Last Update 03 Dec 25

Fair value Increased 1.41%

XPRO: Future Returns Will Reflect Strong Execution And Muted 2026 Outlook

Analysts have modestly raised their price target for Expro Group Holdings to $16 from $15, reflecting a slightly higher fair value estimate of about $14.40 as they balance a solid recent earnings beat against cautious preliminary 2026 guidance.

Analyst Commentary

Analysts view the latest price target increase as a reflection of Expro's solid operational execution in the near term, while also signaling tempered expectations for the company’s medium term growth trajectory.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts highlight the Q3 earnings beat as evidence that Expro is executing well against current contracts and capturing operational efficiencies.
The move to a higher price target is seen as recognition that the stock was previously discounting too much execution risk relative to Expro's demonstrated performance.
Stronger than expected recent results support the view that Expro can sustain healthy cash generation, providing support for the revised valuation range.
Improved visibility into near term activity levels is viewed as a positive for de risking revenue forecasts, even if longer term guidance remains conservative.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts focus on the "somewhat muted" preliminary 2026 outlook, which suggests slower growth beyond the current cycle than previously anticipated.
The stock's underperformance following the earnings beat is seen as a sign that investors are wary of paying up for the name until longer term growth drivers are clearer.
Cautious 2026 guidance raises questions about the sustainability of current margin and revenue momentum, limiting upside to the new price target.
Some remain concerned that valuation is now closer to fair value, leaving less room for multiple expansion if execution or market conditions soften.

What's in the News

Completed the first deployment of the ELITE Composition service in an exploration well offshore Cyprus, delivering near real time, lab quality fluid analysis at the rig site to speed reservoir evaluation and development planning (Client Announcements).
Executed a share repurchase of 2,076,782 shares in Q3 2025, bringing total buybacks under the June 2022 program to 7,206,553 shares, or 6.33% of shares outstanding, for $87.26 million (Buyback Tranche Update).
Achieved the first full deployment of the Remote Clamp Installation System in the UK North Sea, automating control line clamp installation, increasing running efficiency by 25%, and reducing clamp installation time by about 50% per clamp (Product Related Announcements).
Set a world record heavy casing deployment in the Gulf of America using the Blackhawk Gen III Wireless Top Drive Cement Head with SKYHOOK, establishing what it reports is the only three million pound rated cementing system in the industry (Client Announcements).

Valuation Changes

The fair value estimate has risen slightly to about $14.40 from $14.20, reflecting a modest improvement in the underlying valuation model.
The discount rate remains approximately 7.21%, indicating no meaningful change in the assumed cost of capital.
Revenue growth is unchanged at about 11.48%, effectively leaving the long-term growth outlook the same.
The net profit margin remains roughly 6.50%, suggesting virtually no change in profitability assumptions.
The future P/E has risen modestly to about 18.0x from 17.8x, implying a small increase in the multiple investors are assumed to pay for forward earnings.

Strong global demand and energy security trends support Expro's growing backlog, market position, and forward revenue visibility in key offshore and international sectors.
Technology advancement, portfolio diversification, and operational initiatives drive sustainable margin expansion, resilient revenue streams, and improved profitability versus competitors.
Exposure to geopolitical, regulatory, and energy transition risks threatens revenue growth, margin stability, and long-term demand for offshore oilfield services.

Catalysts

About Expro Group Holdings

Provides energy services in North and Latin America, Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, and the Asia-Pacific.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Expro's robust order intake and expanding backlog are supported by ongoing growth in global energy demand, particularly in international and offshore markets, positioning the company for steady long-term revenue growth as multiyear deepwater and international projects progress.
Increased geopolitical tensions and the global push for energy security and supply diversification are driving sustained investments in well construction, flow management, and related services where Expro holds leading technological positions, supporting higher forward revenue visibility and backlog.
Accelerated development and deployment of advanced digital and automation technologies, such as remote operations and AI-driven tools, are enhancing operational efficiency and margin expansion, creating potential for further net margin and earnings improvements as adoption grows.
Realization of synergies from recent M&A, continuous operational cost initiatives (Drive25), and a scalable integrated services portfolio are enabling sustainable EBITDA margin expansion and improved free cash flow generation, positioning Expro to outperform peers on profitability.
Diversification into production optimization, well integrity, and technology-enabled brownfield services aligns with the industry's prolonged focus on asset integrity and operational efficiency, supporting more resilient recurring revenue streams and higher margin contributions.

Expro Group Holdings Earnings and Revenue Growth

Expro Group Holdings Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Expro Group Holdings's revenue will decrease by 0.3% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 4.3% today to 4.9% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $83.2 million (and earnings per share of $0.72) by about August 2028, up from $71.3 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 18.3x on those 2028 earnings, up from 17.6x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Energy Services industry at 13.5x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 4.51% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.72%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Expro Group Holdings Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The company's heavy reliance on international and offshore oil and gas projects exposes it to heightened geopolitical, regulatory, and operational risks in volatile regions, which could drive up costs, disrupt operations, and negatively impact net margins and earnings over time.
Long-term secular shifts toward decarbonization, net-zero targets, and increased global adoption of renewables threaten to structurally reduce demand for oilfield services, potentially shrinking Expro's addressable market and eroding future revenue growth.
Customer caution and a moderated pace of new deepwater and ultra-deepwater project approvals, combined with deferment in short-cycle (OpEx-related) activity, indicate potential stagnation or contraction in upstream spending, which could constrain revenue growth and pressure earnings.
High customer concentration with supermajors and national oil companies (NOCs) means future revenues are vulnerable to contract renewals, pricing pressures, and shifting capital allocation as customers pursue energy transition strategies, impacting long-term revenue stability.
Growing ESG and climate-related disclosure requirements, as well as stricter global environmental regulations and well abandonment liabilities, may lead to higher compliance and operational costs, resulting in downward pressure on net margins and profitability.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $12.2 for Expro Group Holdings based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $15.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $10.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $1.7 billion, earnings will come to $83.2 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 18.3x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.7%.
Given the current share price of $10.84, the analyst price target of $12.2 is 11.1% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

XPRO: Offshore Diversification And Market Challenges Will Shape Performance Ahead