The Great Re-Rating of Nuclear Electrons.
The story behind Constellation Energy in 2026 is the total convergence of Big Tech and Baseload Power. For the last decade, utilities were valued on "rate-of-return" regulation; today, CEG is being valued on "speed-to-market." Hyperscalers like Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta have hit a physical wall: they have the chips, but they don't have the power.
Constellation sits on the most valuable real estate in the AI economy: nuclear reactors that provide 24/7 carbon-free energy. The Crane Clean Energy Center (Three Mile Island) restart wasn't just a project; it was a proof of concept that tech giants are willing to pay 100% premiums over wholesale rates to secure green power.
The "Intrinsic Floor" of $400.14—nearly 38% above the current price—suggests the market is still underestimating the operational leverage from the Calpine merger. By combining its nuclear fleet with Calpine’s natural gas and geothermal assets, CEG can now offer "Hybrid Power Packs" to data centers: nuclear for the base, and gas to handle the peak spikes.
The Play: How to Trade the February 17 Earnings
Constellation reports Tuesday, February 17, 2026, before the market opens.
- The Catalyst: Look for "Contracted Backlog" updates. Following the CyrusOne 1100 MW deal announced earlier this month, the market wants to see if CEG can sign a third major hyperscale partner (likely Meta or Google) for its Texas facilities.
- The Strategy:
- The Pre-Earnings Accumulation: CEG has recently pulled back 24% from its 52-week highs during a broader utility sector "cool down." With the stock at $288, you are buying at a significant discount to the $400 fair value.
- The Earnings Trade: CEG has a history of "selling the news" even on good beats. If the stock dips on Feb 17 despite a beat (due to high expectations), use it as a "generational entry point." The long-term re-rating toward a "tech-multiple" (P/E of 30x+) is the primary driver over the next 18 months.
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