Missile Defense And Private Space Infrastructure Will Drive Long Term Upside Potential

Catalysts

About Voyager Technologies

Voyager Technologies develops advanced defense and space systems spanning missile defense, satellite infrastructure and commercial space stations.

What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

• Escalating global focus on missile defense, including Golden Dome and next-generation interceptor architectures, is expanding funded programs where Voyager already holds critical propulsion and guidance roles. This supports sustained revenue growth and rising earnings power as awards convert from development to production.
• The rapid shift toward lower cost launches and proliferated LEO constellations is increasing demand for integrated electric propulsion, advanced sensing and resilient communications. Recent acquisitions such as ExoTerra, BridgeComm and EMSI are expected to lift segment revenue and structurally improve gross margins.
• Commercial replacement of the ISS with privately developed infrastructure is converging with NASA funding and international demand. This positions Starlab as a potential multi-decade platform that can transition from milestone receipts to higher margin recurring service and utilization revenue, which could enhance free cash flow and long-term earnings.
• Growing prioritization of on-orbit edge computing and AI-enabled surveillance for contested environments is creating a premium for Voyager's investments in Latent AI and radar analytics. This enables higher value software and SaaS-based offerings that can expand net margins and increase the mix of recurring earnings.
• Heightened emphasis on resilient, U.S.-based supply chains for critical space and defense hardware is steering procurement toward vertically integrated, domestically manufactured solutions. Voyager's expanding U.S. production footprint and IP-rich stack may allow the company to capture higher content per program and support margin expansion as scale improves EBITDA.

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

• Analysts are assuming Voyager Technologies's revenue will grow by 66.4% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts are not forecasting that Voyager Technologies will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate Voyager Technologies's profit margin will increase from -63.8% to the average US Aerospace & Defense industry of 8.4% in 3 years.
• If Voyager Technologies's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $61.0 million (and earnings per share of $0.84) by about December 2028, up from $-100.5 million today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the analysts, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 59.3x on those 2028 earnings, up from -16.8x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Aerospace & Defense industry at 38.0x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.58%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

• Starlab is positioned as a once in a generation growth engine, yet its economic viability depends on NASA timelines holding, successful completion of the critical design review and a Phase 2 contract award in early 2026. Any delay in government budgets, shutdowns or shifting ISS replacement priorities could push out commercialization, which would defer the expected multibillion dollar space infrastructure revenue and free cash flow ramp and prolong negative earnings.
• Despite strong demand signals in missile defense and space, Voyager is still reporting adjusted EBITDA losses that widened year over year as it invests ahead of growth. If booked contracts or Golden Dome and NGI follow on awards materialize more slowly than expected while operating expenses continue to rise, margin expansion could be delayed and losses could persist, putting pressure on earnings and cash conversion.
• The growth strategy relies heavily on acquisitions and a rapidly expanding technology stack across propulsion, edge AI, radar analytics and communications. Integration risk, execution missteps or overpayment for targets could prevent expected revenue synergies and gross margin accretion from being realized, which would weigh on both revenue growth quality and long term net margins.
• Voyager is highly exposed to U.S. defense and NASA budgets, including large programs such as NGI, Golden Dome and CLD. Over the long term, changes in geopolitical priorities, budget caps, program restructurings or increased competition from primes and neoprimes could reduce award sizes or slow new wins, leading to weaker backlog growth, lower visibility and softer revenue than implied by the current pipeline.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $39.83 for Voyager Technologies based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
  
• However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $45.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $25.0.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $725.7 million, earnings will come to $61.0 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 59.3x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.6%.
  
• Given the current share price of $28.35, the analyst price target of $39.83 is 28.8% higher.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.