Last Update18 Oct 25Fair value Increased 0.30%
AutoZone’s analyst price target saw a modest increase, with new estimates rising by $14 to $4,570. Analysts highlight persistent industry share gains and resilient sales momentum, despite ongoing margin pressures.
Analyst Commentary
Analysts recently issued a range of new price targets and commentary on AutoZone, reflecting both confidence in the company’s continued execution and awareness of ongoing industry headwinds. Their perspectives highlight the factors influencing current valuations and expectations moving into the next fiscal year.
Bullish Takeaways- Many bullish analysts see strong ongoing market share gains, especially in the commercial and do-it-for-me (DIFM) segments. These are supported by robust same-store sales momentum.
- Despite some margin pressure, there is broad confidence in management's growth strategy, including an accelerated pace of new store openings as well as investments in operational efficiency and digital initiatives.
- AutoZone’s ability to pass through price increases with limited impact on demand is expected to support both sales and earnings growth, even in the face of inflationary pressures.
- Some major firms highlight an improving gross margin environment. They suggest that temporary impacts such as last-in, first-out (LIFO) accounting will reverse, which could set up a return to double-digit earnings per share growth in the coming year.
- Bearish analysts caution that recent quarters saw margin and earnings misses, largely attributed to non-cash LIFO charges and elevated SG&A expenses associated with rapid expansion.
- Near-term profitability is likely to remain pressured as store build-outs and supply chain investments ramp up. Management is working to balance growth with operating leverage.
- Some analysts warn that prolonged SG&A deleverage could weigh on overall valuation multiples if it is not offset by sustained sales acceleration or successful cost management.
What's in the News
- On October 9, 2025, AutoZone announced an additional $1,500 million increase to its equity buyback plan, raising the total authorization to $33,750 million (Key Developments).
- Between May 11, 2025 and August 31, 2025, the company repurchased 117,000 shares for $446.2 million. This completed the repurchase of 44,806,031 shares valued at over $31.6 billion under the ongoing buyback initiative (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly, from $4,556 to $4,570.
- Discount Rate decreased marginally, moving from 8.64% to 8.58%.
- Revenue Growth projections have increased modestly, from 7.57% to 7.62%.
- Net Profit Margin expectations declined slightly, from 13.53% to 13.50%.
- Future P/E Ratio has increased, rising from 27.48x to 29.37x.
Key Takeaways
- Expansion of Mega-Hub locations and international stores is expected to drive revenue growth and improve sales margins by enhancing inventory availability.
- Investments in advanced technology for distribution centers aim to improve supply chain efficiencies and net margins, while share buybacks enhance earnings per share.
- The company faces margin pressures from foreign exchange headwinds, inflation, tariffs, and rising expenses, impacting revenue and earnings unless offset by strong sales growth.
Catalysts
About AutoZone- AutoZone, Inc. retails and distributes automotive replacement parts and accessories in the United States, Mexico, and Brazil.
- AutoZone's focus on improving availability and speed of delivery in the Domestic Commercial business is expected to drive further sales growth, contributing significantly to revenue growth.
- The expansion of Mega-Hub locations, with an aim to open at least 19 more in the next two quarters, will enhance inventory availability and support both retail and Commercial growth, potentially improving sales and operating margins.
- International expansion, particularly in Mexico and Brazil, with a target of opening 100 new international stores in the fiscal year, is poised to increase revenue and profitability by tapping into underpenetrated markets.
- Investments in new distribution centers featuring advanced technology and automation in California and Virginia are expected to create supply chain efficiencies, which should help to improve net margins.
- AutoZone's consistent share buyback program, supported by strong free cash flow generation, is set to continue enhancing earnings per share (EPS) over time.
AutoZone Future Earnings and Revenue Growth
Assumptions
How have these above catalysts been quantified?- Analysts are assuming AutoZone's revenue will grow by 6.0% annually over the next 3 years.
- Analysts are assuming AutoZone's profit margins will remain the same at 13.6% over the next 3 years.
- Analysts expect earnings to reach $3.1 billion (and earnings per share of $198.33) by about September 2028, up from $2.6 billion today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
- In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 28.1x on those 2028 earnings, up from 28.0x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Specialty Retail industry at 18.7x.
- Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 1.04% per year for the next 3 years.
- To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.57%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.
AutoZone Future Earnings Per Share Growth
Risks
What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?- The impact of foreign exchange rates resulted in significant headwinds, reducing sales by $91 million and EBIT by $30 million, which could continue to negatively impact reported revenue and earnings.
- The variations in performance across different regions, particularly the Northeast and Rust Belt, due to severe weather conditions, show volatility in sales, which might affect consistent revenue streams.
- Persistent inflationary pressures expected to increase ticket prices by approximately 3% and result in lower transaction counts, indicating consumer caution about spending, potentially impacting overall revenue.
- 20% tariffs on SKUs from China could pose additional cost pressures; historically, maintaining margin post-tariffs has been challenging, leading to potential impacts on net margins if not offset efficiently.
- Continued investment in aggressive expansion and technology are leading to higher SG&A expenses, causing margin pressures and limiting earnings growth unless sales growth compensates for these costs.
Valuation
How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?- The analysts have a consensus price target of $4202.409 for AutoZone based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $4900.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $2900.0.
- In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $22.5 billion, earnings will come to $3.1 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 28.1x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.6%.
- Given the current share price of $4291.12, the analyst price target of $4202.41 is 2.1% lower. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
- We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.
How well do narratives help inform your perspective?
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.