Last Update 19 Feb 26

Fair value Decreased 1.58%

CBRE: Future Returns Will Reflect Resilient Exposure To Apartments And Single Family Rentals

The analyst price target for CBRE Group has been trimmed to about $182 from roughly $185, as analysts factor in slightly lower revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, along with a modestly lower future P/E. They are also weighing mixed recent research that includes both target cuts tied to broader commercial real estate concerns and incremental target increases from other firms.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research on CBRE Group reflects a mix of optimism around longer term growth drivers and caution around nearer term sector headwinds, which feeds directly into how analysts frame valuation, execution risk, and earnings power.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts lifting their targets into the low US$190s point to what they see as room for upside execution in the business model, even as they refine assumptions across real estate related names.
Some research ties higher targets to longer term views on certain real estate categories such as apartments, storage, and single family rentals, which are seen as relatively more attractive segments for future growth exposure.
Maintained positive ratings alongside target increases suggest that, for these analysts, recent sector volatility has not fundamentally changed their view of CBRE Group’s ability to deliver on its strategy over time.
The willingness to raise targets within a broader review of real estate stocks indicates confidence that current valuation still leaves room for potential upside if the company executes consistently.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts trimming their targets, including a reduction of about US$22 in one report, are baking in more conservative assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E levels.
Some research flags pressure across commercial real estate services stocks tied to concerns around an “AI scare trade,” which is adding an extra layer of risk perception around earnings durability.
The mix of target cuts following broader sector worries suggests that a portion of the market is more cautious on how quickly CBRE Group can translate its platform into higher earnings, especially if transaction activity or client demand remains uneven.
Lowered targets relative to prior levels highlight that, for these more cautious analysts, the risk and reward trade off has shifted, with valuation now needing to reflect sector wide uncertainties and potentially slower improvement in fundamentals.

What's in the News

From October 1, 2025 to December 31, 2025, CBRE Group repurchased 1,867,318 shares, representing 0.64% of shares, for US$293 million under its existing buyback program. (Key Developments)
Since the buyback was announced on November 22, 2021, CBRE Group has completed the repurchase of 43,753,374 shares, representing 14.13% of shares, for a total of US$4,196.51 million. (Key Developments)
Bitzero Holdings Inc. engaged CBRE as its real estate broker for an AI ready data center site in Kokemaki, Finland, focusing on hyperscale and AI focused tenants. (Key Developments)
CBRE's role with Bitzero is limited to advisory and brokerage services, helping market the fully owned Finland site to potential hyperscale customers and partners. (Key Developments)
Power for the Finland site marketed by CBRE is scheduled to go live in the first quarter of 2027, with early stage engineering work underway for the first 200MW of development. (Key Developments)

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: trimmed slightly to $181.92 from $184.83, reflecting a modest reset in overall assumptions.
Discount Rate: adjusted down slightly to 9.07% from 9.26%, indicating a small change in the required return used in the model.
Revenue Growth: revised to 9.41% from 9.82%, a modest reduction in expected top line expansion.
Net Profit Margin: held broadly steady at 4.67% compared with 4.67% previously, implying only a minimal tweak to profitability assumptions.
Future P/E: reduced to 26.78x from 28.23x, bringing the valuation multiple closer to the updated growth and risk inputs.

Strategic realignment, resilient business focus, and integration of acquisitions enhance growth, margins, and operational synergies, driving stable revenue despite market uncertainties.
Strong cash flow supports aggressive investments, M&A, and share repurchases, promising EPS growth and increased shareholder value amid favorable market conditions.
Economic and market uncertainties, including tariffs, interest rates, and leasing slowdowns, threaten CBRE's revenue growth and strategic initiatives.

Catalysts

About CBRE Group

Operates as a commercial real estate services and investment company in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

CBRE's strategic realignment of its Project Management and Building Operations & Experience segments has resulted in strong financial performance and is expected to drive future growth by enhancing operational synergies, including shared client access and opportunities for mergers and acquisitions. This is likely to positively impact both revenue and net margins.
The increased focus on resilient businesses, which now make up over 60% of CBRE's total SOP, is expected to provide stable net revenue growth, even amidst market uncertainties, likely improving net margins due to enhanced operating leverage and cost efficiencies.
The strong balance sheet and improved cash flow position allow CBRE to invest aggressively in M&A and principal investments, potentially driving higher future earnings and improved financial performance during economic downturns.
CBRE's successful integration of Turner & Townsend is projected to enhance the project management segment's growth and margin profile over time, providing increased SOP margins and contributing to earnings growth through operational synergies and efficiency gains.
Continued investments in high-demand sectors such as data centers and strategic geographic markets, alongside capital deployment in share repurchases and M&A, are expected to deliver long-term EPS growth and shareholder value, leveraging favorable market conditions and strategic positioning.

CBRE Group Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming CBRE Group's revenue will grow by 9.5% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 2.9% today to 4.5% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $2.3 billion (and earnings per share of $7.95) by about September 2028, up from $1.1 billion today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as $1.9 billion.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 26.2x on those 2028 earnings, down from 43.6x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Real Estate industry at 25.8x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 2.56% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.91%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

CBRE Group Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Tariff-related uncertainty could dampen the outlook and slow down CBRE's transactional business, potentially impacting revenue growth.
The market's exposure to interest rate volatility and the risk of recession may lead to delays or cancellations in capital raising and corporate project management, affecting net margins.
The slowdown in large leasing deals, particularly in industrial segments, could lead to lower-than-expected leasing revenues.
Potential currency headwinds, although currently reversing, may still affect the company's global earnings depending on future foreign exchange fluctuations.
Persistent global economic uncertainty could lead to reduced investor confidence and a cautious approach to M&A and capital deployment, affecting earnings and strategic growth.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $169.727 for CBRE Group based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $197.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $115.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $50.0 billion, earnings will come to $2.3 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 26.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.9%.
Given the current share price of $162.09, the analyst price target of $169.73 is 4.5% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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