Last Update22 Oct 25Fair value Increased 5.14%
Northrop Grumman's analyst price target was raised from approximately $616 to $647. Analysts cited increased confidence in the company's long-term defense program exposure and strong positioning within key Department of Defense budget priorities.
Analyst Commentary
Recent analyst reports reflect growing confidence in Northrop Grumman's outlook while also identifying a few areas for caution. Sentiment ahead of quarterly results highlights shifting perspectives on the stock's valuation, growth drivers, and sector positioning.
Bullish Takeaways- Several bullish analysts have increased their price targets, citing expectations of revenue acceleration from Northrop Grumman's exposure to key Department of Defense budget priorities and robust international defense spending growth.
- The company's involvement in major defense initiatives, including the Sentinel and B-21 programs, which are seeing significant funding increases in future budgets, is seen as aligning closely with long-term strategic priorities.
- Strong free cash flow is expected in the years after 2028 as the B-21 bomber transitions to a cash-generating phase and the Sentinel program approaches full production. This is anticipated to enhance the firm's long-term financial outlook.
- Recent results have demonstrated profitability gains across all business segments. This supports the narrative that Northrop Grumman is well-positioned to benefit from both domestic and international growth opportunities.
- Some bearish analysts caution that government funding cycles remain a source of uncertainty, with potential impacts on the defense sector's Q4 and fiscal year 2026 outlooks due to possible government shutdowns.
- There is nuanced sentiment regarding defense spending sustainability, as supply chain challenges and geopolitical pressures could affect execution and profit margins.
- Emerging competition is noted as a potential risk, with new entrants in the sector representing a possible headwind to valuation multiples over the longer term.
What's in the News
- The Pentagon is expected to announce the builder of the Navy's next-generation F/A-XX stealth fighter as soon as this week. Northrop Grumman is competing for the contract. (Reuters)
- Pentagon officials are urging missile suppliers, including Northrop Grumman, to significantly increase missile production rates amid concerns over potential future conflicts, particularly with China. (The Wall Street Journal)
- The U.S. Defense Secretary has called an urgent meeting of top military commanders, highlighting the prominence of major defense contractors like Northrop Grumman in current military planning. (The Washington Post)
- The company is planning to quadruple its chip output by 2030, targeting applications across a wide range of military platforms and systems. (Axios)
- Northrop Grumman, along with other Western defense firms, is navigating supply chain challenges as China restricts exports of critical minerals needed for advanced weapons production. (The Wall Street Journal)
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen from approximately $616 to $647, reflecting a modest increase in perceived fair value.
- Discount Rate has increased slightly from 8.12% to 8.13%, indicating a marginally higher risk adjustment in valuation models.
- Revenue Growth expectation has declined moderately from 5.47% to 5.31% annually.
- Net Profit Margin forecast has edged down from 9.34% to 9.32%.
- Future P/E ratio has increased from 23.7x to 24.6x, suggesting higher valuation relative to projected earnings.
Key Takeaways
- Elevated defense spending, robust international demand, and leadership in next-generation platforms are strengthening revenue growth and enhancing operating margins.
- Expansion in high-growth market segments and supportive government actions are improving program execution, cash flow, and long-term earnings stability.
- Heavy dependence on major defense contracts, shifting global priorities, and execution risks threaten sustained growth, margin stability, and future international positioning.
Catalysts
About Northrop Grumman- Operates as an aerospace and defense technology company in the United States, the Asia/Pacific, Europe, and internationally.
- Accelerating U.S. and allied defense spending, supported by substantial increases in procurement and RDT&E budgets (e.g., 22% increase in U.S. spending for FY26) and significant new funding for key Northrop Grumman programs (B-21, Sentinel, and E-2D), is expected to drive sustained revenue growth and provide multi-year order visibility.
- Global proliferation of advanced military threats and the strategic importance of missile defense and space-based systems are leading to robust international demand, with 18% year-over-year international sales growth and strong awards in markets such as Europe and the Middle East, which should further support both revenue expansion and higher-margin contracts.
- Northrop Grumman's leadership on next-generation platforms, including the B-21 Raider and Sentinel programs, is benefiting from both improved program execution and favorable customer incentives, positioning these programs to contribute meaningfully to operating margins and earnings over the coming years as production ramps occur.
- The ramp-up of advanced autonomous and integrated systems such as Beacon and IBCS, combined with ongoing investments in solid rocket motor capacity (targeting a near-doubling by 2029), positions the company to capitalize on high-growth, higher-margin market segments, thereby enhancing future operating margins and underlying cash flow.
- Supportive government actions to remove regulatory and contractual barriers are leading to faster program execution and improved incentives, which, coupled with targeted capital investments and a strong backlog, are expected to improve earnings stability, free cash flow, and long-term profitability.
Northrop Grumman Future Earnings and Revenue Growth
Assumptions
How have these above catalysts been quantified?- Analysts are assuming Northrop Grumman's revenue will grow by 5.5% annually over the next 3 years.
- Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 9.7% today to 9.3% in 3 years time.
- Analysts expect earnings to reach $4.4 billion (and earnings per share of $32.65) by about September 2028, up from $3.9 billion today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
- In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 23.2x on those 2028 earnings, up from 20.7x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Aerospace & Defense industry at 34.4x.
- Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 1.72% per year for the next 3 years.
- To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.11%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.
Northrop Grumman Future Earnings Per Share Growth
Risks
What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?- While current demand and backlog are strong, long-term reliance on sizable U.S. government contracts (particularly B-21 and Sentinel) exposes Northrop Grumman to significant programmatic and budgetary risks including potential delays, cancellations, or changes in political priorities that could reduce revenue visibility and create volatility in top-line growth.
- Growing partnerships with international allies are driving up overseas sales, but the trend toward European and other allied nations developing indigenous defense capabilities could erode Northrop Grumman's long-term international market share, eventually impacting revenue and limiting margin upside.
- The company's strategy increasingly relies on large, high-cost hardware systems, even as global defense budgets may gradually shift toward software, cyber, and attritable/autonomous platforms; if Northrop is outpaced by more agile competitors in these emerging domains, it could face slower growth and potential margin compression.
- Heavy ongoing capital investments in facilities, production capacity, and innovation expose the company to execution risks and create the potential for cost overruns, which-given fixed-price contract structures-could squeeze net margins and earnings if not perfectly managed or if awards/contracts do not materialize as expected.
- Persistent regulatory and political attention on defense spending, combined with changing tax treatment (e.g., R&D credits), ESG pressures, and the risk of future arms control or budget constraints, could dampen institutional investor interest, reduce valuation multiples, and put long-term pressure on earnings and cash flow.
Valuation
How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?- The analysts have a consensus price target of $603.316 for Northrop Grumman based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $690.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $510.0.
- In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $47.5 billion, earnings will come to $4.4 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 23.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.1%.
- Given the current share price of $571.63, the analyst price target of $603.32 is 5.3% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
- We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.
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Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
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