Alibaba Group HoldingBABA
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Fair Value
US$147.49
Share price21 Feb
US$114.9722.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
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1Y-4.37%
7D2.35%

Analysis of BABA's recent developments

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Published
21 Feb 26
Views
209
Not Invested

Alibaba is currently in a aggressive transition phase, prioritizing long-term growth over short-term profits. The company is heavily investing in two key areas: AI (with its "Qwen" assistant) and instant commerce (Taobao Flash Sales).

Financially, this is creating a mixed picture. While Q3 FY2026 revenue grew 8% to $280 billion, the massive spending on AI infrastructure (approx. $120 billion in the last four quarters) led to negative free cash flow. However, the strategy is showing promise: AI-related revenue grew triple-digits for the sixth straight quarter, and instant commerce revenue jumped over 50%.

Market sentiment is divided. Bulls (like Jefferies) see the AI integration as a game-changer, while bears worry about falling margins and regulatory risks. In short, BABA is sacrificing current cash flow to bet big on becoming an AI-first, on-demand retail leader.

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Disclaimer

The user MatthewLi holds no position in NYSE:BABA. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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US$254
FV
54.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
22.86%
Revenue growth p.a.
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Fair Value vs Share Price

US$147.49
vs US$114.9722.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
PastFuture02t20152018202120242026202720302031Revenue CN¥1.5tEarnings CN¥187.0b
8.3%
Revenue growth
12.4%
Profit margin

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Company analysis

Very undervalued with excellent balance sheet.

Market capUS$262.3b
PB1.7x
Estimated Growth10.1%
Dividend Yield0.9%
Full analysis

CEO & management

Yongming Wu
CEO
4.3yrs
CEO Tenure

Through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to help merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses in the People's Republic of China and internationally.