Making sense of 1.75 trillion IPO

SpaceX is expected to go public under the ticker SPCX. There has been a huge amount of attention leading up to the listing, which isn’t surprising. SpaceX is one of the most important private companies of the last decade and has built leading positions across launch services, satellite internet, and increasingly AI infrastructure.

I believe SpaceX is one of the most impressive companies in the world. It has repeatedly achieved things that many people thought were impossible and has created advantages that competitors may struggle to replicate.

At the same time, SpaceX is more complex than simply a rocket company. In reality, it is a collection of businesses operating across space transportation, communications infrastructure, and artificial intelligence.

Understanding those different segments is important because they each have very different economics.

The foundation of the company remains its space business.

This includes Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, Dragon, Starship, government contracts, commercial launches, and future lunar and deep-space ambitions.

In 2025, the launch segment generated approximately $4.1 billion in revenue.

SpaceX now dominates global launch activity by volume, making it a critical part of the modern space industry. Companies building satellites, defense systems, and space-based infrastructure often rely on SpaceX to get their payloads into orbit.

Launch services are capital intensive.

Developing and operating rockets requires enormous investment, and programs such as Starship continue to consume significant resources. The strategic value of the business is clear, but long-term profitability remains harder to assess.

Starlink is arguably the most important part of the company today.

The satellite internet network has grown rapidly and now serves millions of customers across more than 100 countries.

Revenue reached roughly $11.4 billion in 2025, representing the majority of SpaceX’s overall sales.

Unlike the launch business, Starlink benefits from recurring subscription revenue. As the network scales, each additional customer helps spread infrastructure costs across a larger base.

Starlink may be the most straightforward part of the SpaceX story. It combines a large addressable market with recurring revenue and a growing global footprint.

The third major piece of the business is AI.

Following the acquisition of xAI, SpaceX now has exposure to AI models, computing infrastructure, and the X platform.

The combination gives the company access to data, distribution, and computing resources, all of which have become increasingly important in the AI ecosystem.

This segment generated an estimated $3.2 billion in revenue during 2025.

While AI remains highly competitive and outcomes are difficult to predict, it represents a potentially significant growth opportunity alongside SpaceX’s existing businesses.

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What makes SpaceX unusual is that investors are not buying a single business.

They are buying exposure to several large themes at once: space, global communications, and AI. These are heavy infrastructure businesses that SpaceX has managed to build with an incredible momentum.

The challenge is determining how much of that future potential is already reflected in the IPO valuation.

There is little doubt that SpaceX has built exceptional businesses.

The harder question for investors is whether the price they pay leaves enough room for future returns.

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What it takes for SpaceX to be worth 17.5 trillion valuation at IPO time?

Using Simply Wall St Future Multiple Valuator, for the stock to be Fairly Value today and be worth the offering price at US$135/share:

• Approx. US$313B Revenue in 10 years
• Net profit margin at 40% — Net income ~US$125B
• PE multiple in 10 years at 30x (to deserve this multiple they would still grow earnings at around 10% in year 10) — Future market cap ~US$3.75T

What combination of Space, Starlink and AI could realistically produce ~US$313B of annual revenue within 10 years?

Let's assume 3 businesses are equal contribution as we don't know how the world would be like in 10 years

Are these assumptions ambitious? Absolutely.

Are they impossible? Maybe not.

If AI dramatically increases global productivity, the world economy itself could become much larger than it is today. Entirely new industries may emerge. Space tourism could become accessible to wealthy consumers. Manufacturing, mining or energy generation could expand beyond Earth. Satellite connectivity may become as fundamental as electricity is today. AI infrastructure could become one of the largest markets ever created. Google apparently admitted they currently spend close to a billion monthly to borrow compute power from xAI.

Many of these ideas sound like science fiction today, but so did reusable rockets and thousands of internet satellites not long ago.

Whether SpaceX ultimately achieves this is yet to know. The exercise simply shows the scale of business required to justify today’s valuation assumptions.

In the meantime, I’ll remain an observer, watching one of the most fascinating IPOs in history unfold. I’ll also be digging deeper into the downstream businesses that could benefit from SpaceX’s fresh capital, where I suspect there may be more obvious undervalued opportunities.