Last Update 05 Jan 26

Fair value Decreased 2.42%

NWL: Productivity Actions And Cost Controls Will Support Future Earnings Stabilization

Analysts have trimmed their price targets on Newell Brands, with cuts such as US$1 to US$6 and US$1 to US$4.25. These adjustments reflect ongoing concerns about topline pressure, a softer revenue trajectory and a slightly lower assumed future P/E multiple, even as margin expectations are adjusted higher.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research paints a mixed picture for Newell Brands, with price target cuts reflecting both ongoing execution headwinds and some credit for restructuring and productivity efforts already in motion.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts highlight that restructuring plans and productivity work are in place, which they see as a potential support for margins even as revenue stays under pressure.
Some still maintain positive ratings while trimming targets, suggesting they see room for execution improvement even at lower share price expectations.
There is a view that current valuations already incorporate a fair amount of pessimism around the small cap household, personal care and beauty group, which can limit further downside if execution stabilizes.
Improved cost discipline and productivity progress are seen as key levers that could help earnings hold up better than topline trends might imply, if management delivers consistently.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts point to continuing topline declines as a core concern, arguing that revenue pressure makes it harder for cost savings alone to support the current valuation.
Price target cuts to ranges such as US$6 and US$4.25 reflect caution that a softer revenue trajectory and lower assumed future P/E multiple leave less room for execution missteps.
The broader group exposure to household, personal care and beauty is flagged as facing a challenging operating backdrop, with value seeking behavior from consumers weighing on growth assumptions.
There is concern that even with restructuring progress, it may take time before the benefits are clearly visible in sales trends, which can keep sentiment and valuation restrained.

What's in the News

Newell Brands revised its fourth quarter 2025 earnings guidance, indicating that net sales are expected to land toward the lower end of its prior range as Latin America sales trends improve more slowly than first anticipated (Corporate guidance, lowered).
The company announced a global productivity plan that includes reducing its global workforce by over 900 professional and clerical employees, about 10% of that employee group, with most U.S. reductions expected this month and international actions continuing through 2026 (Discontinued operations/downsizing).
As part of the same productivity plan, Newell Brands plans to close about 20 Yankee Candle stores in the U.S. and Canada, representing roughly 1% of brand sales, with closures expected in January 2026 (Discontinued operations/downsizing).
Newell Brands issued financial guidance for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, estimating GAAP net sales change of 4.0% to 1.0% for the fourth quarter and 5.0% to 4.5% for the full year, and normalized EPS of US$0.16 to US$0.20 for the quarter and US$0.56 to US$0.60 for the full year (Corporate guidance, new/confirmed).
Newell highlighted its 12,000 square foot Customer Experience Center in Hoboken, New Jersey, designed as an immersive space for retail partners to see product lines across categories like food storage, writing, outdoor and recreation, baby, and home fragrance. Early partner feedback has been described as overwhelmingly positive (Business expansion).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: trimmed slightly from US$5.18 to US$5.05 per share.
Discount Rate: kept unchanged at 12.5%.
Revenue Growth: assumed long term growth rate reduced from about 1.26% to about 1.07%.
Net Profit Margin: modeled margin lifted from about 5.87% to about 6.16%.
Future P/E: target P/E multiple eased from about 7.13x to about 6.66x.

Product innovation, digital engagement, and premiumization are strengthening brand loyalty and supporting both revenue growth and higher profit margins.
Portfolio optimization and cost-saving initiatives are enhancing operational efficiency, cash flow quality, and competitive positioning amidst shifting consumer and retail trends.
Weak core sales, macroeconomic pressures, and reliance on tariffs threaten Newell's revenue recovery, competitive edge, and financial flexibility, increasing risks to future growth.

Catalysts

About Newell Brands

Engages in the design, manufacture, sourcing, and distribution of consumer and commercial products worldwide.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Newell's investments in product innovation, particularly the revitalization of core brands (such as Yankee Candle and Rubbermaid) and enhanced marketing campaigns, are expected to accelerate revenue growth and support higher pricing power as consumer demand for innovative, premium household products rises.
The company is capitalizing on global trade shifts and tariff realignments, leveraging its extensive North American manufacturing footprint (-$2 billion invested, untapped capacity), which is allowing it to secure long-term distribution gains and market share from retailer reshuffling. This is positioned to lift top-line sales and improve net margins as supply chain efficiencies increase.
Continued direct-to-consumer channel expansion and digital engagement, evidenced by increased investment in omni-channel marketing and product launches (e.g., Yankee Candle's 360-degree program), are set to boost both revenues and gross margin through enhanced brand loyalty and a higher mix of premium sales.
Aggressive ongoing cost-saving initiatives, productivity improvements, and ERP system harmonization are expected to enable structural operating margin expansion, drive sustainable EBITDA and EPS growth, and ultimately improve the company's leverage profile.
Portfolio optimization-focusing on high-margin, growth categories, divesting underperforming assets, and scaling manufacturing automation-should result in higher earnings quality and operating cash flow as consumer preferences shift towards multifunctional, trusted brands in evolving retail environments.

Newell Brands Earnings and Revenue Growth

Newell Brands Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Newell Brands's revenue will grow by 1.0% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -3.3% today to 6.3% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $482.4 million (and earnings per share of $1.1) by about September 2028, up from $-243.0 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 8.6x on those 2028 earnings, up from -10.8x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Consumer Durables industry at 11.4x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.75% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 12.32%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Newell Brands Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Ongoing core sales declines and category softness persist despite improvements in margin and innovation, reflecting either structural weaknesses in market demand or Newell's brand positioning, which could pressure long-term revenue growth.
Exposure to unfavorable macroeconomic trends-such as persistent high interest rates, moderated but lingering consumer inflation, and consumer pullbacks (especially by lower-income cohorts)-may produce protracted weakness in discretionary categories, limiting revenue recovery and raising earnings volatility.
Heavy reliance on tariff-driven sourcing advantages and unpredictable global trade policies introduces long-term operational risks; if tariff environments change or competitors adjust, Newell's relative competitive advantage could erode, jeopardizing margins and potentially reversing recent financial gains.
Elevated net leverage (5.5x) and ongoing high interest expenses restrict financial flexibility, heighten vulnerability to further rate increases, and could impair investment in innovation, marketing, and necessary strategic pivots needed to sustain future earnings growth.
Aggressive pricing actions to offset tariffs and inflation could trigger volume losses or intensify private label and digitally native competitor encroachment, eroding market share, compressing net margins, and putting pressure on both short
and long-term revenues.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $6.825 for Newell Brands based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $9.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $5.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $7.6 billion, earnings will come to $482.4 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 8.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 12.3%.
Given the current share price of $6.29, the analyst price target of $6.82 is 7.8% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

NWL: U.S. Manufacturing Shift Will Drive Greater Efficiency As Industry Headwinds Ease