Last Update 21 Dec 25

Fair value Increased 0.71%

BRBR: Share Repurchases Will Drive Future Upside Amid Competitive Margin Pressures

The analyst price target for BellRing Brands has been modestly reduced from $58.00 to $38.00 per share, as analysts recalibrate their outlook to reflect a more competitive retail backdrop, tempered fiscal 2026 growth and margin expectations, and increased costs required to defend Premier Protein's brand equity.

Analyst Commentary

Analysts are divided on BellRing Brands following the latest results and fiscal 2026 outlook, with some emphasizing discounted valuation and durable brand equity, while others focus on execution risk in a more crowded category.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts highlight that the current share price already discounts significant competitive and margin risk. This implies potential upside if BellRing executes even at the low end of its guidance.
Several notes point to Premier Protein's strong brand equity and consumer loyalty. These analysts argue there is a ceiling to how much share new entrants can capture, which supports a premium multiple over time.
Recent commentary points to improved clarity on management's plans to defend share and invest behind the brand. This, in turn, could stabilize topline growth and protect long term EBITDA expansion.
Some models still assume mid single digit sales growth in fiscal 2026, with a path back toward the 7 to 9 percent long term algorithm after early headwinds. This supports the view that current pressures are cyclical rather than structural.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts see downside risk to fiscal 2026 revenue and profit targets, citing a weaker start to the year in retail tracking data and limited visibility into key club and mass customers.
There is growing concern that the cost to compete in the ready to drink protein category, including higher trade spend and marketing, will compress margins and delay any meaningful EBITDA re acceleration.
Lowered sales and EPS estimates, including reductions to fiscal 2026 growth assumptions, reflect skepticism that BellRing can quickly re accelerate from low to mid single digit growth given intensifying competition.
The combination of higher input costs, tariffs, and stepped up brand investment raises the risk that execution missteps could lead to further estimate cuts and constrain multiple expansion in the near term.

What's in the News

BellRing Brands Board authorizes a new share repurchase plan on November 19, 2025, enabling the company to buy back up to $600 million of its stock over two years, signaling confidence in long term cash generation (Key Developments).
Under the newly authorized November 19, 2025 program, BellRing Brands announces a formal share repurchase plan of up to $600 million, providing additional flexibility to return capital to shareholders (Key Developments).
From July 1, 2025 to August 29, 2025, BellRing Brands repurchases 3,082,892 shares, or 2.45 percent of shares outstanding, for $123.38 million, bringing total buybacks under the March 6, 2025 authorization to 4,642,413 shares, or 3.67 percent, for $226.34 million (Key Developments).
From September 2, 2025 to November 19, 2025, the company repurchases 3,283,438 shares, or 2.61 percent of shares outstanding, for $123.5 million, completing the buyback announced on September 2, 2025 (Key Developments).
BellRing Brands issues fiscal 2026 guidance, projecting net sales of $2.41 billion to $2.49 billion, which implies 4 percent to 8 percent net sales growth amid a more competitive ready to drink protein market (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

The Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly to approximately $38.00 per share, up from about $37.73, reflecting a modestly higher intrinsic value assessment.
The Discount Rate has increased marginally to roughly 8.11 percent from about 8.06 percent, indicating a slightly higher required return or perceived risk profile.
Revenue growth assumptions are essentially unchanged at approximately 5.54 percent, signaling a stable outlook for top line expansion.
Net profit margin expectations remain effectively flat at around 10.05 percent, suggesting no meaningful change in long term profitability assumptions.
The future P/E multiple has risen slightly to about 17.0x from roughly 16.9x, implying a modest uptick in the market multiple applied to BellRing's forward earnings.

Category leadership and expanded retail presence drive sustained revenue growth and margin gains through greater scale and distribution.
Innovation, supply chain optimization, and targeted marketing strengthen brand equity, address evolving consumer trends, and support long-term earnings growth.
Margin pressure, heavy competition, brand concentration risk, and regulatory threats may limit profit growth and revenue stability despite increased marketing investments.

Catalysts

About BellRing Brands

Provides various nutrition products in the United States.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Accelerating household penetration and distribution gains in the ready-to-drink (RTD) protein shake category, which still has significant "runway" as only about half of U.S. households currently consume RTDs, with Premier Protein positioned as the category leader-expected to drive sustained topline growth.
Retailers are allocating more shelf space and expanding displays for high-protein, convenient nutrition products, creating a structural tailwind for category expansion and enabling incremental volume and market share gains, directly benefiting revenue growth and gross margin through improved scale.
Expansion into new product formats (single-serve, non-dairy almond milk shakes, indulgence lines) and increased innovation pipelines allow BellRing to address evolving consumer preferences and new consumption occasions, supporting both revenue growth and margin accretion as more premium, differentiated offerings gain traction.
Strategic investments in regional co-manufacturing networks and supply chain optimization have unlocked greater capacity and operational agility, positioning the company to capitalize on upcoming distribution opportunities and deliver enhanced cost efficiencies for improved net margins.
Ongoing investment in brand support, digital marketing, and omnichannel merchandising-especially modernizing packaging and targeting younger consumers-leverages long-term trends in health, wellness, and digital commerce to strengthen brand equity, accelerate household buy rates, and support higher-margin direct-to-consumer channels, driving long-term earnings growth.

BellRing Brands Earnings and Revenue Growth

BellRing Brands Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming BellRing Brands's revenue will grow by 8.1% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 10.3% today to 11.1% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $312.5 million (and earnings per share of $2.64) by about September 2028, up from $228.3 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 24.9x on those 2028 earnings, up from 20.8x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Personal Products industry at 22.8x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 2.18% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.16%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

BellRing Brands Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Rising input cost inflation and continued cost headwinds-especially from whey protein and tariffs on imported dairy-are driving down gross margins, with management indicating these will impact results through at least fiscal 2026, threatening sustained margin compression and net earnings growth.
Intensifying competition in the RTD protein shake category, as both large CPG incumbents and new entrants secure additional retail space (particularly in club channels), may require higher promotional spending and could drive increased price competition, pressuring both revenue growth and profitability.
Heavy reliance on Premier Protein as the core brand creates significant concentration risk if demand shifts, market share erodes due to evolving consumer preferences, or future innovation fails to resonate, which could materially impact top-line growth and earnings stability.
Increased promotional and marketing investments necessary to maintain shelf space and consumer engagement in a crowded, innovation-driven market may offset gains in operating leverage, constraining improvements in net margins and profit growth.
Ongoing regulatory threats-including the risk of higher tariffs on key ingredients from New Zealand/EU and the potential for future policy changes targeting nutrition labeling or sugar/protein content-could drive structural increases in costs of goods or restrict product formulations, impacting both gross margin and future revenue potential.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $52.5 for BellRing Brands based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $72.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $40.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $2.8 billion, earnings will come to $312.5 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 24.9x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.2%.
Given the current share price of $37.71, the analyst price target of $52.5 is 28.2% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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