This is an initial draft of the Narrative
TL;DR
- Ondas stock price has grown an astonishing 1,314% for the last year (from $0.76 to $10.75 USD)
- Ondas had 300% earnings growth compared to 2024 if we believe on the Q4 guidance (created based on 2025 q4 guidance)
- Leadership expects a 3x growth in 2026
- A Fair Value of 17.83 if you expect the company to grow 250% on the following 5y, with a profit margin of 4% and discount rate of 10% to take into account current global risks (leaving Future PE to industry levels). That would mean current price is undervalued ~40%.
- A safer valuation with a growth of 200% for the next 5y, with a profit margin of 4% and discount rate of 10% to take into account current global risks (leaving Future PE to industry levels) would indicate that current stock price is 30% overvalued
2025 Q3 Earnings summary
Financials & guidance
- Q3 revenue $10.1m (+580% y/y, +~60% q/q); OAS drove ~$10m of that.
- Gross profit $2.6m (26% margin). Adjusted EBITDA loss $8.8m; operating loss $15.5m.
- Cash: $433m at Sept 30, 2025; company says ~ $855m raised since June (pro forma cash ~$840m after Oct offering before Q4 uses).
- Backlog: $23.3m consolidated (>$40m including recent acquisitions).
- Updated guidance: FY2025 revenue target raised to at least $36m (Q4 >$15m); 2026 target at least $110m.
- Target gross margin ~50% long-term; management expects operating businesses EBITDA-positive in H2 2026.
Business & strategy
- Core+ strategy: move from standalone tech to a “system of systems” (air, ground, sensing, comms) via organic scaling + M&A.
- Ondas Capital launched — up to $150m to scale combat‑proven tech from Ukraine/allies into US/EU production; investor day planned in Dec.
- OAS (Ondas Autonomous Systems): scaling production, services and field support; focus on counter‑UAS (Iron Drone, Optimus) and recurring services over time.
- Ondas Networks: dot16 wireless progress — AAR Wireless Communications Committee selected dot16 for AAR frequencies (900, 450, 160 MHz); trials and early production deliveries planned (e.g., Northeast corridor ACSES units, HoT/EoT work with vendors).
- M&A: multiple strategic buys announced (Sentrycs, Apeiro Motion, Forum Defense, SPO, Zickel, Insight Intelligence sensors); 20+ targets in pipeline, 7 in advanced talks.
- Sentrycs (definitive agreement) adds Cyber‑over‑RF (CoRF) soft‑kill counter‑UAS; management says field proven with high gross margins (upper 70s %) and rapid growth/200+ deployments globally. Integration with Iron Drone to provide layered detect-to-defeat solution.
Operational notes
- OAS backlog and pipeline maturing; expecting strong Q4 orders and production ramp with U.S.-built systems available Q1 2026.
- Management: investing in leadership, ops, and U.S. supply chain; cash operating spend rose in Q3 but company expects leveraging as revenue scales.
- Revenue mix: near-term dominated by product/system sales (defense buys); commercial recurring DaaS/servitization expected to grow over time.
Q&A highlights
- 2026 guidance excludes further unannounced M&A (includes announced deals, including Sentrycs).
- Management sees potential for significant upside from M&A pipeline but did not quantify timing/conversion.
- Expect margins to improve in 2026; reiterated ~50% gross margin target as reasonable.
- Operating businesses expected to be EBITDA-positive by H2 2026; holding-company costs remain to be covered later.
- Counter‑UAS deployments can cost millions per site; recurring fees expected depending on configuration.
Bottom line Ondas signaled a step change: record Q3 revenue, a large capital raise, aggressive M&A and product integrations (notably Sentrycs) aimed at creating a multi‑domain defense/security platform. Guidance is ambitious (≥$110m in 2026) with management forecasting improving margins and EBITDA positivity at the operating‑company level in H2 2026; execution on integration, commercialization of dot16, and M&A realization are the main value drivers and risks.
About 2025 Q4 Guidance
Ondas released preliminary fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on March 9, 2026. The final results for Q4 and full-year 2025 are scheduled to be reported on March 25, 2026. The previous full earnings report was for Q3 2025, released on November 13, 2025.
Key Details from Preliminary Q4/Full Year 2025 Release (March 9, 2026):
- Preliminary Revenue (Q4 2025): $29.1–$30.1 million.
- Preliminary Revenue (Full Year 2025): $49.7–$50.7 million.
- Revenue Guidance (2026): Reiterated $170–$180 million, ahead of new acquisitions.
- Final Report Date: March 25, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Previous Quarter Results (Q3 2025):
- Release Date: November 13, 2025.
- Revenue: $10.1 million.
- EPS: -$0.03 to -$0.06 (mixed reports on exact EPS).
Key take aways before Q4 Earnings - Quarterly Comparison
Key takeways - Yearly Comparison
Notes:
- FY2025 column uses the company’s preliminary full‑year revenue range ($49.7–$50.7M) from the March 9, 2026 release; many full‑year P&L and balance‑sheet line items for FY2025 were not disclosed in that preliminary notice. Where available, LTM (to 2025‑09‑30) figures are shown in parentheses for context; final FY2025 results were expected on Mar 25, 2026.
- Key visible changes: large revenue growth driven by OAS and acquisitions, materially higher cash/equity from 2025 equity raises, substantial share dilution, and improved gross margin at LTM — while net losses and negative EBITDA remain in absolute terms through the LTM period.
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Disclaimer
DownUnder is an employee of Simply Wall St, but has written this narrative in their capacity as an individual investor. DownUnder holds no position in NasdaqCM:ONDS. Simply Wall St has no position in any companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimate's are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
