Last Update 24 Mar 26

Fair value Decreased 2.53%

SMR: DOE Fuel Support And ENTRA1 Progress Will Drive Long Term Deployment

The updated analyst price target for NuScale Power edges down by about $0.54, with analysts citing a mix of reduced P/E expectations, a slightly higher discount rate, and ongoing commercialization timelines that still rely on long, multi-step project decisions.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research on NuScale Power points to a mixed setup, with several price target cuts clustered together and a wide range of views on execution risk, funding, and commercialization timelines. Analysts are recalibrating expectations rather than converging on a single view, which leaves both upside and downside scenarios in active discussion.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts still see commercialization as achievable, highlighting incremental progress on projects such as RoPower and ENTRA1/TVA, even if the path to Final Investment Decision (FID) is lengthy.
Some bullish views lean on NuScale Power's liquidity profile, with reference to a reported US$1.3b liquidity position at the end of 2025 and access to an additional US$1b at the market program as support for ongoing development and project bids.
Optimistic commentary points to long term potential in NuScale Power's business model, with some analysts maintaining Overweight or equivalent positive ratings despite sizeable cuts to price targets.
Upgrades to more positive ratings, even with reduced targets, suggest that some analysts see recent share price levels as already discounting many execution and funding risks.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts emphasize valuation risk, often cutting price targets sharply, for example from levels such as US$45 or US$55 to the mid teens or around US$20, which signals a more conservative stance on what investors may be willing to pay for the current execution profile.
There is caution around near term headwinds, including active share sales by a major shareholder like Fluor and potential pressure from the use of at the market programs, which can weigh on share price performance.
Several research notes flag the lengthy and complex process to reach FID on key projects as a core execution risk, with the timeline and multi step decision structure adding uncertainty to revenue conversion.
Some bearish views, including those tied to Sell or Equal Weight style ratings, suggest that recent price levels may already reflect much of the long term opportunity, while near term news flow around project delays or funding could still create downside volatility.

What's in the News

The U.S. Department of Energy is pursuing an initiative aimed at boosting the nuclear fuel supply chain, which is relevant for companies developing small modular reactors such as NuScale Power (CNBC).
NuScale Power and Ebara Elliott Energy launched a research program to design and field test a high temperature steam compressor that would link NuScale Power Modules with petrochemical plants needing process heat, with compressor completion targeted for 2027 and field testing candidates now being sought.
Framatome and NuScale Power expanded their fuel fabrication partnership to include Framatome’s European facilities and issued notice for the Richland, Washington site to qualify and produce at least 444 fuel assemblies for NuScale’s first U.S. customer as early as 2030.
NuScale Power filed a US$1b at the market follow on equity offering of Class A common stock and separately withdrew a planned US$750m at the market follow on offering of the same security.
A class action lawsuit was filed on behalf of purchasers of NuScale Power Class A common stock between May 13, 2025 and November 6, 2025, alleging misleading disclosures around the ENTRA1 commercialization partnership and its impact on expenses and NuScale’s commercialization strategy.

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: updated to $20.73 from $21.27, a small move lower in the modeled estimate.
Discount Rate: adjusted slightly higher to 9.27% from 9.20%, indicating a modestly higher required return in the model.
Revenue Growth: updated assumption to 119.02% from 108.86%, indicating a higher modeled growth rate for future revenue in dollars.
Profit Margin: held essentially flat at 11.10%, with no material change in the modeled long-term profitability level.
Future P/E: reduced to 287.27x from 339.22x, reflecting a lower valuation multiple applied to expected earnings.

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Key Takeaways

NuScale's advanced SMR commercialization and partnerships position it well for accelerated revenue growth and immediate deployment in competitive energy markets.
Efficiency improvements and strategic focus on reducing expenses are expected to enhance profitability and support margin expansion.
Challenges in securing agreements, funding uncertainties, and potential supply chain issues threaten cash flow, earnings, and profitability, despite project advancements.

Catalysts

About NuScale Power

Provides small modular reactor technology solutions.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

NuScale's involvement in the RoPower 6-module small modular reactor (SMR) power plant in Romania indicates future meaningful revenue and cash flow through its partnership in the Fluor-led Front-End Engineering and Design (FEED) Phase 2. This project enhances NuScale's revenue prospects.
With an NRC-approved SMR technology and the commitment of over $2 billion towards its development and licensing, NuScale is uniquely positioned for immediate commercial deployment compared to competitors focused solely on demonstration plans. This potentially accelerates revenue growth once commercial operations commence.
NuScale is advancing the manufacturing of long-lead materials for 12 modules, anticipating customer demand, which supports a smooth production ramp-up, reducing delivery times significantly, and potentially boosting future revenue and earnings.
Significant demand for nuclear energy, especially from AI-driven data centers like Microsoft and Meta, could lead to increased interest and order placements for NuScale’s SMR technology. This could materially increase future revenues as data centers triple their energy use by 2028.
NuScale's focus on reducing operating expenses, as noted by the substantial year-over-year decrease, could lead to improved net margins. Efficiency improvements transitioning from R&D to commercialization are likely to enhance profitability and support margin expansion.

NuScale Power Earnings and Revenue Growth

NuScale Power Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming NuScale Power's revenue will grow by 119.0% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts are not forecasting that NuScale Power will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate NuScale Power's profit margin will increase from -1130.3% to the average US Electrical industry of 11.1% in 3 years.
If NuScale Power's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $36.7 million (and earnings per share of $0.09) by about March 2029, up from -$355.8 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the analysts, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 287.5x on those 2029 earnings, up from -10.5x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Electrical industry at 31.4x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 9.27%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The complexity and negotiation challenges of securing long-term power purchase agreements with prospective customers could delay revenue generation and impact cash flow projections.
The U.S. government grant-related uncertainties and the administrative process of securing additional funding highlight a possible risk to future liquidity and investment inflow, potentially affecting financial stability and development timelines.
Potential bottlenecks in the supply chain or manufacturing process for the small modular reactors, despite current advancements, could lead to increased operational costs and affect net margins.
The dependence on the successful commercialization of ENTRA1 Energy projects and the potential delays in customer acquisition for NuScale's long-lead modules pose a risk to revenue forecasts and earnings projections.
The ongoing regulatory approval process with the NRC for the power upgrade and overall project complexity may result in unanticipated expenses or timeline shifts, impacting future earnings and profitability.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $20.73 for NuScale Power based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $52.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $8.0.
In order for you to agree with the analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2029, revenues will be $330.7 million, earnings will come to $36.7 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 287.5x, assuming you use a discount rate of 9.3%.
Given the current share price of $11.7, the analyst price target of $20.73 is 43.6% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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