Last Update 20 Dec 25

Fair value Increased 0.27%

CHD: Margin Resilience Will Drive Returns Amid Tough Consumer Backdrop

Analysts have modestly reduced their price target on Church & Dwight, trimming expectations by roughly $10 to $15 per share as they factor in a tougher consumer staples backdrop, softer topline growth, and ongoing competitive pressures despite resilient margins.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish analysts acknowledge the lower price targets but continue to highlight Church & Dwight's relative resilience within a challenging consumer staples environment, pointing to stable execution and defensible categories as key supports for the equity story.

At the same time, bearish analysts are increasingly focused on macro and sector headwinds that could weigh on near term growth, margin expansion, and valuation multiples, prompting more conservative modeling assumptions.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts maintain positive ratings despite reduced targets. This signals confidence that the recent reset better aligns valuation with still solid long term fundamentals.
They view Church & Dwight as relatively better positioned than many CPG peers, given its diversified portfolio and history of disciplined execution. This positioning could support premium multiples versus the group.
Resilient margins and cost discipline are seen as key buffers that can help sustain earnings growth even as topline trends moderate. This supports the case for earnings stability.
The updated targets are framed as a recalibration to sector wide growth and risk assumptions rather than company specific deterioration. This framing suggests potential upside if macro and category trends improve.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts emphasize a difficult backdrop for consumer staples broadly, with limited pricing power and intensifying private label competition constraining revenue growth and margin expansion.
They highlight growing macro risks across the CPG complex, including tariff uncertainty and shifting consumer preferences. These risks could pressure volume growth and justify lower valuation multiples.
Sector wide estimate cuts for topline and EPS reflect caution that near term execution may be challenged by softer category demand and promotional intensity.
With multiple structural headwinds facing the broader staples complex, bearish analysts argue that risk reward has normalized. In their view, this warrants more conservative price targets even for higher quality names like Church & Dwight.

What's in the News

Church & Dwight concluded its strategic review of its vitamin, minerals and supplement business and agreed to sell the VitaFusion and L’il Critters brands, related trademarks, licenses, and two Washington state facilities to Piping Rock Health Products, with closing expected before year end. The divested brands represent less than 5% of anticipated 2025 net sales and will result in a one time after tax charge of $40 million to $45 million in the fourth quarter of 2025 (company announcement).
The company raised its full year 2025 outlook and now expects approximately 1.5% net sales growth, up from a prior midpoint of 1%, while keeping organic net sales growth guidance at about 1% (corporate guidance).
For the fourth quarter of 2025, Church & Dwight guided to approximately 3.5% sales growth and about 1.5% organic sales growth, indicating modest acceleration versus the full year trend (corporate guidance).
Between July 1 and September 30, 2025, Church & Dwight repurchased over 3.5 million shares across two authorizations for a combined outlay of more than $330 million. This continued a long running capital return program that has retired over 21 million shares under buybacks launched in 2014 and 2021 (buyback updates).
Management reiterated that mergers and acquisitions remain the top priority for capital deployment, even as it opportunistically accelerates share repurchases, citing a strong balance sheet, upgraded credit profile, and robust cash flow as key enablers (earnings call commentary).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: Essentially unchanged, nudging up slightly from about $97.00 to roughly $97.26 per share.
Discount Rate: Flat, edging down marginally from approximately 6.96% to 6.96%, signaling no meaningful shift in perceived risk.
Revenue Growth: Reduced meaningfully, with long term revenue growth expectations moving from about 3.86% to roughly 3.03% annually.
Net Profit Margin: Increased modestly, with projected net margin rising from around 14.78% to approximately 15.14%.
Future P/E: Largely stable, with the forward valuation multiple moving slightly higher from about 26.0x to roughly 26.1x earnings.

E-commerce growth and strong consumer demand in health and wellness categories are boosting margins, supporting sustained revenue and earnings momentum.
Innovation, new product launches, and strategic acquisitions are driving higher market penetration and international diversification, strengthening future growth prospects.
Margin compression from input cost inflation, weak vitamin segment, sluggish category growth, and overdependence on legacy brands threaten long-term profitability and revenue growth.

Catalysts

About Church & Dwight

Develops, manufactures, and markets household, personal care, and specialty products.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The strong trajectory of e-commerce and online sales, with Church & Dwight's online channel now accounting for 23% of global sales and driving category growth (notably with Touchland's success on Amazon and other platforms), positions the company to benefit from higher-margin, direct-to-consumer sales and increased market reach-this is likely to support revenue growth and margin expansion in future years.
Secular increases in consumer focus on health, hygiene, and wellness-demonstrated by robust category and share growth in oral care (THERABREATH), acne solutions (HERO), and hand sanitizers (Touchland)-underscore potential for sustained volume growth and premium pricing, positively impacting both top-line revenues and net margins going forward.
Innovation and new product launches remain a major internal catalyst: roughly half of recent organic growth is attributed to innovations (e.g., BATISTE Light, HERO Mighty Patch Body, Touchland new fragrances), which tend to command higher prices and increase household penetration, providing momentum for above-peer revenue growth and margin improvement.
Bolt-on acquisitions in fast-growth segments (e.g., Touchland in hand sanitizers, HERO in acne care) continue to supplement organic growth, with newly acquired brands exhibiting significant runway for penetration and international rollout-supporting future revenue streams and potential for synergistic earnings growth.
International growth remains robust, with Church & Dwight's international segment delivering mid-single-digit organic growth and successfully launching core U.S. brands abroad (e.g., HERO in 50 countries within 12 months), increasing geographic diversification and mitigating regional volatility, enhancing longer-term revenue stability and earnings resiliency.

Church & Dwight Earnings and Revenue Growth

Church & Dwight Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Church & Dwight's revenue will grow by 3.9% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 8.7% today to 14.7% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $1.0 billion (and earnings per share of $4.24) by about September 2028, up from $525.2 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 29.0x on those 2028 earnings, down from 44.0x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Household Products industry at 21.6x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.57% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.78%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Church & Dwight Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The company is experiencing significant underperformance in its vitamin (gummy/multivitamin) segment, with consumption down approximately 25% YoY and ongoing uncertainty about how to right the business; potential divestiture or restructuring could result in revenue dilution and stranded costs, impacting overall revenue and net margins.
Ongoing and elevated input cost inflation and tariffs, particularly in international sourcing markets like China, Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam, are compressing gross margins, and current productivity initiatives have only partially offset these structural headwinds, threatening long-term earnings power if not mitigated.
Increased promotional activity and rising retailer consolidation are leading to greater trade spend pressures, especially in litter and laundry categories, threatening net price realization and risking erosion of net margins if the landscape becomes more competitive or if value brands accelerate.
Slower overall category growth in household and personal care, compounded by retailer destocking and more muted consumer confidence, means Church & Dwight's largest categories are growing below historical averages ("categories are growing slower than that this year"), putting long-term revenue growth targets at risk if secular stagnation persists.
Overreliance on a concentrated set of legacy brands (e.g., ARM & HAMMER, BATISTE, THERABREATH), with episodic performance issues (BATISTE down almost 7% in the quarter due to competitive pressure and supply chain issues), increases vulnerability to changing consumer preferences, commoditization, and innovation fatigue, ultimately threatening sustained revenue growth and diluted brand equity.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $100.053 for Church & Dwight based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $120.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $73.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $6.8 billion, earnings will come to $1.0 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 29.0x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.8%.
Given the current share price of $94.91, the analyst price target of $100.05 is 5.1% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Analysts Adjust Targets for Church and Dwight Amid Sector Headwinds and Updated 2025 Guidance