Last Update 14 Apr 26

Fair value Increased 2.57%

OKE: Future Gas Demand And Diversified Footprint Will Support Upside

ONEOK's analyst price target has been raised from $108.00 to about $110.77, as analysts factor in updated views on revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E expectations, reflected in recent target hikes and rating changes across major firms.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research updates on ONEOK focus on higher price targets and rating shifts that signal improving confidence in the company’s execution and earnings power. While there are some mixed views, the direction of the average target move points to a constructive tone on valuation and growth prospects.

Bullish analysts have raised targets across a wide range, from the low US$80s up toward the low US$90s, often while maintaining or upgrading ratings. These moves reflect updated assumptions on revenue, margins and future P/E levels, as analysts reassess how ONEOK’s assets and footprint could support earnings over the coming years.

Some firms also describe the upcoming years as a reset period, especially around 2026 guidance that is characterized as essentially flat with 2025. Even so, several research notes still support higher targets, suggesting that any transition phase is already being incorporated into current valuation thinking rather than being treated as a surprise risk.

Across the more constructive reports, commentary highlights ONEOK’s diversified footprint and operating leverage, particularly in relation to future gas demand and base gathering and processing volumes. This mix of assets and operating profile is presented as an important part of the bullish case that ONEOK can support its current valuation and, under more favorable conditions, potentially justify the higher targets seen in recent updates.

Bullish Takeaways

Several bullish analysts have raised ONEOK’s price targets into a higher range, including moves to US$82, US$85, US$89 and US$91, indicating that current execution and asset quality are being valued more favorably than before.
Research citing ONEOK’s diversified footprint and significant operating leverage points to potential upside if gas demand across lower tier basins grows over time, which supports a more constructive view on long term earnings power and valuation.
Even where 2026 guidance is described as a transition year and essentially flat with 2025, some bullish analysts still keep positive ratings and higher targets, suggesting they see current expectations as already embedding this pause in growth.
Comments that the equity appears appropriately de risked after prior share price weakness imply that, for some bullish analysts, near term execution risks and questions around growth without commodity tailwinds are now better reflected in the stock’s P/E and return potential.

What's in the News

ONEOK issued 2026 guidance with expected net income of US$3.19b to US$3.71b and earnings per diluted share of US$5.04 to US$5.87, along with detailed volume expectations across natural gas liquids, refined products, crude oil and natural gas processing (Corporate Guidance).
The board approved a quarterly dividend of US$1.07 per share, described as a 4% increase, resulting in an annualized dividend of US$4.28 per share, payable on February 13, 2026 to shareholders of record on February 2, 2026 (Dividend Increases).
ONEOK completed a share repurchase tranche, buying back 611,237 shares for US$44.49m in Q4 2025, and in total 2,476,237 shares for US$233.64m under the buyback announced on January 17, 2024 (Buyback Tranche Update).
ONEOK is involved in Federal Energy Regulatory Commission proceedings related to an amended protective order. The Presiding Administrative Law Judge adopted an order that preserves the ability of participants to challenge privilege designations and sets detailed rules for handling confidential information (Regulatory Authority: Compliance).
ONEOK and related entities submitted a filing to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission as non parties in consolidated Colonial Pipeline proceedings, addressing the scope and terms of an amended protective order covering highly confidential data and the use of subpoenaed documents at hearings (Regulatory Authority: Compliance).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: Updated from $108.00 to $110.77, reflecting a modest upward move in the implied valuation range.
Discount Rate: Adjusted slightly lower from 7.13% to 7.03%, indicating a small change in the assumed risk profile used in the model.
Revenue Growth: Revised from 6.09% to 13.26%, representing a sizeable shift in expected top line expansion assumptions.
Net Profit Margin: Reset from 11.23% to 9.25%, indicating a lower share of revenue expected to convert to earnings.
Future P/E: Updated from 19.00x to 19.38x, showing a small increase in the multiple assumed on future earnings.

