Last Update 20 Mar 26

Fair value Increased 0.26%

MGM: Future Buybacks And Las Vegas Recovery Will Support Upside

MGM Resorts International's analyst price target has edged higher to about $42.67 from roughly $42.56, as analysts factor in updated assumptions on discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E, while referencing recent Street research that includes both price target increases and a downgrade.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research on MGM Resorts International reflects a mix of optimism and caution, with several firms adjusting price targets and one high profile downgrade. Here is how analysts are framing the risk reward today.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts lifting price targets by US$1 to US$6 are signaling that, based on their models, the current share price still leaves room for upside if management delivers on execution and capital allocation.
Some bullish analysts see potential upside from improved Las Vegas sentiment and fundamentals in 2026. They view this as an important earnings and cash flow driver for the overall group.
There is optimism around the value of BetMGM, with bullish analysts treating a potential realization of that value as an additional support for equity valuation beyond the core casino operations.
Initiation at a premium price target of US$56, compared with the current average near US$42.67, suggests that at least one bullish house thinks the market is not fully reflecting longer term growth projects, including international expansion.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts lowering price targets, even modestly, are signaling concerns that the prior assumptions on growth, margins or P/E may have been too optimistic relative to current execution risks.
The recent downgrade by Morgan Stanley highlights a view that, at current levels, the risk reward may be less attractive, with more balance between potential upside and downside than before.
Some cautious views imply that expectations for share repurchases, international projects and digital growth could already be partially reflected in the stock, limiting how much re rating they are willing to underwrite.
The presence of both upgrades and a downgrade in a short window suggests that Street conviction is not uniform. This can translate into a more volatile path for the stock if execution or macro inputs differ from analysts’ current assumptions.

What's in the News

MGM Resorts International completed a buyback tranche announced on April 30, 2025, repurchasing 13,558,449 shares (4.98%) for US$484.12 million between October 1, 2025 and February 11, 2026.
Between October 1, 2025 and November 30, 2025, MGM Resorts International repurchased 3,948,991 shares (1.45%) for US$126.81 million, bringing total repurchases under the buyback announced on November 8, 2023 to 55,358,614 shares (18.46%) for US$2.0 billion.
MGM Resorts International recorded goodwill impairment of US$22,794,000 for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025.
MGM Resorts International entered a new Long Term Branding Agreement with MGM China Holdings Limited, effective January 1, 2026, with a term aligned to the current concession through 2032 and a potential extension to as late as December 31, 2045. The license fee is set at 3.5% of MGM China adjusted consolidated net monthly revenues, of which MGM Resorts will receive approximately 66.6%.
Media coverage of Kalshi regulatory actions and fines has referenced MGM Resorts alongside other publicly traded gaming and betting companies as part of the broader sector that could be affected by developments in prediction and wagering markets (Wall Street Journal, GI, Bookies).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: The updated fair value estimate has moved slightly to about $42.67 from roughly $42.56, reflecting small tweaks to the overall model inputs.
Discount Rate: The discount rate used in the analysis has edged down from 12.5% to 12.33%, which modestly increases the present value of projected cash flows.
Revenue Growth: The modeled revenue growth rate has been adjusted from roughly 1.66% to about 1.45%, indicating a slightly more cautious view on top line expansion.
Net Profit Margin: The projected profit margin has shifted from about 3.91% to around 3.42%, pointing to a more conservative stance on future profitability.
Future P/E: The assumed future P/E multiple has moved marginally higher, from about 20.47x to roughly 20.49x, a very small change in the valuation multiple applied to future earnings.

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Key Takeaways

Expanding digital gaming, luxury upgrades, and global resort projects aim to boost high-margin revenues, diversify earnings, and capture new travel demand.
Asset-light operations, automation, and premium segment focus are expected to structurally improve margins and support ongoing earnings growth.
Structural challenges in physical visitation, heavy capital commitments, digital expansion risks, dependence on premium customers, and mounting costs could weaken profitability and financial flexibility.

Catalysts

About MGM Resorts International

Through its subsidiaries, operates as a gaming and entertainment company in the United States, China, and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

MGM's strong focus on expanding its digital gaming and sports betting segments, including BetMGM North America and rapid progress in international markets like Brazil, is expected to unlock higher-margin, faster-growing revenue streams-positively impacting both long-term revenue growth and company EBITDA margins.
Ongoing capital investments in property upgrades, high-end experiential offerings (such as VIP suites, new luxury villas, and exclusive partnerships like Marriott), and strategic renovations are positioned to enhance pricing power and drive RevPAR (revenue per available room), which should support long-term earnings growth and improve profitability per visitor.
The development and opening of international integrated resorts-specifically, the exclusive license in MGM Osaka, anticipated multibillion-dollar revenue potential, and Dubai project-should capture rising demand for destination travel among the growing global middle class, unlocking new recurring revenue streams and diversifying consolidated earnings over the long term.
MGM's ability to leverage urbanization and large-scale event-driven demand (e.g., the "golden triangle" of major Las Vegas venues surrounding MGM properties, growing convention calendars, and sports-driven visitation) is expected to drive stable occupancy, boost non-gaming/ancillary revenues, and support recurring cash flows.
Operational discipline via an asset-light model, increased automation, targeted cost-savings, and focus on higher-margin premium segments is expected to structurally improve net margins and ROI-further supporting robust earnings growth as these strategies scale.

MGM Resorts International Earnings and Revenue Growth

MGM Resorts International Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming MGM Resorts International's revenue will grow by 1.4% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 1.2% today to 3.4% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $625.7 million (and earnings per share of $3.37) by about March 2029, up from $211.1 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $764.5 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $518.9 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the analysts, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 20.5x on those 2029 earnings, down from 42.9x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Hospitality industry at 21.1x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 6.0% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 12.33%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Persistent declines in Las Vegas Strip leisure visitation and international inbound travel, combined with ongoing weakness at MGM's value-oriented properties, indicate structural headwinds for brick-and-mortar demand; this trend could pressure physical property revenues and reduce consolidated margins over time.
Heavy capital deployments into large-scale, long-lead projects-such as MGM Osaka (opening 2030), Dubai (2028+), and potential New York casino investment-expose the company to execution risk, regulatory delays, and potential overextension, which may impact free cash flow, increase leverage, and heighten earnings volatility in the long term.
The digital gaming strategy, particularly MGM's continued investment in Brazil and competitive markets, requires sustained marketing spend and successful execution; failure to achieve projected breakeven or adequate market share could result in prolonged margin dilution from these digital expansions.
Reliance on premium and luxury gaming customers, especially in Macau and Las Vegas, leaves MGM vulnerable to cyclical downturns, regulatory shifts, or disruptions in high-value player demand, which could lead to significant fluctuations in segment EBITDA and overall profitability.
Rising costs-driven by ongoing property renovations/remodels (e.g., MGM Grand), technological upgrades (like OPERA Cloud), inflationary labor pressures, union demands, and environmental compliance-risk outpacing revenue growth in the long run, compressing both net margins and returns on investment.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $42.67 for MGM Resorts International based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $62.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $31.0.
In order for you to agree with the analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2029, revenues will be $18.3 billion, earnings will come to $625.7 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 20.5x, assuming you use a discount rate of 12.3%.
Given the current share price of $35.37, the analyst price target of $42.67 is 17.1% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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