Last Update 18 Feb 26

Fair value Decreased 25%

GTM: Future Upside Will Depend On Buybacks And Execution Under Tighter Scrutiny

Analysts have trimmed their ZoomInfo Technologies price targets by several dollars across multiple firms. The updated fair value estimate has moved from about $12.35 to $9.29 as they factor in lower revenue growth assumptions, a higher discount rate, and more moderate future P/E expectations, partly offset by slightly higher projected profit margins.

Analyst Commentary

Across the Street, research updates cluster around lower price targets and one downgrade, with most commentary tied to revised expectations for growth, valuation multiples, and execution risk. Here is how the current debate is shaping up.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts point to slightly higher projected profit margins as a support for the updated fair value, suggesting that profitability could offset some of the pressure from lower growth assumptions.
Some see the reset in price targets, including the move from $14 to $12 cited in one report, as bringing expectations closer to current execution. They view this as a healthier starting point for long term holders.
The view that software valuations are generally low and that the sector is out of favor is seen by bullish analysts as a potential opportunity if company level execution holds steady.
A stable macro and IT spending backdrop mentioned in recent research is cited by more constructive voices as a reason to focus on company specific drivers such as sales efficiency and product uptake rather than broad demand shocks.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts are cutting price targets by between $1 and $6, reflecting concerns that prior revenue growth assumptions were too optimistic and that the stock’s earlier valuation did not fully account for this.
Several firms reference a higher discount rate and more moderate future P/E expectations. This lowers their fair value estimates and signals less willingness to pay high multiples for the current growth profile.
The downgrade at one firm highlights execution risk, with caution around ZoomInfo’s ability to convert its data and platform into consistent, high quality revenue growth under tighter scrutiny from investors.
With a broad group of banks trimming targets in the same week, some cautious analysts view the cluster of revisions as a sign that the Street is still recalibrating its growth and valuation framework for the name.

What’s in the News

The Board of Directors authorized an equity buyback plan in February 2026, providing a framework for ongoing share repurchases under ZoomInfo Technologies Inc. (NasdaqGS:ZI) (company announcement).
The company increased its existing equity buyback authorization by US$500 million in February 2026, bringing the total approved amount to US$1.6b (company announcement).
ZoomInfo announced a share repurchase program that allows the company to buy back up to US$1.0b of its common stock, signaling continued use of buybacks as a capital allocation tool (company announcement).
From October 1, 2025 to December 31, 2025, ZoomInfo repurchased 7,704,779 shares, or 2.46% of its shares, for US$79.06 million, and completed a total of 74,679,989 shares repurchased, or 21.61%, for US$797.88 million under the February 21, 2024 authorization (buyback update).
ZoomInfo issued earnings guidance for the first quarter of 2026 with expected revenue of US$306 million to US$309 million, and for full year 2026 with expected revenue of US$1.247b to US$1.267b (company guidance).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: trimmed from $12.35 to $9.29, a reduction of about 25% in the modelled estimate.
Discount Rate: raised from 9.60% to 10.32%, indicating a higher required return in the updated assumptions.
Revenue Growth: adjusted from 3.86% to 2.71%, reflecting more cautious top line expectations in the framework used.
Net Profit Margin: lifted from 15.24% to 17.04%, with the model now assuming a somewhat stronger profitability profile.
Future P/E: moved from 19.20x to 13.24x, pointing to a lower valuation multiple applied to projected earnings.

Accelerating AI adoption and product innovation are cementing ZoomInfo's platform as essential for enterprise sales teams, supporting durable revenue growth and expanding margins.
Strategic upmarket focus and integrated solutions are driving improved customer retention, higher-value contracts, and operating leverage, positioning the company for sustained profitability.
Heavy reliance on large clients, declining smaller customer base, commoditization risk, rising data regulation, and unproven international growth threaten long-term stability and profitability.

Catalysts

About ZoomInfo Technologies

Provides go-to-market intelligence and engagement platform for sales, marketing, operations, and recruiting professionals in the United States and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Accelerating adoption of AI and automation by enterprise sales and marketing teams is driving more organizations to standardize ZoomInfo as their core go-to-market data foundation, demonstrated by record upmarket deals, increased platform embedding, and growing average contract values-factors likely to support durable revenue growth and eventual margin expansion.
Enterprises are prioritizing digital transformation and high-quality, unified data as essential for enabling successful AI initiatives and workflow automation, pushing customers to increase reliance on ZoomInfo's integrated solutions (Data as a Service, Copilot, Go-To-Market Studio), which is strengthening customer retention rates and positioning the company for rising recurring revenues and improved net revenue retention.
Expansion into more sophisticated workflow and analytics tools (beyond simple contact data) is increasing cross-sell and upsell opportunities within existing accounts, as seen by customers doubling their annual spend and the rapid growth in the operations solution, which supports both higher average customer value and sustained top-line growth.
A strategic focus on upmarket customers-who have higher lifetime value, greater stickiness, and significantly higher margins compared to downmarket clients-combined with internal AI-driven efficiency gains (reductions in headcount and resource reallocation) is creating operating leverage and positioning the company for structurally higher net and operating margins over time.
As leading enterprises consolidate their go-to-market tech stacks and seek seamless integration of sales intelligence platforms with CRMs and marketing automation, ZoomInfo's product innovation and early-mover advantage in AI-powered sales tools (Copilot, Go-To-Market Studio) are cementing its indispensability, which underpins long-term growth and provides the foundation for premium pricing and resilience against commoditization, directly benefitting both revenue and margin outlooks.

ZoomInfo Technologies Earnings and Revenue Growth

ZoomInfo Technologies Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming ZoomInfo Technologies's revenue will grow by 2.8% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 7.3% today to 15.1% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $201.1 million (and earnings per share of $0.64) by about September 2028, up from $89.2 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $250.3 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $82 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 19.3x on those 2028 earnings, down from 37.1x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Interactive Media and Services industry at 16.9x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 9.25%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

ZoomInfo Technologies Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The rapid expansion upmarket and focus on large enterprise customers increases exposure to customer concentration risk, as significant revenue is now dependent on a smaller number of high-value clients; any loss or renegotiation of these contracts could lead to revenue volatility and earnings pressure.
Downmarket revenues are declining significantly (-11% YoY), and there is no clear indication of imminent stabilization, raising concerns about the company's ability to maintain a broad and diversified customer base, which could hamper long-term revenue growth and net margin expansion.
Ongoing investments in AI-powered products and workflow automation heighten the risk of commoditization, as more competitors and open-source alternatives emerge with similar features, potentially eroding ZoomInfo's differentiation, pricing power, and gross margins.
Heightened global privacy regulation (such as GDPR and CCPA) and increasing customer emphasis on first-party data management could curb the availability and utility of third-party business intelligence data, driving up compliance and data acquisition costs, and threatening future product competitiveness, retention, and net income.
International growth prospects remain unproven, with limited commentary or concrete evidence of meaningful traction outside North America; expansion could be hampered by stricter regional data laws, regulatory headwinds, and lack of brand recognition, all of which may materially constrain long-term top-line growth and profitability.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $11.653 for ZoomInfo Technologies based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $15.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $7.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $1.3 billion, earnings will come to $201.1 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 19.3x, assuming you use a discount rate of 9.3%.
Given the current share price of $10.38, the analyst price target of $11.65 is 10.9% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

GTM: AI Initiatives And Upmarket Gains Will Shape Fair Valuation Ahead