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Key Takeaways

Accelerated infrastructure buildout, successful asset integration, and market positioning are driving operational efficiencies, segment margin expansion, and higher-than-expected growth prospects.
Increasing free cash flow and strategic advantages enable stronger deleveraging, dividend growth, and shareholder returns above consensus estimates.
Exposure to declining fossil fuel demand, regional concentration, acquisition risks, contract renewals, and growing ESG pressures threatens long-term revenue, profitability, and financial flexibility.

Catalysts

About ONEOK

Operates as a midstream service provider of gathering, processing, fractionation, transportation, storage, and marine export services in the United States.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Analyst consensus expects growth from organic projects and synergy capture, but the scale and pace of recent volume ramp-ups, record-setting throughput, and the opportunity to blend and move higher-margin products via new connections suggest EBITDA and revenue growth could materially overshoot current forecasts as infrastructure comes online ahead of schedule and at high utilization.
While analysts broadly acknowledge synergies from recent acquisitions, the full integration of Magellan, EnLink, and Medallion assets has unlocked a far deeper layer of one-off and recurring operational efficiencies and product optimization than market models capture, likely resulting in segment margin expansion well above consensus estimates.
ONEOK's direct exposure to surging U.S. LNG export demand and growing petrochemical sector consumption, especially through Gulf Coast connectivity and new export terminals, positions the company for multi-year step changes in pipeline and export volumes, supporting durable, above-trend revenue and earnings growth into 2027 and beyond.
The build-out of large-scale, integrated midstream infrastructure in cost-advantaged U.S. shale basins, alongside dedicated acreage and increased control over Delaware Basin operations, gives ONEOK a structural cost and market access advantage that should meaningfully increase fee-based revenues, protect margins, and accelerate free cash flow growth.
Enhanced free cash flow, underpinned by tax reform benefits and declining CapEx after 2026, gives ONEOK substantial dry powder for accelerated deleveraging, dividend growth, and potential buybacks, providing multiple avenues for outsized EPS growth and shareholder return above current market expectations.

ONEOK Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

This narrative explores a more optimistic perspective on ONEOK compared to the consensus, based on a Fair Value that aligns with the bullish cohort of analysts.
The bullish analysts are assuming ONEOK's revenue will grow by 13.3% annually over the next 3 years.
The bullish analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 10.1% today to 9.3% in 3 years time.
The bullish analysts expect earnings to reach $4.5 billion (and earnings per share of $7.62) by about April 2029, up from $3.4 billion today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as $3.9 billion.
In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the more bullish analyst cohort, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 19.4x on those 2029 earnings, up from 15.8x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Oil and Gas industry at 15.0x.
The bullish analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.82% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.03%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Acceleration of the global energy transition towards renewables and electrification poses a long-term risk of declining natural gas and NGL demand, leading to potential volume declines and underutilized assets, which would pressure both revenues and asset values.
ONEOK's concentration of assets and earnings in the U.S. Midcontinent and Permian Basin increases its vulnerability to local production slowdowns, lack of geographic diversification, and regional competition, resulting in potential revenue volatility and lower earnings growth.
Integration risks and elevated debt levels after recent acquisitions, including Magellan Midstream and EnLink, may constrain financial flexibility and raise interest expenses, which could compress net margins and limit future earnings growth.
ONEOK's long-term growth depends significantly on contract renewals and throughput volumes, but as contracts expire, there is a risk of customers renegotiating lower tariffs or allowing volume declines, directly pressuring future revenues and margins.
Continued regulatory and investor focus on ESG factors and decarbonization, along with rising capital costs for fossil fuel infrastructure, may restrict ONEOK's access to financing and increase compliance costs, eroding profitability over the long term.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The assumed bullish price target for ONEOK is $110.77, which represents up to two standard deviations above the consensus price target of $92.9. This valuation is based on what can be assumed as the expectations of ONEOK's future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors from analysts on the bullish end of the spectrum.
However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $113.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $74.0.
In order for you to agree with the more bullish analyst cohort, you'd need to believe that by 2029, revenues will be $48.9 billion, earnings will come to $4.5 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 19.4x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.0%.
Given the current share price of $85.33, the analyst price target of $110.77 is 23.0% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystHighTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystHighTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystHighTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Integrated Midstream Assets Will Leverage Secular US Energy Demand