Last Update18 Oct 25
Fair value Increased 0.70%

CrowdStrike Holdings' fair value estimate edged higher to $498.91 from $495.45. Analysts cite continued momentum in deal flow, expanding product opportunities, and a growing pipeline as supporting factors for the modest price target increase.

Analyst Commentary

Analyst sentiment toward CrowdStrike Holdings remains largely positive as the company enters a new fiscal period, with several price target increases and upgraded ratings reflecting confidence in its ongoing momentum. However, a minority of analysts continue to highlight certain challenges and potential risks that could influence valuation and growth prospects.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts observed robust deal flow and pipeline generation, supporting expectations for accelerating growth in net new annual recurring revenue in the upcoming quarters.
Upcoming product innovations, particularly in artificial intelligence, identity, and security consolidation, are viewed as major levers for future growth and cross-selling opportunities.
Recent channel and customer feedback emphasizes strong satisfaction and the competitive edge of CrowdStrike's integrated platform across multiple security domains.
Management’s raised ARR targets and ambitious long-term revenue goals signal confidence in execution and the strength of the company’s expanding market presence.

Bearish Takeaways

Some bearish analysts are cautious about the flow-through from net new ARR to actual fiscal year revenues, noting a gap between top-line beats and full-year revenue guidance increases.
Conservative forward guidance and ongoing near-term revenue dampening from last year's incident continue to create debate among a segment of the analyst community.
Feedback on new product categories, such as Identity and emerging AI features, is mixed, with some partners noting slower adoption in these areas compared to core offerings.
Overall risk/reward is seen as more balanced at current valuation levels according to more neutral or cautious analysts, given the high expectations already reflected in the share price.

What's in the News

KPMG is expanding its cybersecurity services by integrating CrowdStrike Falcon Next-Gen SIEM and adopting Falcon's Engagement Licensing Program. This move aims to modernize security operations and leverage AI-powered SOC capabilities (Client Announcement).
CrowdStrike has unveiled innovations in Falcon Next-Gen Identity Security, offering unified protection for every identity, including human, non-human, and AI agents. These updates feature phishing-resistant MFA and advanced privileged access controls (Product-Related Announcement).
CrowdStrike is partnering with NVIDIA to extend Falcon protection to AI agents built with NVIDIA NeMo tools. This collaboration enables secure, scalable deployment and governance of AI-driven security workflows (Client Announcement).
CrowdStrike and Salesforce have formed a strategic partnership to enhance protection for AI agents and applications. The Falcon Shield platform will be integrated into Salesforce Security Center to improve incident response and visibility for enterprise workflows (Client Announcement).
Wipro has launched CyberShield MDR, an AI-powered managed security service that utilizes CrowdStrike Falcon Next-Gen SIEM to simplify and strengthen enterprise security operations (Client Announcement).

Valuation Changes

The Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly to $498.91 from $495.45, reflecting a modest upward adjustment.
The Discount Rate has decreased slightly from 8.48% to 8.44%, indicating a marginally lower perceived risk.
The Revenue Growth forecast is essentially unchanged, remaining steady at approximately 21.9% year-over-year.
The Net Profit Margin projection edged down, moving from 6.24% to 6.23%.
The future P/E ratio increased marginally to 343.7x from 341.4x, reflecting higher valuation expectations.

Strategic innovations like Falcon Flex and AI tools are enhancing customer relationships and efficiency, leading to potential revenue growth and improved margins.
Strong cloud partnerships and investments in security products position CrowdStrike for significant market expansion and sustained demand.
Execution risks from reliance on emerging products and acquisitions might impact revenue growth if these products underperform.

Catalysts

About CrowdStrike Holdings

Provides cybersecurity solutions in the United States and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The introduction of Falcon Flex, a subscription model that accelerates module adoption and simplifies procurement, is increasing customer commitment and lengthening customer relationships, potentially leading to increased future revenue and improved net margins due to larger, bundled sales.
CrowdStrike's AI offerings, such as Charlotte, and their innovation in AI capabilities are driving efficiency and operational enhancements both internally and for customers, which could improve future earnings by lowering operational costs and increasing customer satisfaction.
The company's ongoing success with cloud and partner ecosystems, including surpassing $1 billion in AWS Marketplace sales, indicates strong growth potential in cloud-derived revenues and faster deal cycles, enhancing revenue streams and market penetration.
Investments in emerging products like Exposure Management, Cloud Security, and Identity Protection that replace legacy systems indicate potential for significant ARR growth, impacting future revenues positively.
The strategic focus on Next-Gen SIEM, cloud-native security, and large-scale partnerships, along with CrowdStrike's expansive data capabilities for AI development, positions the company for robust demand growth, which can drive revenue and contract value higher in future periods.

CrowdStrike Holdings Earnings and Revenue Growth

CrowdStrike Holdings Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming CrowdStrike Holdings's revenue will grow by 22.1% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -6.8% today to 8.7% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $691.1 million (and earnings per share of $2.54) by about September 2028, up from $-297.0 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 232.7x on those 2028 earnings, up from -357.9x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Software industry at 36.2x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 2.38% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.41%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

CrowdStrike Holdings Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

There is a risk that CrowdStrike's reported forward-looking statements may not materialize as expected due to uncertainties, which could negatively impact future revenue and earnings.
The financial results and projections include significant non-GAAP adjustments, which may mask potential volatility and impact perceptions of net margins and profitability.
Competitive pressures in the cloud security market and the need for rapid innovation may increase operational costs, potentially impacting operating margins and free cash flow.
The reliance on emerging products and recent acquisitions, such as Adaptive Shield, to drive growth could introduce execution risks that might affect revenue growth if these products do not perform as anticipated.
Any failure to successfully execute the Falcon Flex subscription model or to maintain high customer retention rates could negatively affect the company's ARR growth and long-term revenue projections.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $469.159 for CrowdStrike Holdings based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $610.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $330.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $7.9 billion, earnings will come to $691.1 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 232.7x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.4%.
Given the current share price of $423.51, the analyst price target of $469.16 is 9.7% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

How well do narratives help inform your perspective?

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.