage, gross margin growth, and positioning for long-term earnings gains.
Expansion into higher-frequency segments and slower-than-market stall buildout enhances network utilization, supports recurring revenue, and advances market share capture.
Heavy reliance on government incentives, operational reliability challenges, execution risks, and intensifying competition threaten EVgo's margins, growth prospects, and long-term business model sustainability.

Catalysts

About EVgo

Owns and operates a direct current fast charging network for electric vehicles in the United States.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

EVgo has dramatically lowered its net CapEx per stall (down 28% versus initial 2025 projections) through a combination of improved contractor pricing, material sourcing, use of prefabricated skids, and by capturing more state grants and utility incentives-enabling higher projected returns on capital, improved net margins, and stronger long-term earnings growth.
Robust industry demand, as evidenced by forecasts showing U.S. electric vehicles in operation set to quadruple by 2030, while the pace of DC fast charging stall buildouts remains more modest, positions EVgo to benefit from an increasing number of EVs per fast charger, resulting in higher utilization rates, revenue per stall, and improved operating leverage.
Strategic partnerships and expansion into dedicated ultra-fast charging hubs for rideshare, autonomous vehicles, and NACS/Tesla-ready chargers are unlocking new customer segments with high charging frequency and large addressable markets, supporting higher recurring revenue, ancillary revenue growth, and stronger long-term earnings visibility.
The recently secured $225 million+ commercial bank loan facility (expandable to $300 million) and $1.25 billion DOE loan provide EVgo with flexible, low-cost, non-dilutive capital, enabling accelerated network buildout and stall deployment, increased scale, and the ability to capture market share and operating efficiencies – all reinforcing EBITDA and earnings growth.
Ongoing investment in proprietary software, AI-driven customer acquisition/retention, dynamic pricing, and next-gen vertically integrated charging architecture is driving both higher customer satisfaction (e.g., increased throughput, 95%+ success rates) and operating efficiencies, supporting gross margin expansion and further EBITDA improvement over time.

EVgo Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming EVgo's revenue will grow by 29.6% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts are not forecasting that EVgo will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate EVgo's profit margin will increase from -15.6% to the average US Specialty Retail industry of 4.7% in 3 years.
If EVgo's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $31.9 million (and earnings per share of $0.08) by about September 2028, up from $-48.2 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 95.6x on those 2028 earnings, up from -10.7x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Specialty Retail industry at 19.2x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.53%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

EVgo Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Continued reliance on substantial government grants, state incentives, and federal programs for capital offsets exposes EVgo to regulatory risk-should these incentives be reduced or discontinued, future stall build economics and project returns could rapidly deteriorate, pressuring margins and net earnings.
Ongoing industry-wide hardware and software issues, as evidenced by the recent costly firmware and legacy charger maintenance event, highlight operational reliability risks and may result in elevated maintenance expenses or reputational drag, reducing gross margin and customer retention in the long term.
The company's aggressive build schedule, with much of the growth and capital deployment back-half weighted toward 2028–2029, creates significant execution risk; any delays, supply chain bottlenecks, or permitting hurdles could prevent full realization of projected revenue and cash flow targets, constraining long-term EBITDA growth.
Increased competition from better-capitalized companies, especially as larger players enter the DCFC market with competing networks or as vertically integrated automakers (e.g., Tesla) continue to innovate, could compress utilization rates or provoke price wars, directly impacting revenue growth and sustained market share.
The business model's long-term viability is tied to sustained growth in public fast charging demand; secular threats such as higher EV battery ranges, improved battery technology, increased adoption of at-home charging, and potential new charging paradigms (like battery swapping or utility-driven integrations) could dampen utilization, capping revenue per stall and challenging overall top-line growth.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $6.34 for EVgo based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $12.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $3.5.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $671.6 million, earnings will come to $31.9 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 95.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.5%.
Given the current share price of $3.82, the analyst price target of $6.34 is 39.7% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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