Ondas needs to keep a 3x growth to support current stock price

This is an initial draft of the Narrative

TL;DR

• Ondas stock price has grown an astonishing 1,314% for the last year (from $0.76 to $10.75 USD)
• Ondas had 300% earnings growth compared to 2024 if we believe on the Q4 guidance (created based on 2025 q4 guidance)
• Leadership expects a 3x growth in 2026
• A Fair Value of 17.83 if you expect the company to grow 250% on the following 5y, with a profit margin of 4% and discount rate of 10% to take into account current global risks (leaving Future PE to industry levels). That would mean current price is undervalued ~40%.
• A safer valuation with a growth of 200% for the next 5y, with a profit margin of 4% and discount rate of 10% to take into account current global risks (leaving Future PE to industry levels) would indicate that current stock price is 30% overvalued

2025 Q3 Earnings summary

Financials & guidance

• Q3 revenue $10.1m (+580% y/y, +~60% q/q); OAS drove ~$10m of that.
• Gross profit $2.6m (26% margin). Adjusted EBITDA loss $8.8m; operating loss $15.5m.
• Cash: $433m at Sept 30, 2025; company says ~ $855m raised since June (pro forma cash ~$840m after Oct offering before Q4 uses).
• Backlog: $23.3m consolidated (>$40m including recent acquisitions).
• Updated guidance: FY2025 revenue target raised to at least $36m (Q4 >$15m); 2026 target at least $110m.
• Target gross margin ~50% long-term; management expects operating businesses EBITDA-positive in H2 2026.

Business & strategy

• Core+ strategy: move from standalone tech to a “system of systems” (air, ground, sensing, comms) via organic scaling + M&A.
• Ondas Capital launched — up to $150m to scale combat‑proven tech from Ukraine/allies into US/EU production; investor day planned in Dec.
• OAS (Ondas Autonomous Systems): scaling production, services and field support; focus on counter‑UAS (Iron Drone, Optimus) and recurring services over time.
• Ondas Networks: dot16 wireless progress — AAR Wireless Communications Committee selected dot16 for AAR frequencies (900, 450, 160 MHz); trials and early production deliveries planned (e.g., Northeast corridor ACSES units, HoT/EoT work with vendors).
• M&A: multiple strategic buys announced (Sentrycs, Apeiro Motion, Forum Defense, SPO, Zickel, Insight Intelligence sensors); 20+ targets in pipeline, 7 in advanced talks.
• Sentrycs (definitive agreement) adds Cyber‑over‑RF (CoRF) soft‑kill counter‑UAS; management says field proven with high gross margins (upper 70s %) and rapid growth/200+ deployments globally. Integration with Iron Drone to provide layered detect-to-defeat solution.

Operational notes

• OAS backlog and pipeline maturing; expecting strong Q4 orders and production ramp with U.S.-built systems available Q1 2026.
• Management: investing in leadership, ops, and U.S. supply chain; cash operating spend rose in Q3 but company expects leveraging as revenue scales.
• Revenue mix: near-term dominated by product/system sales (defense buys); commercial recurring DaaS/servitization expected to grow over time.

Q&A highlights

• 2026 guidance excludes further unannounced M&A (includes announced deals, including Sentrycs).
• Management sees potential for significant upside from M&A pipeline but did not quantify timing/conversion.
• Expect margins to improve in 2026; reiterated ~50% gross margin target as reasonable.
• Operating businesses expected to be EBITDA-positive by H2 2026; holding-company costs remain to be covered later.
• Counter‑UAS deployments can cost millions per site; recurring fees expected depending on configuration.

Bottom line Ondas signaled a step change: record Q3 revenue, a large capital raise, aggressive M&A and product integrations (notably Sentrycs) aimed at creating a multi‑domain defense/security platform. Guidance is ambitious (≥$110m in 2026) with management forecasting improving margins and EBITDA positivity at the operating‑company level in H2 2026; execution on integration, commercialization of dot16, and M&A realization are the main value drivers and risks.

About 2025 Q4 Guidance

Ondas released preliminary fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on March 9, 2026. The final results for Q4 and full-year 2025 are scheduled to be reported on March 25, 2026. The previous full earnings report was for Q3 2025, released on November 13, 2025.

Key Details from Preliminary Q4/Full Year 2025 Release (March 9, 2026):

• Preliminary Revenue (Q4 2025): $29.1–$30.1 million.
• Preliminary Revenue (Full Year 2025): $49.7–$50.7 million.
• Revenue Guidance (2026): Reiterated $170–$180 million, ahead of new acquisitions.
• Final Report Date: March 25, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Previous Quarter Results (Q3 2025):

• Release Date: November 13, 2025.
• Revenue: $10.1 million.
• EPS: -$0.03 to -$0.06 (mixed reports on exact EPS).

Key take aways before Q4 Earnings - Quarterly Comparison

Key takeways - Yearly Comparison

Notes:

• FY2025 column uses the company’s preliminary full‑year revenue range ($49.7–$50.7M) from the March 9, 2026 release; many full‑year P&L and balance‑sheet line items for FY2025 were not disclosed in that preliminary notice. Where available, LTM (to 2025‑09‑30) figures are shown in parentheses for context; final FY2025 results were expected on Mar 25, 2026.
• Key visible changes: large revenue growth driven by OAS and acquisitions, materially higher cash/equity from 2025 equity raises, substantial share dilution, and improved gross margin at LTM — while net losses and negative EBITDA remain in absolute terms through the LTM period.