Last Update 10 Mar 26

Fair value Decreased 37%

SMR: DOE Fuel Support And ENTRA1 Progress Will Support Long Term Deployment

Analysts have revised our fair value estimate for NuScale Power to $21.27 from $33.96, reflecting broadly lower Street price targets in the $11.50 to $21 range as they balance long commercialization timelines, near term financing overhangs, and ongoing project progress at RoPower and ENTRA1/TVA.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research shows a wide range of opinions on NuScale Power, with many firms trimming price targets while still highlighting specific positives and risks that matter for valuation and execution.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts highlight incremental progress on the RoPower and ENTRA1/TVA projects, which they see as important proof points for NuScale's commercialization path and a key driver of long term value if milestones continue to be met.
Some bullish voices point to NuScale's reported US$1.3b liquidity position at the end of 2025, supported by US$750m in at the market proceeds and a new US$1b at the market program. They view this as providing meaningful financial flexibility to fund ongoing development.
Where ratings are upgraded to more positive stances, analysts often frame NuScale as having long term potential tied to successful deployment of its projects. At the same time, they bring price targets down to align with the revised risk and timing profile.
Supportive analysts generally view the lengthy path to Final Investment Decision, or FID, as challenging but manageable, as long as NuScale continues to show steady project level progress that can underpin the investment case.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts focus on the broadly lower price targets, with several firms cutting their ranges into the low to mid teens. This reflects concern that near term execution risks and extended commercialization timelines may limit upside for now.
Some research highlights near term headwinds such as active share sales by a large shareholder and potential pressure from current and future at the market programs. These factors could weigh on sentiment and valuation while the company is still pre FID.
There is caution around delays tied to the RoPower announcement and the overall length of time required to reach FID on key projects, which adds uncertainty to the timing of revenue scale up and project level returns.
More cautious analysts maintain neutral or negative ratings despite acknowledging long term potential. They argue that current valuation should reflect execution risk, financing overhangs and the possibility that project milestones take longer or cost more than initially expected.

What's in the News

NuScale filed a follow on equity offering for up to US$1b of Class A common stock through an at the market program, adding a new potential source of funding flexibility.
The company withdrew a previously filed US$750m at the market follow on equity offering of Class A common stock, reducing the size of its immediate at the market plans.
Robbins Geller Rudman & Dowd LLP announced a securities class action related to NuScale’s commercialization partnership with ENTRA1 and its TVA agreement, including allegations around disclosures and a reported US$495m payment that contributed to general and administrative expenses and a quarterly net loss of US$532m, with investors able to seek lead plaintiff status until April 20, 2026.
NuScale began working with Oak Ridge National Laboratory under a U.S. Department of Energy GAIN voucher to use an AI enabled nuclear design framework for a 12 module configuration. The work is aimed at finding ways to manage fuel more efficiently across multiple reactors.
At a December 16, 2025 special meeting, NuScale stockholders approved an amendment increasing authorized Class A common shares from 332,000,000 to 662,000,000. This expanded the company’s capacity to issue additional equity.
The U.S. Department of Energy announced an initiative that would support the nuclear fuel supply chain. This initiative is relevant background for companies such as NuScale that focus on nuclear power technology (CNBC).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: revised down from $33.96 to $21.27, a reduction of roughly 37% in the central valuation estimate.
Discount Rate: adjusted slightly from 9.21% to 9.20%, indicating only a minimal change in the assumed risk profile.
Revenue Growth: updated from 82.72% to 108.86%, reflecting a higher modeled growth rate in future dollar revenue.
Net Profit Margin: moved from 12.30% to 11.10%, pointing to a modestly lower expected level of long run profitability.
Future P/E: increased from 189.23x to 339.22x, a very large multiple that signals a higher valuation per unit of expected future earnings in the model.

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Key Takeaways

NuScale's advanced SMR commercialization and partnerships position it well for accelerated revenue growth and immediate deployment in competitive energy markets.
Efficiency improvements and strategic focus on reducing expenses are expected to enhance profitability and support margin expansion.
Challenges in securing agreements, funding uncertainties, and potential supply chain issues threaten cash flow, earnings, and profitability, despite project advancements.

Catalysts

About NuScale Power

Provides small modular reactor technology solutions.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

NuScale's involvement in the RoPower 6-module small modular reactor (SMR) power plant in Romania indicates future meaningful revenue and cash flow through its partnership in the Fluor-led Front-End Engineering and Design (FEED) Phase 2. This project enhances NuScale's revenue prospects.
With an NRC-approved SMR technology and the commitment of over $2 billion towards its development and licensing, NuScale is uniquely positioned for immediate commercial deployment compared to competitors focused solely on demonstration plans. This potentially accelerates revenue growth once commercial operations commence.
NuScale is advancing the manufacturing of long-lead materials for 12 modules, anticipating customer demand, which supports a smooth production ramp-up, reducing delivery times significantly, and potentially boosting future revenue and earnings.
Significant demand for nuclear energy, especially from AI-driven data centers like Microsoft and Meta, could lead to increased interest and order placements for NuScale’s SMR technology. This could materially increase future revenues as data centers triple their energy use by 2028.
NuScale's focus on reducing operating expenses, as noted by the substantial year-over-year decrease, could lead to improved net margins. Efficiency improvements transitioning from R&D to commercialization are likely to enhance profitability and support margin expansion.

NuScale Power Earnings and Revenue Growth

NuScale Power Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming NuScale Power's revenue will grow by 121.5% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts are not forecasting that NuScale Power will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate NuScale Power's profit margin will increase from -368.8% to the average US Electrical industry of 10.5% in 3 years.
If NuScale Power's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $42.2 million (and earnings per share of $0.12) by about April 2028, up from $-136.6 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 248.0x on those 2028 earnings, up from -13.0x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Electrical industry at 19.7x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.48%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

NuScale Power Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The complexity and negotiation challenges of securing long-term power purchase agreements with prospective customers could delay revenue generation and impact cash flow projections.
The U.S. government grant-related uncertainties and the administrative process of securing additional funding highlight a possible risk to future liquidity and investment inflow, potentially affecting financial stability and development timelines.
Potential bottlenecks in the supply chain or manufacturing process for the small modular reactors, despite current advancements, could lead to increased operational costs and affect net margins.
The dependence on the successful commercialization of ENTRA1 Energy projects and the potential delays in customer acquisition for NuScale's long-lead modules pose a risk to revenue forecasts and earnings projections.
The ongoing regulatory approval process with the NRC for the power upgrade and overall project complexity may result in unanticipated expenses or timeline shifts, impacting future earnings and profitability.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $24.46 for NuScale Power based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $29.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $17.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $402.3 million, earnings will come to $42.2 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 248.0x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.5%.
Given the current share price of $13.91, the analyst price target of $24.46 is 43.1% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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