Last Update 06 Feb 26

Fair value Increased 11%

MUX: Future Returns Will Be Driven By Advancing Multi Jurisdiction Gold Projects

Analysts have raised their price target on McEwen Mining by about $3, reflecting updated views on fair value and future P/E that are supported by recent Street research commentary on the company.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research around the lifted price targets focuses on how current market pricing lines up with expectations for McEwen Mining’s execution and earnings power. Here is how bullish and cautious views are shaping up.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts see the higher price target as better aligned with their updated P/E assumptions, suggesting they view current earnings potential as underappreciated at recent share prices.
They point to recent research commentary as support that management’s execution on key projects could justify a higher valuation multiple if operational plans stay on track.
Some expect that improved visibility around future production and cost profiles can help reduce uncertainty around earnings forecasts, which in turn supports the revised fair value range.
Bullish analysts generally frame the stock as offering a more attractive risk reward profile after updating their models, with upside tied to consistent delivery against guidance.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts remain cautious that the higher target may already factor in optimistic assumptions on project execution, leaving less room for error if timelines or budgets shift.
They highlight that the revised valuation still relies on forecasts that may be sensitive to changes in input costs, metal prices, or permitting progress, which could pressure future earnings.
Some are wary that if operating metrics fall short of expectations, the P/E used in current models might prove too rich, limiting potential upside from here.
Bearish analysts also flag that the target increase does not remove exposure to sector wide risks, so they see a need for ongoing proof of consistent execution before assigning higher valuation multiples.

What's in the News

McEwen reported new drill results at the Gold Bar Mine Complex in Nevada, including its best Windfall hole to date at 5.55 gpt gold over 44.2 meters. The company is advancing the Windfall, Lookout Mountain and Unity Ridge deposits toward production and preparing updated Mineral Resource Estimates and further exploration spending in 2026. (Key Developments)
The company released its Year End 2025 Mineral Resource Estimate for the Grey Fox Project at the Fox Complex in Timmins, Ontario, outlining 1.9 million Indicated and 436,000 Inferred gold ounces at a gold price assumption of US$3,000 per ounce. It also highlighted a planned PFS in second quarter 2026 that will evaluate both underground and open pit options. (Key Developments)
McEwen announced final drill results ahead of an updated Mineral Resource Estimate for the Tartan Mine Project in Manitoba, including an intercept of 7.5 gpt gold over 18.9 meters. These results will inform future mine planning as the company progresses engineering and permitting work. (Key Developments)
The company received an extension of the Environmental Impact Assessment for the El Gallo Mine in Mexico, clearing the way for Phase 1 mill construction targeting a mid 2026 start and a mid 2027 first gold pour. Expected Phase 1 output is about 20,000 gold equivalent ounces annually from reprocessed leach pad material, with remaining capital costs of roughly US$25 million. (Key Developments)
McEwen entered definitive agreements for a private placement of Canadian Exploration Expense and Canadian Development Expense flow through common shares, for expected aggregate proceeds of about C$12.4 million. Part of the offering is scheduled to close in December 2025 and the remainder is expected to close in January 2026. (Key Developments)

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: raised from US$24.60 to US$27.30, representing a moderate increase in the estimated share value range used in the analysis.
Discount Rate: adjusted slightly higher from 7.88% to 8.08%, indicating a marginally higher required return in the updated model.
Revenue Growth: reduced from 46.44% to 38.26%, signaling more tempered expectations for future top line expansion.
Net Profit Margin: lowered from 73.24% to 31.69%, reflecting a significantly less optimistic view on future profitability levels.
Future P/E: increased from 4.52x to 13.85x, suggesting a materially higher valuation multiple being applied in the new assumptions.

Progress on copper projects and focus on responsible mining could enhance growth prospects, equity value, and access to ESG-focused capital.
Ongoing operational improvements and successful exploration at gold and silver mines may drive higher margins, production, and long-term revenue growth.
Persistent operational setbacks, execution risks, and prolonged permitting could weigh on profitability, strain capital resources, and limit future growth and returns for shareholders.

Catalysts

About McEwen

Engages in the exploration, development, production, and sale of gold and silver deposits in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and Argentina.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The accelerating global demand for copper driven by clean energy transition and electrification is likely to positively impact McEwen's future revenue growth; progress on the Los Azules project, with feasibility study due in 2025 and improved government support (e.g., elimination of export duties), positions the company to capitalize on this trend as copper prices rise.
Continued investment in exploration and drill success at existing mines (e.g., Froome West, Grey Fox, Tartan) support the potential for higher future gold and silver production, extending mine life and lowering production costs, which can boost both revenue and operating margins over time.
Ongoing cost optimization and operational improvements at key assets like Fox Complex and Gold Bar, combined with increased production expected in the second half of the year, are likely to expand net margins and increase operating cash flow.
The spin-out and potential IPO of McEwen Copper, supported by progress on regulatory approvals (RIGI) and robust market interest, could unlock higher equity value and provide additional liquidity for balance sheet flexibility and future growth initiatives.
The company's focus on responsible mining, safety, and community engagement aligns with growing institutional preference for ESG-friendly projects, improving potential access to premium financing and offtake agreements, which could lower long-term cost of capital and support earnings growth.

McEwen Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming McEwen's revenue will grow by 38.4% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -8.1% today to 45.1% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $201.4 million (and earnings per share of $2.59) by about September 2028, up from $-13.5 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 5.4x on those 2028 earnings, up from -54.2x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the CA Metals and Mining industry at 22.5x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 2.23% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.32%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

McEwen Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Ongoing operational underperformance and production shortfalls at core assets, such as the Q2 production being slightly behind objectives due to manpower issues and ore blend/recovery challenges at San José, could persist, resulting in lower-than-expected revenue and reduced cash flow.
Execution risks around major development projects, including Los Azules in Argentina and the Tartan mine restart, may lead to cost overruns, delays in permitting (notably 2–3 years for Nevada projects and uncertainty around RIGI approval in Argentina), and higher capital requirements, compressing net margins and hindering earnings growth.
Heightened regulatory and permitting timelines, as evidenced by multiyear approval periods in Nevada and Argentina (with the RIGI process described as new and subject to delays), could restrict project development pace, delaying future revenue streams and impacting long-term growth projections.
The need for updated infrastructure, such as the dewatering and replacement of obsolete milling and crushing circuits at the Tartan mine, presents unforeseen capital expenditures and potentially prolonged downtimes, which could pressure profitability and delay the expected increase in operating income.
The history and likelihood of future equity raises or debt financing to fund capital-intensive exploration and expansion-despite current liquidity-could lead to shareholder dilution, higher interest costs, and consequently limit future per-share earnings and share price appreciation.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $15.312 for McEwen based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $17.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $13.75.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $446.1 million, earnings will come to $201.4 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 5.4x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.3%.
Given the current share price of $13.56, the analyst price target of $15.31 is 11.4% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

MUX: Robust Los Azules Study Will Drive Long-Term Value And Production Uplift