Last Update 09 Feb 26

Fair value Decreased 2.42%

ASAN: Government Security Expansion Will Support Premium Future P/E Multiple

Analysts have trimmed their price target on Asana by about $0.40, pointing to slightly lower fair value and profit margin assumptions, even as they maintain a higher future P/E outlook.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts still see room for a relatively higher future P/E, suggesting they view Asana as capable of supporting a premium multiple if execution on growth and margins improves over time.
The modest $0.40 trim to the price target points to tweaks in assumptions rather than a major shift in the overall thesis, which some investors may read as confidence in the broader story.
Supporters of the stock often highlight Asana’s ability to tap into ongoing demand for work management tools, which they see as a foundation for future revenue expansion if the company executes well.
Some bullish analysts appear comfortable with near term profit pressure as long as it is paired with disciplined investment aimed at strengthening the product and customer base.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts are focusing on slightly lower fair value and profit margin assumptions, which feed into reduced price targets and a more cautious stance on how quickly Asana can scale efficiently.
The cut to the price target by around $5 in recent Street research highlights concerns that prior expectations may have been too optimistic relative to current execution and margin trends.
Cautious voices point out that a higher future P/E outlook can be hard to justify if profitability timelines extend or if revenue growth does not track earlier expectations.
Some bearish analysts see limited room for valuation upside if Asana does not show clearer progress on narrowing losses and improving operating leverage.

What’s in the News

Asana repurchased 2,183,000 shares, representing 0.92%, for $30.78 million between August 1, 2025 and October 31, 2025, completing a total buyback of 11,388,000 shares, or 4.94%, for $152.53 million under the program announced on June 20, 2024 (Key Developments).
The company issued earnings guidance for the fourth quarter, expecting revenues of $204.0 million to $206.0 million, which it describes as representing year over year growth of 8% to 9% (Key Developments).
For fiscal 2026, Asana guided to revenues of $789.0 million to $791.0 million, which it describes as representing year over year growth of 9% (Key Developments).
Asana announced Asana Gov, a FedRAMP in process platform aimed at government agencies and regulated industries, designed to centralize mission critical work while meeting federal security and compliance standards (Key Developments).
The Asana Gov offering is intended to help agencies connect goals to execution, manage cross department workflows in one workspace, and adjust to new mandates using real time dashboards and AI powered updates, with a target of operating in a FedRAMP Moderate environment (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: trimmed slightly, moving from 15.92 to 15.54, reflecting a modest reset in the modeled share valuation.
Discount Rate: inched higher from 8.68% to 8.72%, implying a small uptick in the required return used in the analysis.
Revenue Growth: left effectively unchanged at about 9.33%, indicating no material adjustment to top line growth assumptions based on this update.
Net Profit Margin: lowered from 12.75% to 12.24%, pointing to slightly more conservative expectations for future profitability.
Future P/E: raised modestly from 39.49x to 40.17x, suggesting analysts still factor in room for a premium multiple over time.

AI-driven workflow automation and product innovation are driving platform stickiness, increased customer retention, and higher customer value.
Global digital transformation trends and consolidation of legacy tools onto Asana are fueling strong international growth and expanding long-term recurring revenues.
Rising competition, evolving AI trends, and regulatory pressures threaten Asana's growth, profitability, and customer retention by increasing costs and eroding market differentiation.

Catalysts

About Asana

Operates a work management software platform for individuals, team leads, and executives in the United States and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Asana's integration of AI into structured workflow automation (AI Studio, smart workflows, and upcoming AI Teammates) is unlocking new, highly valued enterprise use cases that increase platform stickiness, boost customer expansion and drive higher ARPU, supporting accelerated mid
to long-term revenue growth.
Widespread digital transformation and hybrid/remote work trends are fueling sustained, global demand for advanced productivity platforms, with Asana benefiting from strong international expansion (notably in EMEA and Japan) and above-average growth in large enterprise accounts, positioning the company for TAM expansion and multiyear recurring revenues.
Enterprise customers are consolidating legacy tools onto Asana, leveraging the platform's security, compliance, and AI features; this drives large seat expansions, higher net margins, and improved retention, which will positively impact both revenue and earnings.
Product innovation (AI Studio Plus self-serve, Smart Workflow Gallery, new add-ons for compliance, permissions, time sheets, and budgeting) is systematically increasing customer retention and reducing churn, leading to higher net dollar retention rates and greater customer lifetime value.
Operational discipline and resource reallocations toward higher ROI/efficiency areas are materially expanding operating margins, resulting in strong free cash flow and a foundation for continued margin expansion and profitability.

Asana Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Asana's revenue will grow by 9.4% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts are not forecasting that Asana will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate Asana's profit margin will increase from -31.4% to the average US Software industry of 13.1% in 3 years.
If Asana's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $126.6 million (and earnings per share of $0.49) by about September 2028, up from $-231.8 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 43.0x on those 2028 earnings, up from -14.5x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Software industry at 36.6x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 3.14% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.64%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Asana Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Shifting buyer discovery and decision-making toward AI-driven search is accelerating top-of-funnel pressures, particularly in the SMB segment, which may hinder new customer acquisition, slow revenue growth, and increase customer acquisition costs over time.
Persistent downgrade pressure from upcoming large-volume enterprise renewals, notably in the tech vertical, suggests that net retention rates (NRR) could decline or revert to previous, lower levels, impacting recurring revenue and limiting near-term and long-term earnings growth.
Intensifying competition and ongoing market consolidation may enable larger, bundled platforms and channel partners (e.g., Microsoft, Atlassian) to erode Asana's customer base and pricing power, leading to increased customer churn, reduced average contract values, and margin compression.
The rapid emergence of commoditized features in project management and collaboration software, coupled with evolving generative AI adoption, threatens to fuel price-based competition and limit Asana's differentiation, pressuring both ARR growth and long-term profitability.
Ongoing regulatory changes (e.g., global data privacy and compliance demands) and necessary investments in compliance and AI infrastructure may raise operational costs, eat into net margins, and delay the company's path to sustainable, materially higher earnings.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $16.375 for Asana based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $22.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $10.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $966.9 million, earnings will come to $126.6 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 43.0x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.6%.
Given the current share price of $14.23, the analyst price target of $16.38 is 13.1% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Global AI Integration And Digital Transformation Will Secure Enduring Success