Last Update20 Oct 25Fair value Increased 0.51%
The average analyst price target for VICI Properties has edged up from $36.73 to $36.91, as analysts cite updated financial models, expectations for steady revenue growth, improved profit margins, and the resilience of net lease REITs in upcoming quarters.
Analyst Commentary
Recent research updates reflect a generally optimistic view of VICI Properties, as a series of analysts have raised their price targets and reiterated positive ratings. This sentiment is underpinned by upgrades to financial models and continued confidence in the firm’s growth prospects and operational execution.
Bullish Takeaways- Analysts see steady baseline growth for VICI Properties, with updated models projecting consistent revenue and earnings increases over the coming quarters.
- The company’s strong tenant diversification, long-duration leases, and attractive dividend yields are cited as key factors supporting its stability and outlook, particularly within the triple net REIT segment.
- Several recent price target increases are tied to expectations that VICI’s growth rate could accelerate through 2026. This would benefit from the resilience of net lease structures and the safety these characteristics provide.
- Incorporating updated AFFO (Adjusted Funds From Operations) estimates, analysts note that the firm is positioned to deliver solid performance into 2027, helping to justify higher valuations.
- Some caution remains about the broader real estate investment trust environment, as enthusiasm for a full sector recovery by 2026 is not universal among analysts.
- Although specific property sectors such as Office, Industrial, Healthcare, and Net Lease are viewed more favorably, there is increased caution around sectors like Multifamily and Hotels, which could influence investor sentiment toward REITs generally.
- Analysts note that while baseline growth is expected, upside may be limited without incremental improvements in fundamentals or larger macroeconomic tailwinds.
What's in the News
- VICI Properties announced an agreement to enter into a new 25-year lease with an affiliate of Clairvest Group for the real property of MGM Northfield Park, following MGM Resorts International’s sale of the property operations. The lease will start with annual base rent of $53 million and include three 10-year renewal options (Key Developments).
- The new Northfield Park Lease will feature annual rent escalations of 2.0 percent, a minimum capital expenditure requirement, and terms closely mirroring VICI’s existing master lease with MGM. Upon closing, the MGM Master Lease will be amended and annual base rent will be reduced accordingly (Key Developments).
- VICI Properties’ Board of Directors declared a new quarterly cash dividend of $0.45 per share, reflecting a 4.0 percent increase over the previous rate. The annualized dividend now stands at $1.80 per share, payable on October 9, 2025, to shareholders of record as of September 18, 2025 (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly from $36.73 to $36.91.
- Discount Rate has increased modestly from 7.71 percent to 7.80 percent.
- Revenue Growth expectations have edged up from 3.38 percent to 3.57 percent.
- Net Profit Margin is marginally higher, moving from 64.16 percent to 64.43 percent.
- Future P/E ratio has decreased slightly, changing from 18.19x to 18.15x.
Key Takeaways
- Demographic and consumer trends favor VICI's diversified experiential assets, supporting stable occupancy, revenue growth, and reduced tenant risk.
- Inflation-protected leases, disciplined funding, and strategic acquisitions position VICI for resilient earnings, dividend growth, and long-term asset value expansion.
- Shifts to online gaming, tenant concentration, lending risks, funding constraints, and expansion into competitive non-gaming sectors all challenge sustainable revenue and earnings growth.
Catalysts
About VICI Properties- An S&P 500 experiential real estate investment trust that owns one of the largest portfolios of market-leading gaming, hospitality, wellness, entertainment and leisure destinations, including Caesars Palace Las Vegas, MGM Grand and the Venetian Resort Las Vegas, three of the most iconic entertainment facilities on the Las Vegas Strip.
- The aging U.S. population with rising discretionary income is driving steady demand for leisure and experiential activities, which supports robust, long-term occupancy and rent growth for VICI's diversified portfolio of gaming, hospitality, and experiential assets; this underpins predictable revenue streams and supports sustained growth in net operating income.
- Structural shifts in consumer spending toward experiences such as travel, sports, group events, and entertainment are expanding opportunities in VICI's experiential and non-gaming real estate segments, creating new revenue streams, lowering tenant concentration risk, and providing a long runway for top-line growth.
- High inflation and the appeal of reliable, inflation-linked cash flows make VICI's triple-net leases with contractual escalators highly attractive to investors seeking income and an inflation hedge, leading to resilient FFO and dividend growth potential even in a turbulent macro environment.
- The company's scale, access to $2.9 billion in liquidity, and disciplined internal funding position enable accretive acquisitions and partnerships without near-term dependence on capital markets; this supports earnings and AFFO per share growth while maintaining low G&A expenses and strong net margins.
- Ongoing tenant reinvestment in VICI-owned properties, catalyzed by favorable tax law changes (bonus depreciation), and continued capital deployment into high-demand experiential real estate (e.g., theme parks, sports facilities, convention hotels) should increase asset value and future rental income, driving long-term earnings and net asset value expansion.
VICI Properties Future Earnings and Revenue Growth
Assumptions
How have these above catalysts been quantified?- Analysts are assuming VICI Properties's revenue will grow by 3.4% annually over the next 3 years.
- Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 70.2% today to 64.2% in 3 years time.
- Analysts expect earnings to remain at the same level they are now, that being $2.8 billion (with an earnings per share of $2.9). However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $3.2 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $2.5 billion.
- In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 18.2x on those 2028 earnings, up from 12.8x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Specialized REITs industry at 30.5x.
- Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 1.16% per year for the next 3 years.
- To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.71%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.
VICI Properties Future Earnings Per Share Growth
Risks
What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?- The ongoing shift toward iGaming and online sports betting creates the risk of long-term erosion in the appeal and performance of VICI's physical casino real estate, potentially undermining demand, reducing tenant revenues, and threatening occupancy and lease renewal rates, which in turn could negatively impact core revenue growth.
- VICI's tenant base remains highly concentrated among a small number of major gaming operators (like Caesars and MGM), meaning financial distress, changing business models, or declining performance at any of these key tenants could result in rent payment defaults, lease renegotiations, or weakened rent escalations, directly endangering rental income and net operating margins.
- The company's strategy of increasing exposure to mezzanine lending, shorter-duration credit, and development loans introduces interest rate, refinancing, and project execution risks-if projects experience delays or defaults or the credit environment deteriorates, anticipated earnings and FFO per share growth may falter, limiting dividend sustainability.
- Although VICI maintains disciplined leverage, the company's ability to fund external growth through retained earnings rather than equity or debt issuance may be tested in an environment of limited acquisition opportunities and rising costs of capital, potentially restricting AFFO per share growth and margin improvements if market conditions turn adverse.
- While VICI is diversifying into non-gaming experiential assets (theme parks, youth sports, ski resorts), these sectors face significant competition from other forms of leisure and entertainment, rapid shifts in consumer behavior, and increasing competition from private equity and alternative capital providers-all of which could moderate long-term top-line growth and compress earnings if expected returns fail to materialize.
Valuation
How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?- The analysts have a consensus price target of $36.727 for VICI Properties based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $44.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $34.0.
- In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $4.3 billion, earnings will come to $2.8 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 18.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.7%.
- Given the current share price of $33.12, the analyst price target of $36.73 is 9.8% higher.
- We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.
How well do narratives help inform your perspective?
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Read more narratives
There are no other narratives for this company.
View all narratives