Last Update17 Oct 25Fair value Increased 1.60%
Artivion's analyst price target has been raised modestly from $44.54 to $45.26, as analysts point to ongoing strength in the company's core business, margin gains, and continued momentum in its Aortic stent graft segment.
Analyst Commentary
Recent analyst research on Artivion reflects a mix of optimism surrounding the company’s operational progress and a measured approach regarding its future outlook. The following highlights summarize prevailing themes in the latest analyst assessments:
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts are raising price targets, citing consistent strength in Artivion's core business and dependable revenue generation.
- Growth momentum in the Aortic stent graft segment is noted as a key driver supporting valuation upgrades.
- Margin expansion and improvements in adjusted EBITDA are seen as positive indicators of strong execution and operational efficiency.
- Positive clinical updates and constructive feedback from cardiac surgeons about On-X utilization suggest additional upside potential, particularly as new data is published in leading medical journals.
- Bears are shifting to a more neutral stance, despite price target increases. This signals caution regarding the current valuation relative to recent gains.
- The sustainability of above-average stock performance is a concern, as the shares have climbed significantly year to date.
- Future growth is partly contingent on successful product launches and broader adoption. These factors carry execution risk if clinical or commercial expectations are not met.
- While margin gains are positive, maintaining these improvements amid competitive and regulatory pressures remains an ongoing challenge.
What's in the News
- Positive 30-day data from the AMDS PERSEVERE trial demonstrated significant benefits in patients with visceral and renal malperfusion. The data showed that 83% of those with pre-operative visceral malperfusion did not experience major gastrointestinal events after AMDS implantation (Key Developments).
- The PERSEVERE clinical trial met its primary endpoints. Results indicated a 72% reduction in all-cause mortality and a 54% reduction in major adverse events at 30 days post-AMDS implantation compared to the standard hemiarch procedure (Key Developments).
- Artivion raised its 2025 earnings guidance, now expecting revenue growth in the range of 12% to 14% and reported revenues between $435 and $443 million. The company cited robust second quarter performance and a favorable growth outlook (Key Developments).
- The company executed two Real Estate Purchase and Sale Contracts on September 26, 2025, under materially similar terms with no known regulatory or legal obstacles to completion (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly, moving from $44.54 to $45.26.
- Discount Rate increased marginally from 7.66% to 7.66%.
- Revenue Growth projection edged down minimally, changing from 12.16% to 12.15%.
- Net Profit Margin improved moderately, increasing from 6.54% to 6.60%.
- Future P/E ratio is up slightly, rising from 84.79x to 85.36x.
Key Takeaways
- Adoption of innovative products and expansion into new markets are fueling global revenue growth and market share gains, especially in heart valve replacements.
- Operational efficiency, new regulatory approvals, and product launches are increasing profitability, diversifying earnings, and enhancing future financial flexibility.
- Artivion faces growth and margin risks from regulatory hurdles, market competition, leverage constraints, pricing pressures, and operational disruptions impacting product availability and financial flexibility.
Catalysts
About Artivion- Manufactures, processes, and distributes medical devices and implantable human tissues worldwide.
- Strong growth in constant currency revenue (14% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA (33% YoY), primarily driven by increasing adoption of innovative and clinically differentiated products like On-X valves and AMDS, positions Artivion to benefit from the rising need for heart valve replacements as the global population ages-supporting sustained revenue and earnings growth.
- Ongoing U.S. launch of AMDS, with positive physician feedback, rapid clinical adoption post-training, and a significant $150 million annual market opportunity, indicates accelerating market penetration; this should materially contribute to both top-line revenue growth and high-margin product mix, improving EBITDA margins long-term.
- Expansion of On-X valve usage-supported by new clinical data showing mortality benefits for younger patients and effective cross-selling from AMDS training sessions-is enabling Artivion to capture increased market share globally, driving double-digit revenue growth and providing upside to profitability through higher volumes and ASPs.
- Continued progress in obtaining regulatory approvals and launching products (e.g., BioGlue in China, Arcevo LSA pivotal trial in the U.S., and potential NEXUS approval via Endospan acquisition) is extending Artivion's geographic reach and product offerings, unlocking new growth regions and revenue streams while further diversifying earnings.
- Improvements in operational efficiency through leveraging existing sales infrastructure for new launches and maintaining strong pricing power, combined with significant deleveraging of the balance sheet, support expanding net margins, free cash flow, and financial flexibility for future growth investments.
Artivion Future Earnings and Revenue Growth
Assumptions
How have these above catalysts been quantified?- Analysts are assuming Artivion's revenue will grow by 12.2% annually over the next 3 years.
- Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -4.4% today to 6.5% in 3 years time.
- Analysts expect earnings to reach $37.4 million (and earnings per share of $0.78) by about September 2028, up from $-17.9 million today.
- In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 80.9x on those 2028 earnings, up from -114.2x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Medical Equipment industry at 28.6x.
- Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
- To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.75%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.
Artivion Future Earnings Per Share Growth
Risks
What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?- Artivion's robust revenue growth is currently driven by cross-selling between recent product launches (like AMDS) and existing legacy products (On-X valves), but management repeatedly acknowledges uncertainty regarding how much future top-line growth will be derived from continued new account wins versus current utilization rates. If innovation or pipeline launches underperform, aging flagship products and heavy reliance on limited niche markets could lead to revenue growth deceleration.
- While Artivion's product portfolio currently provides pricing power and margin stability, the long-term trend toward hospital and payer cost containment-especially as value-based purchasing increases-could impose pricing pressure or limited reimbursement, particularly as more large device manufacturers enter a consolidating cardiac/vascular device industry, affecting revenue and net margins over time.
- Artivion's clinical and pipeline expansion depends on successfully navigating increasingly complex regulatory processes, such as FDA PMA approvals and IDE clinical trials. The company's strong current pipeline expectations are vulnerable to regulatory delays, cost overruns, and extended timelines-any of which would delay revenue realization and increase R&D expense, impacting both revenue and net margins.
- Although recent actions have reduced net leverage, Artivion remains highly leveraged relative to earnings, with $215+ million in debt and a history of needing to issue equity to extinguish convertible notes. This constrains financial agility for further R&D investments, acquisition opportunities, or navigating revenue volatility, and can dilute future shareholder returns or pressure earnings.
- Increased frequency of operational disruptions, such as the 2024 cybersecurity incident and ongoing global supply chain volatility, pose ongoing risks for specialty tissue processing and product availability. These disruptions threaten timely fulfillment of backlog, cost structure predictability, and could undermine revenue consistency and free cash flow, especially as global supply chain and cybersecurity risks persist in the healthcare sector.
Valuation
How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?- The analysts have a consensus price target of $42.4 for Artivion based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $50.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $38.8.
- In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $571.4 million, earnings will come to $37.4 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 80.9x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.7%.
- Given the current share price of $43.32, the analyst price target of $42.4 is 2.2% lower. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
- We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.
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Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
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