Last Update 05 Jan 26

Fair value Increased 1.71%

NYT: Visual Journalism Expansion And Subscription Durability Will Shape Future Returns

The analyst price target for New York Times has been raised from US$65.75 to US$66.88, as analysts point to recent research highlighting stronger net adds, solid financial results, and higher revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 as support for a slightly higher assumed future P/E multiple.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish analysts are tying their higher price targets to what they see as a solid blend of user growth, engagement, and revenue visibility, which they view as constructive for New York Times' valuation over the next few years.

Bullish Takeaways

Recent quarters are described as strong across both net adds and financials, which bullish analysts see as reinforcing confidence in the subscription model and its ability to support a higher P/E multiple.
The broad portfolio of products is viewed as providing a long runway to keep growing subscribers and engagement, which they see as important for sustaining revenue over time.
Raised revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are interpreted as a sign that visibility into future growth is improving, supporting the case for a modestly higher valuation framework.
Consistent execution on both subscriber growth and monetization is seen as reducing perceived risk around the business model, which bullish analysts link to a willingness to nudge targets higher.

Bearish Takeaways

The price target increase is relatively modest, which can signal that some analysts see limited room for multiple expansion from current levels without further upside in fundamentals.
Expectations for sustained subscriber and engagement growth, as well as improved monetization, set a higher execution bar, leaving less room for operational missteps before valuation could be questioned.
Higher revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 raise the stakes for delivery, since any shortfall versus these projections could put pressure on both sentiment and assumed future P/E multiples.
With the thesis reliant on continued strength across net adds and financials, bearish analysts may argue that the story is becoming more sensitive to any slowdown in subscriber momentum.

What's in the News

New York Times launched a TikTok style Watch tab inside its main app, offering a swipeable vertical video feed with short clips across its content portfolio, focused on mobile visual journalism (ADWEEK).
From July 1, 2025 to October 31, 2025, the company repurchased 693,336 shares (0.43%) for US$39.39 million, completing a total of 4,039,745 shares (2.47%) for US$207 million under the buyback announced on February 8, 2023.
Over the same July 1, 2025 to October 31, 2025 period, the company reported no share repurchases under the buyback announced on February 5, 2025, with totals remaining at 0 shares and US$0.

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: updated from US$65.75 to US$66.88, a small upward adjustment in the implied fundamental value per share.
Discount Rate: essentially unchanged at about 6.96%, indicating a steady assumed cost of capital in the model.
Revenue Growth: kept effectively flat at around 6.87%, suggesting no material change to the long term top line growth assumption.
Net Profit Margin: maintained at roughly 15.00%, with only a minimal technical adjustment in the model inputs.
Future P/E: nudged higher from 25.67x to 26.11x, reflecting a slightly higher assumed valuation multiple on future earnings.

Digital subscription and bundled offerings growth, supported by proprietary tech and personalization, is boosting recurring revenue, engagement, and operating margins.
Strong demand for reliable journalism, strategic partnerships, and global expansion are driving subscriber growth, diversified revenue, and improved earnings resilience.
Tech-driven shifts in traffic, increased commoditization, and pricing pressures threaten audience growth, revenue stability, and margins, despite ongoing investments in content and product development.

Catalysts

About New York Times

The New York Times Company, together with its subsidiaries, creates, collects, and distributes news and information worldwide.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Robust growth in digital subscriptions driven by an expanding portfolio of bundled offerings (news, Cooking, Games, The Athletic) and a focus on direct consumer relationships positions the company to capture more recurring revenue, strengthen ARPU, and reduce churn; this directly supports long-term revenue and margin expansion.
Rising global demand for trusted, high-quality journalism amid increasing misinformation is enabling NYT to increase its international reach and subscription base, paving the way for sustained top-line growth and a larger addressable market.
Strategic partnerships, such as the Amazon AI licensing agreement, are monetizing NYT's intellectual property with new forms of distribution and use cases, providing incremental, diversified revenue streams that bolster earnings resilience and support ongoing free cash flow growth.
Significant investment in digital-first video, audio, and app experiences increases user engagement, audience retention, and cross-selling opportunities, improving both subscriber growth and advertising efficiency-impacting overall revenue and operating leverage.
Effective use of proprietary technology and AI for personalization, content targeting, and advertising yield management is driving higher engagement and monetization, unlocking margin expansion and enabling scalable earnings growth.

New York Times Earnings and Revenue Growth

New York Times Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming New York Times's revenue will grow by 6.7% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 12.0% today to 15.1% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $487.8 million (and earnings per share of $3.07) by about September 2028, up from $320.4 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 24.7x on those 2028 earnings, down from 29.6x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Media industry at 20.3x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.69% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.78%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

New York Times Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Moves by large tech companies (e.g., AI-generated overviews from Google and ChatGPT) are leading to less referral traffic for publishers, including NYT, raising the risk of audience erosion and limiting top-of-funnel growth, which could impair long-term subscriber growth and future revenue potential.
Increasing adoption of generative AI and content aggregation tools by platforms could contribute to commoditizing news content, undermining the differentiation and perceived value of NYT's journalism, and potentially slowing ARPU growth and threatening subscription and licensing revenues.
The ongoing proliferation of bundled and promotional pricing strategies (e.g., 6 or 12-month intro offers) to drive subscriber conversion may eventually limit NYT's ability to sustainably grow ARPU, and may lead to higher churn after price step-ups, putting pressure on net margins and revenue stability.
NYT's substantial investments in high-quality journalism, new content formats (like video and audio), and product development could result in meaningfully rising operating costs, especially as competition to retain top talent grows, potentially squeezing net margins over the long term.
Dependency on large platform partnerships (such as with Amazon for AI licensing) creates risk that future deal terms may not be as favorable, or that greater consolidation among tech companies will further limit NYT's ability to control distribution or monetize its content, which could negatively affect licensing revenue and overall financial results.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $62.25 for New York Times based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $70.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $52.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $3.2 billion, earnings will come to $487.8 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 24.7x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.8%.
Given the current share price of $58.24, the analyst price target of $62.25 is 6.4% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Trusted Journalism And Digital Subscriptions Will Expand Global Reach