Last Update 09 Dec 25

RELY: Lending Expansion And Profitability Will Drive Bullish Re-Rating In 2025

Analysts have modestly reduced their price target on Remitly Global to approximately $23 per share from prior levels. They cite lingering uncertainty around management’s tempered near term growth commentary, the economics and risk profile of new lending products, and ongoing immigration enforcement headlines despite the company’s strong secular growth positioning in FinTech.

Analyst Commentary

Street research indicates that the recent price target reset is driven less by a loss of confidence in Remitly Global's long term opportunity and more by a recalibration of expectations around execution pace and risk. Analysts are weighing the company’s strong track record of profitable scaling against emerging questions on growth durability and balance sheet exposure.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts continue to view Remitly as one of the most compelling secular growth stories in FinTech. They argue that the company’s digital remittance platform is structurally gaining share from legacy providers, which supports a premium valuation multiple despite the target cut.
The company’s history of scaling faster and more profitably than initially expected is seen as evidence of disciplined execution. This reinforces confidence that management can navigate near term volatility while still compounding revenue and earnings over the medium term.
Over the long term, the introduction of lending products is viewed as an opportunity to deepen customer relationships, increase wallet share, and expand the revenue base beyond transactions. This could justify multiple expansion if unit economics prove attractive.
Bullish analysts note that the current share price already reflects a degree of macro and regulatory risk. They suggest that successful delivery against reiterated guidance could drive upside as sentiment normalizes.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts are concerned that management’s insistence that Q3 guidance is accurate and not a beat and raise setup signals a plateauing of near term upside. This could limit the likelihood of positive estimate revisions that typically support higher price targets.
Indications that current 2026 revenue forecasts may be too optimistic raise the risk of downward revisions to long term growth expectations, which would pressure valuation for a stock still priced as a high growth FinTech leader.
The new lending initiatives introduce incremental uncertainty around unit economics, funding strategy, and credit exposure. This prompts caution that missteps could weigh on profitability and constrain capital allocation flexibility.
Persistent news flow around immigration enforcement and its potential downstream effects on remittance volumes is seen as an overhang. Bearish analysts warn that regulatory or enforcement shocks could disrupt growth trajectories and inject additional volatility into the shares.

What's in the News

Raised full year 2025 guidance, now expecting total revenue of $1.619 billion to $1.621 billion, up about 28% year over year, with GAAP net income projected to be positive for the year (company guidance).
Issued new guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025, projecting total revenue of $426 million to $428 million, representing 21% to 22% year over year growth, and positive GAAP net income for the quarter (company guidance).
Completed a buyback tranche between July 1 and September 30, 2025, repurchasing 613,560 shares (roughly 0.3% of shares) for $11.88 million under the August 6, 2025 authorization (company disclosure).
Scheduled an Analyst and Investor Day, indicating ongoing engagement with the market on strategy, growth outlook, and financial targets (company event).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: Unchanged at approximately $21.50 per share, indicating no revision to the intrinsic value estimate despite updated assumptions.
Discount Rate: Risen slightly from about 7.33% to 7.33%, reflecting a marginal increase in perceived risk or required return.
Revenue Growth: Stable at roughly 17.56%, suggesting no change to long term topline growth expectations.
Net Profit Margin: Essentially unchanged, edging fractionally lower from about 6.46% to 6.46%, implying a steady outlook for profitability.
Future P/E: Increased very slightly from roughly 38.67x to 38.67x, indicating a minimally higher valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.

Expansion into digital memberships, wallets, and stablecoins boosts global reach, revenue diversity, and customer loyalty amid rising cross-border and digital financial activity.
AI integration and industry trends toward formalization and regulation lower costs, improve margins, and accelerate Remitly's shift from cash to digital leadership.
Heightened competition, regulatory risks, expanding into new markets, disruptive fintech innovations, and persistent fraud threats could erode Remitly's growth, margins, and long-term profitability.

Catalysts

About Remitly Global

Engages in the provision of digital financial services in the United States, Canada, and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Significant expansion of the addressable market through Remitly Business and the Remitly One membership platform (including Wallet and Flex) directly taps into the ongoing global migration and the rise of cross-border economic activity, likely supporting sustained, above-market revenue growth and increasing ARPU over the long term.
The strategic launch of stablecoin functionality and multicurrency wallets positions Remitly to capitalize on the accelerating adoption of digital financial services and rising global smartphone penetration, which should drive higher customer acquisition, improve retention, and diversify revenue streams.
Agentic AI capabilities embedded in customer acquisition channels (e.g., WhatsApp) and support functions facilitate migration from offline to online remittances, unlock operational efficiencies, reduce cost to serve, and should widen net margins as digital adoption in emerging markets accelerates.
Adoption of AI-powered risk models and fraud prevention alongside increased automation across support and product onboarding lowers transaction loss rates and operational expenses, contributing to improved net margins and supporting long-term earnings growth.
Upcoming regulatory tailwinds (e.g., remittance taxes targeting cash-based flows) and formalization of the remittance sector are expected to accelerate the shift from cash to digital platforms, strengthening Remitly's market share and driving transaction volumes, with a positive impact on top-line revenue and scale-driven profitability.

Remitly Global Earnings and Revenue Growth

Remitly Global Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Remitly Global's revenue will grow by 20.4% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 1.0% today to 5.1% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $130.1 million (and earnings per share of $0.42) by about September 2028, up from $14.1 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 63.3x on those 2028 earnings, down from 284.8x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Diversified Financial industry at 16.4x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 4.11% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.47%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Remitly Global Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Intensifying competition from both established remittance providers and emerging fintechs may drive long-term fee compression and increase customer acquisition costs, which could pressure Remitly's revenue growth, net margins, and ultimately overall profitability, especially as they expand aggressively into business and new market segments.
The company's increasing reliance on stablecoins and digital wallets introduces significant regulatory and operational risks; future shifts in KYC/AML requirements or adverse regulations regarding stablecoins and cross-border money movement could increase compliance costs and operational friction, negatively impacting earnings and margin stability.
Rapid expansion into new customer segments and geographies-such as SMBs, freelancers, and new markets-may encounter challenges related to deeply entrenched local competitors, varying regulatory environments, or ineffective market penetration, potentially leading to higher than expected marketing spend, slower revenue growth, and reduced scale efficiency.
The proliferation of blockchain-based and decentralized finance (DeFi) solutions for cross-border payments could bypass traditional remittance channels, commoditizing Remitly's core offerings and threatening long-term revenue streams if these alternatives achieve significant global adoption.
Cybersecurity and fraud remain persistent industry threats; despite investments in AI-driven fraud detection, recent sophisticated fraud incidents resulted in nonrecurring financial losses, and escalation of such attacks could increase transaction losses and insurance costs, while eroding consumer trust, harming both revenue and net margins over the long term.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $28.6 for Remitly Global based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $32.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $25.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $2.6 billion, earnings will come to $130.1 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 63.3x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.5%.
Given the current share price of $19.45, the analyst price target of $28.6 is 32.0% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Secular FinTech Growth Trends Will Drive Expanding Remittance And Wallet Demand