AI And Cloud Will Revolutionize Nonprofit Education And Healthcare

Key Takeaways

• Expanding cloud-based platforms, AI-driven innovation, and unique network effects are driving higher user adoption, retention, and recurring revenue growth.
  
• Operational efficiencies, margin improvements, and strong data security are strengthening competitive differentiation and supporting long-term earnings expansion.
  
• Heightened competition, shifting customer needs, and pressure to innovate may erode Blackbaud's pricing power, revenue growth, and long-term market relevance.

Catalysts

Engages in the provision of cloud software and services in the United States and internationally.

• Blackbaud is positioned to benefit from accelerated digital transformation across the nonprofit, education, and healthcare sectors, as evidenced by recent large customer wins upgrading from legacy systems to Blackbaud's modern, integrated cloud platforms. This migration is increasing demand for its solutions and underpins both expanding recurring revenues and higher renewal rates.
  
• The company's unique ability to connect its nonprofit fundraising solutions with corporate employee engagement platforms (such as YourCause) is creating a network effect, which should drive greater market penetration and user adoption-leading to higher average revenue per user and top-line growth.
  
• Aggressive and ongoing investments in product innovation, particularly in generative and Agentic AI, are expected to drive new monetizable offerings over the next year (including separately priced AI products like a virtual fundraiser), supporting incremental revenue streams and margin expansion from high-value software.
  
• The shift toward cloud-based SaaS subscription models and improvements in operational efficiency-including automation and AI-driven internal initiatives-are lowering costs and improving gross and net margins, providing significant leverage to long-term earnings growth.
  
• Heightened importance of data security and compliance is prompting organizations to seek robust, purpose-built solutions, setting Blackbaud apart from legacy or less sophisticated providers; this is expected to boost customer retention, win rates, and recurring revenue predictability.

Blackbaud Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Blackbaud's revenue will grow by 3.2% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -24.5% today to 11.4% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $143.1 million (and earnings per share of $2.97) by about September 2028, up from $-279.4 million today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 29.6x on those 2028 earnings, up from -11.7x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Software industry at 36.2x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 3.87% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 9.46%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Blackbaud Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Intensifying competition from agile, cloud-native, and low-cost SaaS platforms, as well as from established enterprise players with superior integration (e.g., Salesforce, Oracle), could commoditize Blackbaud's core feature set and put downward pressure on pricing, potentially reducing revenue growth and gross margins.
  
• Margin compression risk due to continued investments in security, AI, and cybersecurity initiatives-especially given heightened expectations after past data breaches-may offset operational efficiency gains and weigh on long-term net margins.
  
• The company's mid-single-digit organic revenue growth guidance suggests a maturing core market and possible limited upsell potential or customer churn, particularly as legacy product dependence and ecosystem "stickiness" face challenges from newer solutions, potentially hindering recurring revenue and net dollar retention.
  
• Ongoing donor fatigue, economic uncertainty, and persistent inflation could constrain nonprofit, educational, and faith-based organization budgets, making them more conservative with technology spending, resulting in slower top-line revenue growth and lengthened sales cycles.
  
• Accelerating innovation in AI-driven donor engagement, analytics, and alternative fundraising tools by both start-ups and software giants may outpace Blackbaud's R&D, risking product relevance, decreased customer stickiness, and market share loss, negatively impacting long-term earnings and growth.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of $76.833 for Blackbaud based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $85.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $65.0.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $1.3 billion, earnings will come to $143.1 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 29.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 9.5%.
• Given the current share price of $68.56, the analyst price target of $76.83 is 10.8% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.