BMRN: Shares Will Recover As Revenue Guidance Aligns With Market Expectations

Analysts have modestly reduced their price target for BioMarin Pharmaceutical, trimming it by $0.10 to $90.50. Recent updates reflect a more cautious outlook on revenue growth and profit margins in light of evolving competitive and regulatory expectations.

Analyst Commentary

Analyst perspectives on BioMarin Pharmaceutical have shifted recently as the company missed some Q3 revenue expectations and adjusted its financial guidance. Below are the key bullish and bearish themes emerging from Street research:

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts view the recent selloff as overdone, noting that shares now trade at a meaningful discount to large-cap peers. This may offer attractive value relative to future growth expectations.
Despite revenue headwinds, several analysts highlight solid operating leverage and credible long-term revenue growth guidance. The pipeline remains largely on track and management has reiterated guidance on key products for 2025.
Recent scenario planning and cash reserves position the company to pursue bolt-on acquisitions, such as the completed Inozyme deal. This supports future expansion opportunities.
While the range for 2027 revenue was revised down to $3.6B to $4B, the lower end aligns with consensus. Most bearish scenarios may already be priced into the stock, according to bullish analysts.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts are concerned by the company rescinding its formal 2027 guidance, citing increased competition and potential challenges in defending intellectual property in vital areas such as achondroplasia treatments.
Lowered price targets reflect diminished confidence in near- and medium-term growth. There is caution over the first "down quarter" for Voxzogo since launch, raising questions about future uptake and possible seasonality effects.
Risks identified include looming competition from other drugs such as oral FGFR inhibitors and potential launches of rival CNP analogs. These could erode BioMarin's market share and pressure margins.
Some analysts point to the need for clear evidence of successful competitive defense and sustained base business performance before a more constructive outlook can be justified.

What's in the News

The U.S. FDA accepted BioMarin's supplemental Biologics License Application for PALYNZIQ to expand treatment for phenylketonuria (PKU) to adolescents aged 12-17. A target action date is set for February 28, 2026 (Key Developments).
BioMarin revised its 2025 earnings guidance and now expects total revenues of $3,150 million to $3,200 million, up from its previous range (Key Developments).
New data from 14 studies on VOXZOGO were presented, showing anatomical improvements in spinal morphology in young children with achondroplasia and continued efficacy after puberty onset (Key Developments).
BioMarin was dropped from the FTSE All-World Index (USD) (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Consensus Analyst Price Target: Reduced slightly by $0.10 to $90.50 per share, reflecting tempered expectations.
Discount Rate: Risen marginally from 7.01% to 7.06%. This indicates a modest increase in perceived risk or required return.
Revenue Growth: Declined modestly from 7.32% to 7.20%. This points to slightly reduced forward growth projections.
Net Profit Margin: Fallen very slightly from 29.58% to 29.50%.
Future P/E: Increased minimally from 19.24x to 19.36x. This suggests marginally higher valuation multiples on near-term earnings.

Expanding global demand, new therapies, and strategic acquisitions strengthen BioMarin's revenue growth, market reach, and future pipeline potential.
Operational efficiency, disciplined cost management, and regulatory advantages support sustained profitability and long-term margin stability.
Revenue and earnings face mounting risks from escalating competition, pricing pressures, pipeline dependency, heightened expenses, and regulatory uncertainty across key products and markets.

Catalysts

About BioMarin Pharmaceutical

A biotechnology company, engages in the development and commercialization of therapies for life-threatening rare diseases and medical conditions in the United States, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, the Asia Pacific, and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Strong year-over-year revenue growth driven by increasing global demand, new patient starts, and international expansion of key therapies like VOXZOGO and VIMIZIM aligns with demographic shifts and improved rare disease diagnosis, supporting continued top-line revenue growth.
Accelerated pipeline advancement, including late-stage programs (BMN 333 for achondroplasia, BMN 401 for ENPP1 deficiency, and label expansions for PALYNZIQ), positions BioMarin to capitalize on growing patient pools through earlier and more accurate genetic identification, which should expand future addressable markets and boost revenue.
Recent acquisition of Inozyme and ongoing business development initiatives broaden BioMarin's enzyme therapy portfolio and introduce new high-value therapies targeting severe unmet needs, enhancing diversification and durability of revenue streams over the long term.
Company's operational leverage and disciplined cost management as new products move from R&D to commercial stage-combined with efforts to improve patient adherence and maximize market penetration-are likely to support margin expansion and drive earnings growth.
Supportive regulatory environment for orphan drugs, including accelerated pathways and favorable exclusivity, provides revenue protection and mitigates risks from generic/biosimilar competition, thereby underpinning long-term profitability and net margin stability.

BioMarin Pharmaceutical Earnings and Revenue Growth

BioMarin Pharmaceutical Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming BioMarin Pharmaceutical's revenue will grow by 7.6% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 21.5% today to 29.8% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $1.1 billion (and earnings per share of $5.75) by about September 2028, up from $657.2 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $1.3 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $758 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 20.3x on those 2028 earnings, up from 16.3x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Biotechs industry at 15.3x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.75% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.78%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

BioMarin Pharmaceutical Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Intensifying competition in the rare disease and skeletal growth disorder market-such as the development of competing long-acting CNP therapies and potential combination treatments with growth hormone-may limit future revenue growth of BioMarin's key asset VOXZOGO and upcoming agents like BMN 333, raising risks of price erosion and reduced market share. (Likely impacts: revenue, net margins)
Ongoing and anticipated increases in R&D and SG&A expenses related to pipeline advancement, business development (e.g., Inozyme acquisition integration), and commercial expansion could compress operating margins and result in lower future earnings, especially if anticipated product approvals and launches are delayed or unsuccessful. (Likely impacts: net margins, earnings)
Secular pricing pressure and order timing outside the U.S. (noted in revised forward guidance), as well as the backdrop of global reimbursement reform and payer scrutiny for rare disease treatments, may weaken BioMarin's ability to achieve premium pricing and sustainable top-line growth. (Likely impacts: revenue, net margins)
Portfolio concentration risk remains elevated, with current and upcoming revenue disproportionately dependent on a limited number of products (VOXZOGO, PALYNZIQ, VIMIZIM); any issues such as loss of exclusivity, unfavorable intellectual property decisions (e.g., ongoing litigation/IPR&D review, orphan drug extension disputes), or failure to achieve regulatory milestones could result in abrupt revenue declines and higher volatility in earnings. (Likely impacts: revenue, earnings)
Regulatory risks-including the need for successful Phase II/III and pivotal trials, evolving requirements for functional and clinical endpoints (as seen for BMN 401/ENERGY III), and potential delays or negative outcomes in ongoing ITC proceedings, FDA reviews, and international submissions-may increase costs, delay market entry, or limit future approvals, thereby slowing prospective revenue and profit growth. (Likely impacts: revenue, net margins, earnings)

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $96.593 for BioMarin Pharmaceutical based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $122.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $60.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $3.8 billion, earnings will come to $1.1 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 20.3x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.8%.
Given the current share price of $55.69, the analyst price target of $96.59 is 42.3% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

How well do narratives help inform your perspective?

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

BMRN: Revenue Guidance Revision Will Reveal New Competitive Dynamics Ahead