Specialty Egg And Prepared Foods Expansion Will Drive Long-Term Earnings Resilience

Catalysts

About Cal-Maine Foods

Cal-Maine Foods is the largest vertically integrated egg producer in the United States, supplying conventional, specialty and value added prepared egg products to retail and foodservice customers.

What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

• Expanding specialty egg and prepared foods offerings, including high growth cage free, pasture raised and ready to eat formats, is expected to lift average selling prices and shift the mix toward higher margin revenue streams, supporting net margin expansion and earnings growth.
• Rising consumer focus on affordable, high quality protein and clean label foods, together with eggs remaining one of the lowest cost protein sources, is expected to support resilient volume demand across economic cycles and underpin top line stability and long term revenue growth.
• Ongoing investments in modernization, automation, biosecurity and in line facilities, plus a broad vertically integrated footprint, are expected to reinforce Cal-Maine’s low cost positioning and operational resilience, supporting higher gross margins and more consistent earnings.
• Disciplined M&A and organic capacity additions in prepared foods, exemplified by Echo Lake and the new high speed pancake line, create a scalable platform in value added egg products, which may increase utilization, operating leverage and earnings per share.
• Strong cash generation, a virtually debt free balance sheet and a formalized capital allocation framework that now includes opportunistic share repurchases provide multiple levers to compound shareholder returns and enhance per share earnings.

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

• Analysts are assuming Cal-Maine Foods's revenue will decrease by 15.0% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 28.9% today to 4.2% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $114.1 million (and earnings per share of $6.49) by about December 2028, down from $1.3 billion today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the analysts, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 49.3x on those 2028 earnings, up from 3.3x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Food industry at 20.4x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 1.09% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.96%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

• Highly pathogenic avian influenza remains an unresolved structural threat. Further outbreaks that require flock depopulation could constrain egg supply, disrupt production and drive up biosecurity and replacement costs. This would pressure revenue stability and net margins over time.
• The strategy to shift more volume into specialty eggs and prepared foods assumes sustained consumer willingness to pay premium prices. If economic conditions tighten or retailers push back on pricing, mix upgrades and volume growth in higher margin categories could slow, which would limit long-term revenue growth and margin expansion.
• Prepared foods growth and M&A-driven expansion, including Echo Lake and other potential acquisitions, increase operational complexity and integration risk. Any missteps in scaling new lines or realizing synergies could dilute returns on invested capital and weigh on earnings.
• The move toward longer term customer contracts and more cost-plus pricing may reduce earnings volatility. However, it can also cap upside in strong markets. If commodity egg prices remain elevated for extended periods, the company could under earn relative to spot benchmarks and limit net income growth.
• Industry-wide capacity rebuild in the layer flock and expansion by smaller producers, if not offset by incremental demand, could lead to oversupply and lower pricing for shell eggs. This would compress gross margins and weaken earnings despite Cal-Maine’s low-cost position.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $98.0 for Cal-Maine Foods based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $2.7 billion, earnings will come to $114.1 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 49.3x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.0%.
  
• Given the current share price of $87.58, the analyst price target of $98.0 is 10.6% higher. Despite analysts expecting the underlying business to decline, they seem to believe it's more valuable than what the market thinks.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.