BTDR: Expanding Power Capacity Will Drive Upside Amid Sector Supply Constraints

Analysts have raised their price target for Bitdeer Technologies Group by approximately $2.12 to $34.79, citing strong self-mining revenue growth, improved profit margins, and increased diversification of revenue streams as key drivers for the upward revision.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research updates reflect increasing confidence among analysts regarding Bitdeer Technologies Group's near- and medium-term prospects. While enthusiasm centers on revenue growth and operational expansion, there are also a few notes of caution regarding evolving risks and sector dynamics.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts highlight robust top-line growth, with self-mining bitcoin revenue surging by over 300% year over year and more than doubling sequentially in the latest quarter.
The company's ongoing expansion of power capacity and its focus on diversifying revenue streams through 2026 are viewed as long-term growth drivers supporting valuation upside.
Reallocation of capacity from declining General Hosting to higher margin self-mining operations has improved profit margins and positioned Bitdeer advantageously for future quarters.
Wider sector trends, such as increased demand for AI infrastructure and data center control, are likely to benefit companies with sizable power portfolios and existing colocation agreements. Bitdeer is named as a potential beneficiary of further reratings.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts express concern over the segment decline in General Hosting revenues, attributed to the expiration of certain contracts and reductions in operations by customers using older, less efficient rigs.
There is caution that reallocating freed-up capacity to self-mining, while improving near-term revenues, may increase operational risk if bitcoin prices or mining economics become less favorable.
Analysts note competitive pressures in the sector, suggesting that valuation multiples could moderate if Bitdeer's execution on power expansion or diversification falls short of expectations.
Ongoing scarcity of power, land, and critical supply components for new data center builds could present execution challenges for growth initiatives, potentially limiting upside for companies without established access to these resources.

What's in the News

Bitdeer Technologies Group filed a Follow-on Equity Offering of approximately $148.6 million, offering 10,661,140 Class A Ordinary Shares at $13.94 each in a registered direct offering (Key Developments).
The company reported a significant increase in total hash rate under management, reaching 55.5 EH/s in October 2025, up from 18.0 EH/s a year ago. Mining rigs under management also rose to 254,000 from 168,000. The company self-mined 511 Bitcoins, an almost threefold increase year over year (Key Developments).
Bitdeer launched its new SEALMINER A3 series Bitcoin mining machines. These feature air- and hydro-cooling models and offer notable improvements in power efficiency, hashrate, and environmental sustainability (Key Developments).
Monthly operating performance continues to improve, with 452 Bitcoins mined in September 2025, a 20.5% increase over August. This growth was mainly driven by energizing new SEALMINERs (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Consensus Analyst Price Target (Fair Value) has risen slightly to $34.79 from $32.68, reflecting a modest increase in projected upside for the stock.
Discount Rate has increased to 9.07% from 8.30%, indicating a higher risk premium being applied in updated models.
Revenue Growth projections have fallen moderately, with the expected growth rate now at 89.41% compared to the prior estimate of 93.08%.
Net Profit Margin has improved significantly, rising to 16.97% from 11.35%, highlighting stronger profitability expectations.
Future P/E has declined substantially to 20.90x from 36.90x, suggesting a decreased valuation multiple as a result of updated earnings outlooks.

Proprietary technology and vertical integration aim to reduce costs, drive revenue growth, and improve operational efficiency in the ASIC and Bitcoin mining markets.
Expanding self-mining capacity and commercialization of SEALMINER ASICs are expected to boost Bitcoin output and diversify revenue streams.
Bitdeer's revenue and margin challenges, paired with high R&D costs and capital expenditures, suggest financial pressures and potential volatility in earnings.

Catalysts

About Bitdeer Technologies Group

Operates as a technology company for blockchain and computing.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Bitdeer's development of proprietary ASIC technology is expected to create cost advantages and open opportunities in selling machines to penetrate the $4 billion to $5 billion annual ASIC market, which could drive significant revenue and margin improvements.
The acquisition and planned development of a 101-megawatt gas-fired power plant in Alberta aim to provide a low-cost, vertically integrated power source for Bitcoin mining and potential revenue from selling excess power, improving operational efficiency and lowering production costs, which should enhance net margins.
Bitdeer's strategic focus on vertical integration, including developing internal technologies and capabilities, aims to maximize long-term shareholder value by reducing operating costs and improving margins, thus positively impacting earnings.
The planned commercialization of SEALMINER ASICs, coupled with a high demand for energy-efficient mining machines, represents a diversification of revenue streams and is likely to enhance revenue growth as Bitdeer becomes a key player in the ASIC market.
The planned ramp-up to 40 exahash in self-mining capacity by Q4 2025, leveraging newly developed ASICs and expanded power capacity, is expected to significantly increase Bitcoin production, thereby driving revenue and potentially improving margins due to economies of scale.

Bitdeer Technologies Group Earnings and Revenue Growth

Bitdeer Technologies Group Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Bitdeer Technologies Group's revenue will grow by 71.6% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -89.8% today to 19.1% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $343.9 million (and earnings per share of $-0.23) by about September 2028, up from $-320.3 million today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as $-52.7 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 19.6x on those 2028 earnings, up from -8.1x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Software industry at 36.6x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.57%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Bitdeer Technologies Group Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Bitdeer's Q4 2024 revenue decreased significantly to $69 million from $114.8 million in Q4 2023, driven by reduced cloud hashrate and hosting revenue, potentially impacting future revenue growth.
The company reported a negative adjusted EBITDA of $3.8 million for Q4 2024, reflecting inefficiencies and increased R&D costs that could challenge future net margins.
Bitdeer experienced a significant IFRS net loss of $531.9 million due to noncash derivative losses, signaling potential volatility in future earnings due to financial instrument valuation changes.
High operating expenses, especially elevated R&D costs related to ASIC development and noncash amortization, could compress net margins if not matched by future revenue growth from ASIC sales or efficient operational execution.
The reliance on significant capital expenditures, such as the funding of a $90 million gas plant in Alberta, could strain liquidity if anticipated cash flows from new mining operations or ASIC sales do not materialize as expected, impacting earnings stability.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $21.873 for Bitdeer Technologies Group based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $33.6, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $17.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $1.8 billion, earnings will come to $343.9 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 19.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.6%.
Given the current share price of $13.26, the analyst price target of $21.87 is 39.4% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

How well do narratives help inform your perspective?

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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