Last Update 09 Dec 25

HAIN: Future Upside Will Depend On Revenue Stabilization Amid Pricing Pressures

Analysts have trimmed Hain Celestial Group's average price target to approximately $1.50, down from a prior range centered around $2.00 to $2.50, citing recent revenue and EBITDA misses and ongoing competitive pressures that are expected to weigh on results for several more quarters.

Analyst Commentary

Street research following the fiscal Q4 report reflects a more cautious stance on Hain Celestial Group, with both optimistic and cautious perspectives coexisting as analysts recalibrate expectations for the next year.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts note that the Equal Weight and Neutral ratings suggest the stock is more a valuation reset than a broken story. Downside is viewed as increasingly limited after the target cuts to $1.50.
Updating models post earnings, some see room for upside if management can stabilize revenue trends and execute on innovation, especially as new products begin to cycle into shelves over the next year.
Marketing and innovation investments are viewed as potential catalysts for reaccelerating top line growth, which could support multiple expansion if early traction shows up within the anticipated timeframe.
The compressed valuation versus historical levels may already discount a difficult near term, leaving scope for re rating if EBITDA margins begin to normalize from current depressed levels.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts emphasize the "sizable misses" on revenue and EBITDA as evidence that the business model is under more structural pressure than previously assumed. This is seen as warranting the lower price targets.
Competition from both smaller, natural and organic focused entrants and larger brands with upgraded ingredients is seen as eroding Hain's differentiation, raising concern about the durability of its growth algorithm.
The expectation of at least three more quarters before revenue shows meaningful traction from innovation and marketing implies a prolonged period of weak execution and limited visibility, which weighs on earnings power and valuation.
With the earnings base under pressure and timing of a turnaround uncertain, some view risk to forward estimates as still skewed to the downside. This is seen as constraining near term upside for the shares despite the reduced targets.

What's in the News

Garden Veggie Snacks launches a limited edition Garden Veggie Snack Suit to promote its upgraded Garden Veggie Straws and Puffs made with avocado oil during football season, emphasizing playful, family friendly snacking and natural ingredients (company product announcement).
Hain Celestial reinvents the Garden Veggie Straws and Garden Veggie Puffs line, now made with avocado oil, adding a new sweet potato straw, updated cheddar recipes with real cheese, and modernized packaging debuting at Target, with a broader rollout planned to national retailers (company product announcement).
The company records significant non cash charges in fiscal Q4 2025, with intangibles and long lived asset impairment of approximately $24.9 million and goodwill impairment of about $227.4 million, indicating a sizable write down of brand and asset values (unaudited company results).
A share repurchase program update shows no shares bought back in the quarter ended June 30, 2025, with total repurchases to date at about 905,201 shares, or roughly 0.99% of shares outstanding, under the February 2022 authorization (company buyback disclosure).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: Unchanged at approximately $2.41 per share, indicating no shift in the base intrinsic value estimate.
Discount Rate: Held steady at 12.5%, reflecting an unchanged assessment of Hain Celestial's risk profile and required return.
Revenue Growth: Essentially unchanged at about 29.9% in the model, with only an immaterial numerical refinement in the updated assumptions.
Net Profit Margin: Risen slightly from roughly 6.29% to about 6.35%, signaling a modest improvement in long term profitability expectations.
Future P/E: Fallen marginally from about 3.22x to roughly 3.19x, implying a slightly lower valuation multiple on forward earnings in the updated framework.

Leadership changes and strategic review aim to boost operational efficiency, shareholder value, and financial health.
Focus on cost savings, digital enhancement, and e-commerce drives revenue growth and better net margins.
Leadership instability, competitive weaknesses, margin pressures, high debt, and strategic uncertainty could collectively impact Hain Celestial's revenue growth and profitability.

Catalysts

About Hain Celestial Group

Manufactures, markets, and sells organic and natural products in United States, United Kingdom, Europe, and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The leadership transition to Alison Lewis, who has a track record of driving superior in-market execution and disciplined revenue growth, is expected to enhance operational efficiency and support revenue and earnings improvement.
The strategic review of the company's portfolio with Goldman Sachs as the financial advisor aims to explore options that could enhance shareholder value and potentially lead to better financial health and improved earnings.
The focus on revenue growth management initiatives, including pricing actions to mitigate inflation impacts, is anticipated to improve net pricing and margins across the portfolio, enhancing gross and net margins.
The simplification of the business, including reducing overhead spending and consolidating the office footprint, is expected to generate over $25 million in cost savings by the second half of fiscal 2026, positively impacting net margins.
Enhancing digital capabilities and investing in e-commerce are expected to improve business execution and drive top-line growth, contributing to both revenue and earnings in the future.

Hain Celestial Group Earnings and Revenue Growth

Hain Celestial Group Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Hain Celestial Group's revenue will decrease by 1.9% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts are not forecasting that Hain Celestial Group will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate Hain Celestial Group's profit margin will increase from -16.2% to the average US Food industry of 6.2% in 3 years.
If Hain Celestial Group's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $94.7 million (and earnings per share of $1.05) by about September 2028, up from $-261.2 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 3.7x on those 2028 earnings, up from -0.6x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Food industry at 19.8x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.07% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 10.66%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Hain Celestial Group Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The recent leadership transition and ongoing search for a new CEO indicate potential instability in management, which could lead to strategic uncertainty and hinder decision-making, impacting earnings and revenue growth.
The company's underperformance in key categories such as snacks and delayed recovery in Earth's Best Formula suggests weaknesses in execution and competitiveness, which could negatively affect revenue and market share.
Hain Celestial's failure to keep pace with cost inflation and trade investment through pricing actions suggests ongoing margin pressures, which may result in reduced net margins and profitability.
High levels of debt and an amended credit agreement to maintain compliance with leverage ratios highlight financial strain, potentially limiting the company's ability to invest in growth and impacting earnings.
The strategic review of the company's portfolio may introduce uncertainty and risk if divestitures or changes in focus do not effectively address underlying operational challenges, potentially affecting long-term revenue generation.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $2.874 for Hain Celestial Group based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $5.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $1.5.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $1.5 billion, earnings will come to $94.7 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 3.7x, assuming you use a discount rate of 10.7%.
Given the current share price of $1.82, the analyst price target of $2.87 is 36.7% higher. Despite analysts expecting the underlying buisness to decline, they seem to believe it's more valuable than what the market thinks.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Alison Lewis Will Improve Operational Efficiency And Secure Cost Savings