Last Update 05 Dec 25

AMPX: New Leadership And UAV Demand Will Drive Future Battery Upside

Analysts have modestly raised their price target for Amprius Technologies to about $17.17, citing the company’s Q3 earnings beat, prudent scaling strategy, strengthened leadership, and expectations for accelerating demand for its high energy density battery solutions.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish analysts highlight that the series of price target increases reflects growing confidence in Amprius Technologies execution and earnings power, particularly following its recent Q3 earnings beat. The consensus view is that the company is better positioned to capture accelerating demand for high energy density batteries while maintaining financial discipline.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts see the repeated step ups in price targets into the mid to high teens as evidence that the market is still catching up to Amprius Technologies growth and margin potential.
The company management is viewed as taking a prudent approach to scaling manufacturing capacity, which supports the valuation by reducing execution risk around large capex commitments.
Strong expectations for significant long term demand growth for high energy density solutions underpin forecasts for sustained revenue expansion and justify using premium multiples versus peers.
The hiring of a new CFO with experience managing rapid expansion is seen as a positive for financial discipline, capital allocation, and the credibility of both near term and long term forecasts.
Evidence that Amprius Technologies technology is both market leading and capable of being mass produced supports the argument for keeping valuation multiples in the upper tier of comparable companies, especially if additional customer wins and partnerships materialize.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts may question whether the rapid escalation of price targets, including those around $20, bakes in an optimistic trajectory for adoption and leaves limited room for execution missteps.
There is ongoing risk that milestones, production qualification, and ramp up of new capacity could face delays, which would pressure growth assumptions and near term valuation support.
Reliance on premium multiples relative to peers makes the shares vulnerable to sentiment shifts if growth expectations are revised lower or if competing technologies narrow the perceived performance gap.
The long dated nature of some demand drivers and partnerships means that a portion of the bullish case depends on successful commercialization at scale, which remains to be fully proven in broader end markets.

What's in the News

Nokia selected Amprius SiCore cells to power its next generation drone in a box systems, following extensive qualification that highlighted superior endurance, power delivery, and safety for high reliability UAV operations (client announcement).
Amprius launched the Amprius Korea Battery Alliance to expand its global manufacturing footprint, deepen relationships across Korea's lithium ion supply chain, and lift contract manufacturing capacity to more than 2.0 GWh worldwide (strategic alliance).
Empirical Systems Aerospace chose Amprius SiCore SA08 cells for UAV battery packs serving defense, security, logistics, and public safety missions, citing longer flight times and higher payload capacity (client announcement).
Ricardo C. Rodriguez was appointed Chief Financial Officer, succeeding retiring CFO Sandra Wallach, bringing two decades of experience scaling electrification and advanced materials businesses (executive change).
Amprius secured a purchase order of more than $35 million for its SiCore cells from a leading unmanned aerial systems manufacturer, building on a prior $15 million order and reinforcing traction in the high growth UAS market (client announcement).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value Estimate is unchanged at approximately $17.17 per share, indicating a stable assessment of intrinsic value.
The Discount Rate has fallen slightly from about 9.12 percent to 9.11 percent, reflecting a marginally lower perceived risk profile.
Revenue Growth is effectively unchanged at roughly 80.14 percent, suggesting no material revisions to long term top line expansion assumptions.
Net Profit Margin is essentially flat at about 7.02 percent, indicating stable expectations for long term profitability.
Future P/E has edged down slightly from about 148.01x to 147.95x, implying a very small reduction in the forward valuation multiple.

Strong demand for advanced batteries, premium pricing, and key customer wins support robust revenue growth and margin outperformance.
Expansion into global manufacturing and automation reduces volatility, increases scale, and enhances visibility and stability of future earnings.
Heavy market concentration, production scaling risks, supply chain vulnerabilities, increased competition, and potential equity dilution collectively threaten margin stability and long-term earnings growth.

Catalysts

About Amprius Technologies

Develops, manufactures, and markets lithium-ion batteries for mobility applications.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Rapid acceleration in commercial drone and electric mobility adoption-driven by decarbonization initiatives and government policy mandates (including U.S. Executive Orders supporting domestic drone production)-is expected to unlock significant, sustained demand for Amprius' advanced batteries; this should drive robust top-line revenue growth as more customers move from qualification to production volume orders.
The industry's increasing need for lightweight, high-energy-density battery solutions (for drones, electric aviation, and next-gen vehicles) enables Amprius to maintain premium pricing and outperform on gross and net margins due to its demonstrated product performance advantages-evidenced by record energy density and recent customer wins (e.g., AALTO/Airbus and U.S. Army).
Diversification of the customer and geographic revenue base through global contract manufacturing partnerships (notably new capacity in South Korea) is expected to reduce revenue volatility and support scale-up, which should improve operating leverage and expand net earnings over time.
Ongoing investment in automation and manufacturing capacity (supported by government contracts like the $10.5M Defense Innovation Unit award) positions Amprius to capture a larger share of future high-margin opportunities in defense and critical infrastructure, enhancing both revenue visibility and earnings stability.
First-mover advantage, validated technology, and policy tailwinds for domestic and friendly-nation battery sourcing (NDAA-compliant, U.S. DoD engagement) position the company to secure long-term supply agreements, helping transition to recurring, higher-margin revenue streams and improving forward earnings quality.

Amprius Technologies Earnings and Revenue Growth

Amprius Technologies Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Amprius Technologies's revenue will grow by 89.8% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -86.4% today to 4.4% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $13.4 million (and earnings per share of $0.05) by about September 2028, up from $-38.7 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 190.6x on those 2028 earnings, up from -22.9x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Electrical industry at 29.6x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.71%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Amprius Technologies Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Amprius remains highly concentrated in the aviation and drone markets (over 90% of quarterly revenue), making its revenues vulnerable to fluctuations in demand or procurement cycles from these niche sectors; a slowdown or lost key contract could create significant revenue volatility.
The company faces ongoing risks around scaling its proprietary silicon anode technology from pilot to mass production, as high complexity and evolving manufacturing requirements may lead to persistent high costs, margin pressure, and delays in achieving steady-state profitability.
As Amprius capitalizes heavily on contract manufacturing partnerships (notably in China and South Korea), it is exposed to supply chain disruptions, geopolitical risk, and potential material shortages, which could impact costs, delivery timelines, or product quality, ultimately affecting earnings and margin stability.
Industry-wide battery cost reductions and increased global production capacity may compress pricing power for advanced chemistries, threatening Amprius' ability to sustain premium margins as competitors close the technology gap and battery solutions become more commoditized.
Substantial additional capital expenditures, including government contracts and future U.S. manufacturing expansion, could necessitate further equity dilution-especially in the absence of timely government incentives or tariffs-potentially weighing on shareholder returns and long-term earnings growth.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $13.0 for Amprius Technologies based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $18.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $10.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $306.6 million, earnings will come to $13.4 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 190.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.7%.
Given the current share price of $7.09, the analyst price target of $13.0 is 45.5% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Analyst Commentary Drives Higher Price Targets for Amprius Technologies Amid Growth Optimism