MGM: Future Buybacks And New Las Vegas Packages Will Support Upside

The analyst price target for MGM Resorts International has moved higher by about $1 to roughly $44, as analysts factor in updated expectations for revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E following a mix of recent target hikes and trims across major firms.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research on MGM Resorts International reflects a mix of optimism and caution, with several firms adjusting price targets and at least one rating change to a more neutral stance. Here is how the current commentary breaks down for investors tracking valuation, growth prospects, and execution risk.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts who raised price targets by US$1 to US$6 point to support for a higher implied valuation range, even as some peers trim estimates.
Several upward target revisions, including moves of US$2, US$3 and US$4, indicate that some on the Street see room for upside if MGM executes on its revenue and margin expectations.
Target hikes from large global banks such as JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley suggest that, within that group, there is still confidence in MGM’s ability to justify current or slightly higher P/E assumptions.
The clustering of recent upward revisions supports the view that, for bullish analysts, MGM’s growth and capital allocation plans can still warrant modestly higher fair value estimates.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts have trimmed price targets by US$1 to US$2, signaling concern that prior expectations for revenue, profitability or valuation multiples may have been too optimistic.
The downgrade from Buy to Hold at Jefferies points to a more cautious stance on upside potential from current levels, with greater focus on execution risk versus reward.
Recent target cuts from multiple firms, including at least one adjustment at JPMorgan and reductions at other large banks, highlight worries that MGM could face constraints in meeting prior growth assumptions.
The opposing moves in targets, with some raised and some lowered, underline that the risk and reward profile looks more balanced, which may limit how aggressively some analysts are willing to value the stock on future P/E or margin expansion.

What's in the News

MGM Resorts is launching an all inclusive experience on the Las Vegas Strip, bundling a two night stay, resort fees, three meals per day, show tickets, Big Apple Coaster rides and parking into a single upfront price starting at US$330 plus tax at Luxor and Excalibur, with bookings available directly through MGM channels and no blackout dates (Company event details).
The all inclusive bundle includes six meal vouchers per guest for select MGM restaurants across Luxor, Excalibur, MGM Grand, Mandalay Bay and New York New York, two tickets to one MGM show per stay, self parking at any MGM Las Vegas property and the ability to earn MGM Rewards points, with options to book back to back packages to extend a stay (Company event details).
MGM Resorts completed a share repurchase tranche of 13,558,449 shares, representing 4.98% of the company, for US$484.12m between October 1, 2025 and February 11, 2026 under the buyback announced on April 30, 2025 (Company event details).
Between October 1, 2025 and November 30, 2025, MGM Resorts repurchased 3,948,991 shares, representing 1.45% of the company, for US$126.81m, completing the repurchase of 55,358,614 shares, representing 18.46% for US$2b under the buyback announced on November 8, 2023 (Company event details).
MGM Resorts recorded goodwill impairment of US$22.794m for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025 (Company event details).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value has risen slightly from $42.67 to $43.58, reflecting a modest upward adjustment in the modeled estimate.
Discount Rate is unchanged at 12.33%, so the return hurdle used in the analysis remains consistent with prior assumptions.
Revenue Growth has risen from 1.45% to 1.82%, pointing to somewhat higher expectations for future revenue expansion.
Profit Margin has edged lower from 3.42% to 3.06%, indicating a slightly more conservative view on future profitability.
Future P/E has increased from 20.49x to 22.87x, signaling a higher valuation multiple being applied to MGM’s projected earnings.

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Key Takeaways

Expanding digital gaming, luxury upgrades, and global resort projects aim to boost high-margin revenues, diversify earnings, and capture new travel demand.
Asset-light operations, automation, and premium segment focus are expected to structurally improve margins and support ongoing earnings growth.
Structural challenges in physical visitation, heavy capital commitments, digital expansion risks, dependence on premium customers, and mounting costs could weaken profitability and financial flexibility.

Catalysts

About MGM Resorts International

Through its subsidiaries, operates as a gaming and entertainment company in the United States, China, and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

MGM's strong focus on expanding its digital gaming and sports betting segments, including BetMGM North America and rapid progress in international markets like Brazil, is expected to unlock higher-margin, faster-growing revenue streams-positively impacting both long-term revenue growth and company EBITDA margins.
Ongoing capital investments in property upgrades, high-end experiential offerings (such as VIP suites, new luxury villas, and exclusive partnerships like Marriott), and strategic renovations are positioned to enhance pricing power and drive RevPAR (revenue per available room), which should support long-term earnings growth and improve profitability per visitor.
The development and opening of international integrated resorts-specifically, the exclusive license in MGM Osaka, anticipated multibillion-dollar revenue potential, and Dubai project-should capture rising demand for destination travel among the growing global middle class, unlocking new recurring revenue streams and diversifying consolidated earnings over the long term.
MGM's ability to leverage urbanization and large-scale event-driven demand (e.g., the "golden triangle" of major Las Vegas venues surrounding MGM properties, growing convention calendars, and sports-driven visitation) is expected to drive stable occupancy, boost non-gaming/ancillary revenues, and support recurring cash flows.
Operational discipline via an asset-light model, increased automation, targeted cost-savings, and focus on higher-margin premium segments is expected to structurally improve net margins and ROI-further supporting robust earnings growth as these strategies scale.

MGM Resorts International Earnings and Revenue Growth

MGM Resorts International Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming MGM Resorts International's revenue will grow by 1.8% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 1.1% today to 3.1% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $572.5 million (and earnings per share of $3.22) by about May 2029, up from $187.7 million today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bullish ones expecting earnings as high as $689.1 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the analysts, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 22.9x on those 2029 earnings, down from 52.5x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Hospitality industry at 21.6x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 5.99% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 12.33%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Persistent declines in Las Vegas Strip leisure visitation and international inbound travel, combined with ongoing weakness at MGM's value-oriented properties, indicate structural headwinds for brick-and-mortar demand; this trend could pressure physical property revenues and reduce consolidated margins over time.
Heavy capital deployments into large-scale, long-lead projects-such as MGM Osaka (opening 2030), Dubai (2028+), and potential New York casino investment-expose the company to execution risk, regulatory delays, and potential overextension, which may impact free cash flow, increase leverage, and heighten earnings volatility in the long term.
The digital gaming strategy, particularly MGM's continued investment in Brazil and competitive markets, requires sustained marketing spend and successful execution; failure to achieve projected breakeven or adequate market share could result in prolonged margin dilution from these digital expansions.
Reliance on premium and luxury gaming customers, especially in Macau and Las Vegas, leaves MGM vulnerable to cyclical downturns, regulatory shifts, or disruptions in high-value player demand, which could lead to significant fluctuations in segment EBITDA and overall profitability.
Rising costs-driven by ongoing property renovations/remodels (e.g., MGM Grand), technological upgrades (like OPERA Cloud), inflationary labor pressures, union demands, and environmental compliance-risk outpacing revenue growth in the long run, compressing both net margins and returns on investment.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $43.58 for MGM Resorts International based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $59.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $30.0.
In order for you to agree with the analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2029, revenues will be $18.7 billion, earnings will come to $572.5 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 22.9x, assuming you use a discount rate of 12.3%.
Given the current share price of $38.5, the analyst price target of $43.58 is 11.7% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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