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HBAN: Cadence Bank Acquisition Will Drive Southeast and Texas Market Expansion

Published
08 Aug 24
Updated
03 Nov 25
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AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
-1.7%
7D
-1.7%

Author's Valuation

US$19.7522.7% undervalued intrinsic discount

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

Last Update 03 Nov 25

Fair value Increased 0.63%

Analysts have raised their price target for Huntington Bancshares from $19.63 to $19.75, citing higher expected revenue growth and margin expansion supported by positive market momentum and recent acquisitions.

Analyst Commentary

Recent commentary from Street research reflects both optimism and caution regarding Huntington Bancshares in the context of its ongoing expansion and the announced acquisition of Cadence Bank.

Bullish Takeaways
  • Bullish analysts are encouraged by Huntington’s ongoing expansion into Texas and the Southeast. They view the Cadence acquisition as a strategic fit that supports the company’s long-term growth plans.
  • Price target raises by several analysts indicate expectations of continued revenue growth and improved operating leverage. This is driven by higher net interest margins and robust demand in core markets.
  • Core Midwest operations continue to demonstrate strong momentum. Some analysts suggest that Huntington’s superior growth potential remains underappreciated by the market.
  • Upward revisions to earnings per share estimates for 2025 and 2026 further reflect confidence in execution and the lender’s ability to capitalize on recent market expansions.
Bearish Takeaways
  • Bearish analysts remain cautious about valuation. Some price targets have been trimmed despite positive recent performance, with concerns over the pace of future growth.
  • There are questions about execution risk as Huntington integrates Cadence Bank, particularly regarding whether management can sustain revenue momentum while expanding into new geographic markets.
  • Despite generally stable credit metrics and positive operating leverage, some analysts are monitoring credit quality for any deterioration, which could impact future profitability.
  • While the guidance for loan growth is optimistic, analysts highlight the importance of maintaining disciplined M&A activity as Huntington continues its expansion strategy.

What's in the News

  • Huntington Bancshares will acquire Cadence Bank in a $7.4 billion all-stock transaction. CEO Steve Steinour described this deal as an important next stage for the company (The Wall Street Journal).
  • The company has raised its 2025 earnings guidance and increased the net interest income target to 10-11 percent, up from the previous range of 8-9 percent, citing stronger-than-expected loan growth and net interest margin.
  • Huntington introduced new family banking tools through a partnership with True Link. This initiative is designed to serve caregivers and families managing someone else’s finances, aiming to enhance practical support for households and protect vulnerable customers.
  • No shares were repurchased during the latest buyback tranche. The company reported zero shares bought back for $0 million between July and September 2025.

Valuation Changes

  • Consensus Analyst Price Target has increased slightly from $19.63 to $19.75, reflecting marginal optimism in valuation.
  • Discount Rate has edged down marginally from 7.30 percent to 7.29 percent, suggesting a slightly reduced risk premium or cost of equity.
  • Revenue Growth expectations have risen substantially, moving from 11.15 percent to 25.09 percent. This indicates higher anticipated expansion in the company’s top line.
  • Net Profit Margin projections have improved from 22.41 percent to 32.95 percent. This signals greater expected profitability.
  • Future P/E ratio has fallen significantly from 15.57x to 7.45x. This points to enhanced earnings forecasts or a shift in market valuation expectations.

Key Takeaways

  • Expansion into high-growth markets and strategic acquisitions are increasing revenue opportunities and supporting sustained earnings growth.
  • Investments in digital platforms and operational efficiency are driving strong fee income, improved margins, and long-term profitability.
  • Expansion risks, regional concentration, digital competition, margin pressure, and rising regulatory costs could constrain growth, profitability, and operational efficiency.

Catalysts

About Huntington Bancshares
    Operates as the bank holding company for The Huntington National Bank that provides commercial, consumer, and mortgage banking services in the United States.
What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?
  • The expansion into Texas via the Veritex acquisition, combined with ongoing organic growth in high-population-growth markets (Texas, North Carolina, South Carolina), is set to substantially increase Huntington's addressable market and fee-generating opportunities, likely driving higher revenue and earnings growth as these regions mature.
  • Investments in digital banking and value-added payments platforms, alongside strong adoption among tech-savvy demographics, have already resulted in double-digit growth in payments and wealth management fees and are expected to continue boosting noninterest income and net margin over the long term.
  • Continued growth in primary banking relationships and disciplined deposit pricing have enabled robust deposit growth at stable or declining costs, positioning Huntington to protect or expand net interest margin and fund loan growth efficiently, supporting profitability and EPS.
  • Strong execution in acquiring, retaining, and serving small and medium-sized business customers-including leadership in SBA lending and commercial payments-has driven above-peer loan and fee growth, supporting sustainable top-line expansion as SMEs remain a strategic focus.
  • Enhanced efficiency through technology investment, process reengineering, and scale from recent acquisitions is delivering positive operating leverage and improving the efficiency ratio trend, providing a tailwind for net margin and long-term earnings power.

Huntington Bancshares Earnings and Revenue Growth

Huntington Bancshares Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?
  • Analysts are assuming Huntington Bancshares's revenue will grow by 7.3% annually over the next 3 years.
  • Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 27.5% today to 26.3% in 3 years time.
  • Analysts expect earnings to reach $2.3 billion (and earnings per share of $1.66) by about September 2028, up from $2.0 billion today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $2.8 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $1.9 billion.
  • In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 15.1x on those 2028 earnings, up from 13.0x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Banks industry at 11.9x.
  • Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.41% per year for the next 3 years.
  • To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.25%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Huntington Bancshares Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Huntington Bancshares Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?
  • Ongoing expansion into Texas and the Carolinas, along with the announced Veritex acquisition, increases integration and overexpansion risks-potential operational challenges, culture clashes, or unanticipated costs could drive up expenses and impact net margin and reported earnings.
  • Continued heavy geographic and business concentration in the Midwest exposes Huntington to slower household formation and aging demographics, which could hinder organic deposit and loan growth, constraining long-term revenue expansion and balance sheet growth.
  • Industry-wide digitization and the rapid evolution of fintech challenge traditional banks; if Huntington fails to accelerate digital transformation relative to larger peers or disruptors, it risks losing market share and fee income, putting pressure on revenue and ROE.
  • Margin compression remains a concern due to persistent low or volatile interest rates; despite current NIM stability, future rate declines or heightened deposit competition could reduce net interest income and profitability.
  • Rising regulatory scrutiny, potential for increased capital requirements, and escalating compliance costs (including cybersecurity and data privacy) could increase operating expenses and limit Huntington's ability to grow loans, thereby compressing net margins and future earnings.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?
  • The analysts have a consensus price target of $19.32 for Huntington Bancshares based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $21.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $15.4.
  • In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $8.9 billion, earnings will come to $2.3 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 15.1x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.2%.
  • Given the current share price of $17.64, the analyst price target of $19.32 is 8.7% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
  • We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

How well do narratives help inform your perspective?

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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