Last Update 05 Feb 26

Fair value Increased 11%

TTMI: Data Center Capacity And Radar Contracts Will Support Margins Into 2026

Analysts have lifted their price targets on TTM Technologies, supporting an increase in our fair value estimate from $92.75 to $103.25. They cite stronger expectations for revenue growth, higher profit margins, and a lower future P/E assumption.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research on TTM Technologies has focused on how future growth in key end markets and capacity additions could support higher earnings power, which in turn feeds into higher price targets and revised fair value estimates.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts highlight Data Center Computing as a primary growth engine, pointing to ongoing momentum that they see as central to the company’s longer term revenue opportunity.
Capacity additions at the most advanced PCB factories in China are viewed as important for scaling volumes, which, if executed well, could support margins and justify higher valuation multiples over time.
Management commentary around weekly yield reports from the Penang facility is seen as encouraging for manufacturing execution, giving bullish analysts more confidence in the company’s ability to support complex customer programs.
Some bullish analysts interpret the cluster of price target increases as a sign that prior assumptions for earnings power and P/E may have been too conservative relative to the company’s current growth plans.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts focus on execution risk around new capacity in China, where any delays or yield issues could pressure profitability and challenge the higher valuation assumptions implied by recent price targets.
There is caution that strong Data Center Computing expectations for 2026 are concentrated in a single growth driver, which could leave the story vulnerable if customer spending or product ramps do not track current plans.
Some bearish analysts question whether the higher targets fully account for potential cost inflation or utilization risk as new facilities, including Penang, move through their ramp and optimization phases.
Concerns also center on the possibility that a lower future P/E assumption used by some models may still prove optimistic if earnings delivery falls short of the more confident Street outlook.

What's in the News

TTM issued earnings guidance for the first quarter of 2026, with expected net sales in a range of US$770 million to US$810 million. This provides investors with a reference point for near term revenue expectations (Corporate guidance).
For full year 2026, TTM guided to net sales growth in a range of 15% to 20%. This outlines management's current top line planning assumptions for the year (Corporate guidance).
TTM and Raytheon entered a multi year agreement valued at up to US$200 million over three years to supply radio frequency assemblies, electronic hardware, and printed circuit boards for the Lower Tier Air and Missile Defense Sensor program. The agreement extends TTM's role in LTAMDS and GhostEye radar production (Client announcement).
TTM was removed from the S&P 600 Information Technology index and added to the S&P 400 Information Technology index. This change signals a reclassification within the S&P index family that can affect which funds hold the stock (Index changes).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: Raised from US$92.75 to US$103.25, a move of about US$10.50 per share.
Discount Rate: Trimmed slightly from 8.69% to 8.60%, reflecting a modest adjustment to the required return used in the model.
Revenue Growth: Assumed long term growth rate increased from 10.78% to 13.73%, indicating higher modeled top line expectations.
Net Profit Margin: Margin assumption moved from 10.45% to 11.95%, pointing to a higher modeled level of earnings efficiency on future revenue.
Future P/E: Target P/E multiple reduced from 32.23x to 28.94x, implying a lower valuation multiple applied to projected earnings even as the fair value estimate rises.

Demand for advanced PCBs from AI, cloud, and defense markets, plus domestic sourcing trends, strengthens TTM's growth, customer ties, and revenue stability.
Expansion into engineered solutions, automation, and disciplined operations enhances pricing power, margins, and cash flow resilience.
High operating costs, persistent customer concentration, geopolitical exposure, and capital-intensive expansions create significant margin, revenue, and execution risks for future profitability.

Catalysts

About TTM Technologies

Manufactures and sells mission systems, radio frequency (RF) components and RF microwave/microelectronic assemblies, and printed circuit boards (PCB) in the United States, Taiwan, and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Large-scale data center buildouts announced by tech giants (e.g., Google, CoreWeave, Meta) and TTM's new Wisconsin facility position the company to capture outsized demand for advanced PCBs and interconnects required for AI and cloud infrastructure, directly supporting revenue growth and long-term customer relationships.
Sustained increases in U.S. and NATO defense spending plans, alongside TTM's deep strategic alignment and $1.46 billion A&D backlog, provide long-term visibility and stability for high-margin revenue streams, improving predictability of forward earnings and supporting ongoing margin expansion.
Ongoing expansion into higher-value engineered solutions and advanced manufacturing capabilities-particularly through new capacity in Penang, Syracuse, and product mix shifts-increases pricing power and drives gross margin improvements over time, enhancing net margin profile.
Growing industry-wide emphasis on supply chain resiliency and secure domestic sourcing is likely to shift PCB market share toward North American providers like TTM, potentially leading to persistent outperformance in revenue and free cash flow as customers prioritize domestic production.
TTM's operational footprint rationalization, including automation in new U.S. and Malaysian locations, and disciplined strategic focus, positions the company to both manage costs efficiently and respond rapidly to demand surges, underpinning robust future earnings and cash flow generation.

TTM Technologies Earnings and Revenue Growth

TTM Technologies Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming TTM Technologies's revenue will grow by 6.4% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 3.5% today to 7.9% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $251.1 million (and earnings per share of $1.84) by about September 2028, up from $93.2 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 31.1x on those 2028 earnings, down from 52.8x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Electronic industry at 23.9x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 1.32% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.73%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

TTM Technologies Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The company's Penang facility in Malaysia is experiencing slower-than-expected revenue ramp-up due to operational "growing pains" and longer customer qualification cycles, resulting in ongoing margin drag (210 basis points on operating margin), which could negatively impact both near-term and long-term net margins and earnings if not resolved promptly.
New domestic U.S. manufacturing initiatives (such as the Wisconsin facility) carry significantly higher operating costs (estimated at least 50% above China), and require explicit long-term customer commitments at substantially higher pricing; any lack of such demand could leave TTM with underutilized, costly assets, leading to pressure on gross margin and lower free cash flow.
The company maintains notable customer concentration, with the top 5 customers forming 41% of total sales and one customer exceeding 10%; any loss or reduction of business from these key clients would expose TTM to meaningful revenue volatility and potential earnings downside.
Although TTM has diversified its global manufacturing presence, it retains significant capacity and expansion in China (Dongguan and Guangzhou), which leaves the company exposed to ongoing and potentially escalating U.S.–China geopolitical tensions, risking supply chain disruption and increased input costs that could depress future profitability.
The ongoing requirement for high capital expenditures (for facility buildouts and capacity expansions in Malaysia, New York, and Wisconsin) amid a changing product mix, coupled with the potential for inertia or missteps in moving up the advanced technology PCB value chain, could constrain margin expansion and result in lower return on invested capital if execution lags or new markets fail to scale as anticipated.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $56.75 for TTM Technologies based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $3.2 billion, earnings will come to $251.1 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 31.1x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.7%.
Given the current share price of $47.6, the analyst price target of $56.75 is 16.1% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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