Last Update 07 Dec 25
Fair value Increased 0.69%YOU Robust Q4 Guidance And Airport Expansion Will Drive Continued Momentum
Our fair value estimate for Clear Secure has inched up to approximately $38.38 per share from about $38.11, as analysts raise price targets into the high $30s and low $40s on the back of stronger than expected Q3 results, robust Q4 guidance, and sustained member driven bookings and revenue growth.
Analyst Commentary
Analyst reactions to the latest results skew constructive, with price target revisions into the high 30s and low 40s reflecting growing confidence in Clear Secure's ability to sustain member driven growth while navigating macro and regulatory uncertainties.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts highlight that bookings and revenue exceeded prior guidance, reinforcing the view that member growth, product enhancements, and pricing power can support a premium multiple.
- Upward price target revisions into the upper 30s and low 40s are framed as a response to stronger than expected Q3 execution and robust Q4 guidance, suggesting upside to prior growth and margin assumptions.
- Management's discipline around resource allocation is viewed favorably, with bulls arguing that controlled investment should translate into improving operating leverage and higher free cash flow over time.
- Progress across the airport business and recent initiatives is seen as evidence that Clear Secure can deepen monetization in its core travel vertical while maintaining solid unit economics.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts maintain more cautious ratings despite raising targets, signaling concerns that the stock already discounts a significant portion of the recent outperformance.
- There is ongoing sensitivity around potential disruptions to travel volumes and member acquisition from policy or government related events, which could pressure growth if conditions worsen.
- Some remain wary that growth is still concentrated in the airport channel, creating execution risk if expansion into adjacent use cases or geographies proves slower than expected.
- Valuation is flagged as a constraint for more skeptical investors, who question how long Clear Secure can sustain current growth trends needed to justify multiples at or above the revised targets.
What's in the News
- Clear expanded CLEAR+ enrollment to eligible travelers from 40 additional countries across Europe, Asia, and the Americas, giving international visitors access to its 150 plus lanes at 60 U.S. airports and further scaling its 33 million member identity platform (Business Expansions).
- The company reaffirmed a strong outlook for fourth quarter 2025, guiding to revenue of $234 million to $237 million and total bookings of $265 million to $270 million, implying mid teens year over year growth and accelerating bookings momentum (Corporate Guidance).
- CLEAR launched its identity verification technology at John Wayne Airport in Orange County, California, marking its 60th CLEAR plus airport and adding an estimated $1.7 million in annual local economic impact along with 25 new jobs (Client Announcements).
- A new partnership with Wellstar Health System showcased CLEAR1 powered digital check in in U.S. hospitals and clinics, freeing up more than 1,500 staff hours in six months and targeting $2 million in savings for every 25,000 verified patients (Client Announcements).
- CLEAR deepened its B2B footprint through new integrations with Docusign and Fidelity National Financial, embedding biometric identity verification into agreement workflows and real estate transactions to combat rising digital fraud (Client Announcements).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate increased slightly to approximately $38.38 per share from about $38.11, reflecting modest upside from stronger growth assumptions.
- Discount Rate edged up to roughly 8.53 percent from about 8.46 percent, indicating a marginally higher required return in the valuation framework.
- Revenue Growth rose meaningfully to an implied 11.74 percent from about 9.80 percent, incorporating stronger expectations for top line expansion.
- Net Profit Margin decreased modestly to an implied 13.59 percent from about 14.32 percent, suggesting slightly more conservative profitability assumptions.
- Future P/E ticked up marginally to around 29.9 times from roughly 29.6 times, signaling a nearly unchanged but still elevated valuation multiple on forward earnings.
Key Takeaways
- Clear's NextGen Identity platform and automation partnerships enhance efficiency and market reach, leading to potential revenue growth and cost-saving benefits.
- Expansion into non-airport locations and pricing adjustments aim to boost revenue through wider market capture and improved member retention.
- New leadership, pricing strategies, and credit card partnership challenges present risks to operational stability, revenue, and member growth amid macroeconomic uncertainties.
Catalysts
About Clear Secure- Operates a secure identity platform under the CLEAR brand name primarily in the United States.
- CLEAR's rollout of the NextGen Identity platform and EnVe's is expected to enhance operational efficiencies and member experience, potentially leading to improved revenue growth through faster processing times and an increase in membership due to a seamless experience.
- The company's public-private partnership initiatives for deploying end-to-end automated lanes in airports can significantly expand market reach without incurring extra government costs, which should support higher revenues and potentially wider net margins due to the cost-saving advantages of automation.
- CLEAR's expansion efforts via TSA PreCheck enrollments and other initiatives at non-airport locations like retail sites could lead to increased revenues by meeting consumers in convenient locations and capturing a broader market segment.
- CLEAR plans to adjust pricing strategies by monetizing previously free tiers and improving value propositions, which may drive higher average revenue per user (ARPU) and enhance net member retention, thereby positively influencing overall earnings and cash flow.
- The continued emphasis on biometric security solutions and partnerships with enterprises for identity verification could lead to new revenue streams through CLEAR1, by addressing broader industry challenges in fraud prevention and securing workforce access, thereby supporting long-term earnings growth.
Clear Secure Future Earnings and Revenue Growth
Assumptions
How have these above catalysts been quantified?- Analysts are assuming Clear Secure's revenue will grow by 9.7% annually over the next 3 years.
- Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 21.2% today to 13.6% in 3 years time.
- Analysts expect earnings to reach $149.9 million (and earnings per share of $1.68) by about September 2028, down from $176.9 million today.
- In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 39.9x on those 2028 earnings, up from 19.9x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Software industry at 36.2x.
- Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 1.04% per year for the next 3 years.
- To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.46%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.
Clear Secure Future Earnings Per Share Growth
Risks
What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?- The transition to new leadership with the appointment of a new CFO and President introduces execution risk, which could impact operational stability and financial performance. This may affect net margins and earnings.
- The uneven distribution of membership renewals and seasonality could lead to volatility in quarterly revenue and earnings, especially given the impact on net adds projections for Q1 and Q3 compared to Q2 and Q4.
- Potential challenges in renegotiating favorable terms with credit card partners, like Amex, could depress future bookings and EBITDA if partnership terms remain economically unfavorable. This would impact revenue and operating margins.
- Increasing reliance on pricing strategies, such as raising prices for previously free tiers, might negatively affect member acquisition and retention if not matched by enhanced perceived value, impacting revenue and net member growth.
- Broader macroeconomic factors or changes in travel demand linked to external economic environments may impact growth projections and therefore affect top-line revenue and net earnings.
Valuation
How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?- The analysts have a consensus price target of $34.0 for Clear Secure based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $45.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $25.0.
- In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $1.1 billion, earnings will come to $149.9 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 39.9x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.5%.
- Given the current share price of $36.67, the analyst price target of $34.0 is 7.9% lower. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
- We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.
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Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
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