Private Equity Buyout Will Lead To Stable Near-Term Outlook Amid Sector Headwinds

Key Takeaways

• Expanding Apple ecosystem adoption and cross-platform solutions are fueling Jamf's market growth, lowering churn, and positioning for strong recurring revenue as device diversity rises.
  
• Investments in security, AI, and global partnerships are improving cost efficiency, operational scale, and profitability while enhancing customer experience and compliance.
  
• Jamf faces strategic risks from Apple's ecosystem control, market commoditization, sector spending trends, bundled competitors, and the need for rapid security-focused innovation.

Catalysts

Provides management and security solutions for Apple platforms in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, India, Africa, and the Asia Pacific.

• The accelerating global adoption of Apple devices in enterprise, education, healthcare, and specialized verticals continues to expand Jamf's total addressable market, especially as organizations shift to hybrid and mobile-first workplace models-supporting sustained multi-year revenue growth.
  
• Heightened organizational focus on cybersecurity and regulatory compliance is driving stronger demand for integrated security and identity management solutions, as demonstrated by 40% YoY growth in Security ARR and successful cross-sell momentum from the recent Identity Automation acquisition-positively impacting both revenue and net margin expansion.
  
• Jamf's recent move to support Android enrollment while keeping Apple at the center of customer mobile strategies enables the company to win larger, cross-platform deals, reduces customer churn, and increases market share, positioning recurring revenue for outperformance as heterogeneous device environments proliferate.
  
• Strategic investments in AI and automation across operations, product, and customer success are improving cost efficiencies, elevating the customer experience, and driving margin leverage, supporting accelerated earnings and operating margin gains.
  
• Expansion of global channel partnerships and increased focus on enterprise sales and automated SMB solutions will drive top-line growth, operational scalability, and improved net profitability by optimizing go-to-market efficiency and leveraging ecosystem partnerships for international expansion.

Jamf Holding Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Jamf Holding's revenue will grow by 9.8% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts are not forecasting that Jamf Holding will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate Jamf Holding's profit margin will increase from -7.4% to the average US Software industry of 13.1% in 3 years.
• If Jamf Holding's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $115.4 million (and earnings per share of $0.79) by about September 2028, up from $-49.0 million today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 24.1x on those 2028 earnings, up from -24.7x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Software industry at 36.6x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 3.42% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 10.36%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Jamf Holding Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• The increasing adoption of Apple's own native device management and security tools (such as enhancements to Apple Business Manager or managed Apple IDs) poses a significant risk to Jamf's differentiated value proposition, potentially resulting in product commoditization, pricing pressure, and long-term revenue erosion if customers migrate away from best-of-breed, third-party solutions. (Impacts: revenue, net margins)
  
• Jamf's continued reliance on the Apple ecosystem-despite some cross-platform initiatives like new Android enrollment-exposes the company to strategic risks if Apple restricts third-party integrations or modifies its APIs/policies, which could disrupt Jamf's product roadmap and increase customer support and R&D costs. (Impacts: recurring revenue stability, overall net margins)
  
• Consolidation in the Unified Endpoint Management (UEM) market may accelerate, leading to large enterprise IT vendors bundling device management and security as part of broader platforms, thereby reducing Jamf's ability to compete on a standalone basis and putting pressure on both market share and pricing power. (Impacts: topline revenue, gross margins)
  
• Structural trends in public and education sector IT spending-including budgetary constraints, elongated device refresh cycles, and shifting procurement preferences-could slow adoption of specialized device management solutions, pressuring Jamf's core customer base and limiting ARR growth in these high-penetration verticals. (Impacts: ARR growth, customer retention, revenue stability)
  
• Surging cybersecurity threats and changing enterprise security architectures (e.g., shift to zero-trust, focus on network-level rather than device-level security) may demand accelerated R&D and innovation from Jamf; failure to keep pace could erode its competitive position, require higher investment, and compress operating margins. (Impacts: operating margin, R&D expenses, future earnings)

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $14.2 for Jamf Holding based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $23.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $10.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $881.7 million, earnings will come to $115.4 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 24.1x, assuming you use a discount rate of 10.4%.
• Given the current share price of $9.12, the analyst price target of $14.2 is 35.8% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.