Last Update14 Oct 25Fair value Increased 1.01%
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals' analyst price targets have recently moved higher, with analysts citing stronger commercial performance of Amvuttra and encouraging data from pipeline assets as drivers behind the upward revisions. The cited targets have climbed by as much as $55 to $583 per share.
Analyst Commentary
Recent Street research highlights a predominantly optimistic outlook among analysts on Alnylam Pharmaceuticals. Numerous firms have raised their price targets and maintained positive ratings, citing impressive commercial execution and promising clinical data. The following key points summarize current analyst perspectives:
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts highlight the strong commercial performance of Amvuttra, which continues to exceed sales expectations and drive revenue growth across multiple indications, including transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy.
- Upward revisions to valuation models are driven by robust initial results from the ATTR-CM launch and the long-term potential of the siRNA platform to expand into additional therapeutic areas.
- Recent clinical trial data, particularly from the Phase 2 KARDIA-3 study for zilebesiran, is viewed as encouraging due to meaningful reductions in blood pressure. This supports confidence in the company’s pipeline and growth prospects.
- Strengthened financial position, following a successful convertible senior note offering, is seen as enabling further business development and supporting future commercial and research efforts.
- Bearish analysts note that while clinical data are positive, not all endpoints achieved statistical significance. This tempers immediate upside from certain pipeline assets.
- Valuation remains an ongoing debate, with some skepticism around whether current market expectations fully reflect long-term growth or potential competitive pressures.
- There is continued scrutiny of execution risk as Alnylam pursues broader indications and seeks to sustain commercial momentum beyond initial launches.
- Questions linger around the durability of revenue growth and how quickly market uptake can be scaled across new indications.
What's in the News
- JPMorgan raised its price target on Alnylam to $348 from $338, citing increased Amvuttra forecasts in transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy ahead of the Q2 report (JPMorgan analyst note).
- The first patient has been dosed in ZENITH, a global Phase 3 outcomes study evaluating zilebesiran for its potential to reduce major cardiovascular events in patients with uncontrolled hypertension.
- New analyses from the HELIOS-B Phase 3 study of AMVUTTRA reported significant reductions in gastrointestinal adverse events, as well as improved survival and cardiovascular outcomes for patients with ATTR-CM.
- Alnylam revised its full-year 2025 earnings guidance upward, now forecasting $2.65 to $2.8 billion in total net product revenues and $650 to $750 million from collaborations and royalties.
- Alnylam joined the Alliance for Genomic Discovery to accelerate drug target identification and therapy development by utilizing a large-scale clinical genomic database.
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly, increasing from $447.15 to $451.68 per share.
- Discount Rate has edged up from 6.78% to 6.87%, indicating a marginal adjustment in risk assessment.
- Revenue Growth projections have increased modestly from 42.50% to 43.00%.
- Net Profit Margin has remained essentially unchanged, holding at approximately 27.42%.
- Future P/E Ratio has increased fractionally from 38.18x to 38.26x.
Key Takeaways
- Growing market adoption and global expansion of core RNAi therapies, alongside efficient payer access, are driving sustained revenue growth and operational leverage.
- Advancing pipeline assets and leadership in rare disease innovation position the company to benefit from ongoing healthcare sector trends and precision medicine expansion.
- Heavy reliance on a single franchise, margin compression, and regulatory risks threaten revenue growth and profitability despite ongoing investments in pipeline expansion and commercialization.
Catalysts
About Alnylam Pharmaceuticals- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. discovers, develops, and commercializes therapeutics based on ribonucleic acid interference.
- The rapid and robust uptake of AMVUTTRA for ATTR-CM in its first full quarter post-approval-combined with near-universal first-line payer access and minimal patient out-of-pocket costs-indicates a much larger addressable market for Alnylam's RNAi therapies as diagnostics and disease awareness improve, supporting sustained double-digit revenue growth.
- International expansion for AMVUTTRA in major markets (Germany, Japan, Brazil, EU) is only just starting and is expected to contribute meaningful incremental revenue in the second half of the year and beyond, with global rollouts benefiting from favorable reimbursement dynamics for high-impact orphan drugs.
- Advancements in Alnylam's pipeline (e.g., fast-tracked nucresiran for ATTR-CM, mivelsiran in Alzheimer's, new programs in diabetes and bleeding disorders) demonstrate increasing R&D efficiency and accelerate time-to-market, potentially driving future step-function increases in both revenue and operational leverage as more assets advance or launch.
- The strong track record of rapid health system integration and scalable commercial execution, with SG&A and R&D investments offset by exceptional sales growth, points to the start of meaningful operational leverage-improving net margins as product revenues outpace fixed cost escalation.
- Broader long-term trends of increasing rare disease prevalence and expanding healthcare/pharma spend-amplified by Alnylam's leadership in RNAi technology-position the company to benefit disproportionately from continued innovation in precision medicine, supporting enduring earnings growth and potentially leading to upward re-rating of the company's stock.
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Future Earnings and Revenue Growth
Assumptions
How have these above catalysts been quantified?- Analysts are assuming Alnylam Pharmaceuticals's revenue will grow by 41.8% annually over the next 3 years.
- Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -13.0% today to 26.8% in 3 years time.
- Analysts expect earnings to reach $1.9 billion (and earnings per share of $13.46) by about September 2028, up from $-319.1 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $4.3 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $104.4 million.
- In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 37.8x on those 2028 earnings, up from -183.8x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Biotechs industry at 15.5x.
- Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 1.63% per year for the next 3 years.
- To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.78%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Future Earnings Per Share Growth
Risks
What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?- Ongoing net price reductions and increasing gross-to-net adjustments for AMVUTTRA, driven by factors such as Medicare Part D rebate obligations, higher 340B channel utilization, and potential payer pressures, may lead to lower realized revenues per prescription over time, weighing on overall revenue growth and compressing net margins.
- Sustained high levels of R&D and SG&A spending to support pipeline development and expand commercial operations-while necessary for future launches-could exceed top-line growth if new programs do not achieve commercial success, leading to prolonged pressure on net margins or delays in achieving sustained profitability.
- Heavy revenue reliance on the TTR franchise (particularly AMVUTTRA) exposes Alnylam to revenue concentration risk; setbacks in launch trajectory, negative trial outcomes, or competitive encroachment in TTR amyloidosis could disproportionately impact earnings and share price.
- Declining gross margins due to increased royalty obligations on AMVUTTRA sales-highlighted by a reduction from 84% to 79% year-over-year and expectations for further decreases as sales ramp-may limit near-term profit expansion even in the face of robust revenue growth.
- Long-term revenue forecasts assume continued broad payer reimbursement and minimal access restrictions; should regulatory or payer environments tighten in the future (including expanded price controls, cost containment, or increased prior authorizations/step-edits), revenue growth and margins could be materially constrained.
Valuation
How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?- The analysts have a consensus price target of $426.26 for Alnylam Pharmaceuticals based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $583.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $236.0.
- In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $7.0 billion, earnings will come to $1.9 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 37.8x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.8%.
- Given the current share price of $447.43, the analyst price target of $426.26 is 5.0% lower. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
- We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.
How well do narratives help inform your perspective?
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
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