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AI Infrastructure And Renewable Energy Will Unlock New Markets

Published
22 Dec 24
Updated
18 Oct 25
AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
US$23.78
17.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
18 Oct
US$19.57
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Author's Valuation

US$23.7817.7% undervalued intrinsic discount

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

Last Update18 Oct 25
Fair value Increased 1.95%

The analyst price target for MARA Holdings has increased from $34 to $39 per share, reflecting analysts' confidence in the company's growing bitcoin treasury and its strong capital market position.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research updates highlight renewed optimism among analysts regarding MARA Holdings, as reflected in higher price targets and continued favorable ratings. Analysts note strategic positioning and capital strength as key factors supporting the company's outlook. Some caution remains as the sector evolves.

Bullish Takeaways
  • Bullish analysts have raised MARA Holdings' price target due to the company's expanding bitcoin treasury, emphasizing its ability to accumulate digital assets faster than peers.
  • Capital market advantages are seen as a significant driver, enabling MARA Holdings to raise funds efficiently and sustain growth in digital asset holdings.
  • Analysts highlight the firm's strong market position relative to other publicly traded bitcoin treasury companies. This positions the company for continued valuation growth.
  • Overall, bullish sentiment is supported by the expectation that the number of bitcoin held by such companies will continue to rise, further enhancing long-term profitability.
Bearish Takeaways
  • Bearish analysts caution that the sector’s growth trajectory depends heavily on the broader performance of the digital asset market, which can introduce valuation volatility.
  • There are concerns that market saturation among bitcoin treasury companies could pressure future returns if capital markets tighten or asset prices stagnate.
  • Execution risk remains. The successful deployment of newly raised capital into productive assets will be essential for sustaining earnings growth.

What's in the News

  • The White House is set to unveil a cryptocurrency policy report that will address tokenization and potential new digital asset legislation. This may impact companies like MARA Holdings. (Reuters)
  • A new White House order directs regulators to expand access to crypto and alternative investments in 401(k) plans. This introduces more risk and opportunity for companies operating in the digital asset space, including MARA Holdings. (Reuters)
  • MARA Holdings, Inc. reported unaudited production results for September 2025, producing 736 bitcoin for the month.
  • The company is seeking acquisitions and announced a proposed $850 million convertible note offering. The proceeds are aimed at repurchasing existing debt, acquiring additional bitcoin, and making strategic investments.
  • MARA Holdings recently selected Paris, France as its new European headquarters, marking a significant step in its international expansion efforts.

Valuation Changes

  • The Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly from $23.32 to $23.78 per share, suggesting a modest upward revision in expected intrinsic value.
  • The Discount Rate has declined from 9.73% to 9.49%, reflecting reduced perceived risk in MARA Holdings’ future cash flows.
  • The Revenue Growth Projection has fallen from 12.41% to 10.86%, indicating more conservative sales growth expectations moving forward.
  • The Net Profit Margin Estimate has increased significantly from 2.77% to 12.75%, pointing to greater anticipated profitability.
  • The Future P/E Ratio has dropped considerably from 443.7x to 101.9x, illustrating substantial improvement in the company’s expected valuation multiples.

Key Takeaways

  • Expansion into AI infrastructure and global partnerships diversifies revenue streams and reduces reliance on core bitcoin mining operations.
  • Focus on energy-efficient, vertically integrated operations and active treasury management strengthens cost structure and financial resilience for long-term growth.
  • Heavy reliance on volatile bitcoin mining, high capital needs, increased competition, regulatory risks, and operational hazards threaten future margins, cash flow, and market position.

Catalysts

About MARA Holdings
    Operates as a digital asset technology company in the United States.
What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?
  • MARA's strategic expansion into AI infrastructure and partnerships with leading AI and grid management companies positions the firm to benefit from the accelerating adoption of artificial intelligence and the growing demand for high-performance, energy-efficient compute, which is likely to unlock new, recurring revenue streams outside traditional bitcoin mining.
  • Ongoing global digital transformation and heightened enterprise focus on data sovereignty and cybersecurity are driving demand for hybrid, sovereign-edge infrastructure; MARA's geographic diversification and partnerships with governments and energy companies, especially in emerging markets, are expected to open up significant new addressable markets, boosting top-line growth and reducing reliance on U.S. operations.
  • Continued transition to an asset-heavy, vertically integrated business model-with a focus on owned low-cost renewable energy assets-enables MARA to achieve sector-leading energy efficiency and cost structure, supporting superior net margin expansion over time as legacy, expensive contracts roll off.
  • Active management of the sizable bitcoin treasury, including yield strategies and risk-optimized digital asset management, creates incremental cash flow to support operating expenses and future investment, enhancing net income resiliency and providing financial flexibility for growth initiatives and M&A.
  • A robust pipeline of 3+ gigawatts for global infrastructure projects and deliberate investment in proprietary R&D solidify MARA's ability to launch new solutions ahead of peers, supporting long-term earnings growth and potentially raising the company's valuation relative to current earnings power.

MARA Holdings Earnings and Revenue Growth

MARA Holdings Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?
  • Analysts are assuming MARA Holdings's revenue will grow by 12.4% annually over the next 3 years.
  • Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 85.0% today to 2.8% in 3 years time.
  • Analysts expect earnings to reach $31.5 million (and earnings per share of $-0.25) by about September 2028, down from $678.8 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $605.5 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $-480.6 million.
  • In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 443.7x on those 2028 earnings, up from 8.7x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Software industry at 36.2x.
  • Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
  • To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 9.73%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

MARA Holdings Future Earnings Per Share Growth

MARA Holdings Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?
  • MARA Holdings' core business remains highly dependent on bitcoin mining, exposing the company to significant revenue and earnings volatility due to fluctuations in bitcoin price and potential future declines in mining rewards, making long-term topline growth unpredictable.
  • The company's substantial investments in expanding mining infrastructure and transitioning toward an asset-heavy model require continuous high capital expenditures; if bitcoin prices fall or mining economics deteriorate, this could compress net margins and strain free cash flow.
  • MARA's strategy of generating yield on its large bitcoin treasury through lending, trading, and structured arrangements introduces counterparty, liquidity, and operational risks; adverse events or failures in these strategies could directly impact balance sheet value and recurring revenue.
  • Intensifying competition in the bitcoin mining sector, particularly from new entrants like Tether and hardware suppliers like Bitmain vertically integrating, as well as larger energy companies entering the space, may drive up network hashrate, compressing gross margins and eroding market share, impacting both revenue and net income.
  • Heightened global regulatory scrutiny of cryptocurrency activities, as well as growing environmental concerns over energy-intensive mining, could result in new restrictions, taxes, or operating limitations that raise costs or constrain expansion, ultimately pressuring long-term profitability and shareholder returns.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?
  • The analysts have a consensus price target of $23.323 for MARA Holdings based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $28.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $18.0.
  • In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $1.1 billion, earnings will come to $31.5 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 443.7x, assuming you use a discount rate of 9.7%.
  • Given the current share price of $15.93, the analyst price target of $23.32 is 31.7% higher. Despite analysts expecting the underlying buisness to decline, they seem to believe it's more valuable than what the market thinks.
  • We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

How well do narratives help inform your perspective?

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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