Last Update 09 Mar 26

Fair value Decreased 2.67%

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Analysts trimmed our Blackstone fair value estimate to $162.26 per share from $166.72, reflecting a slightly higher discount rate, a modestly lower future P/E assumption of 15.62, and recent Street concerns around weaker flows and management fee headwinds linked to BCRED redemptions.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research paints a mixed picture for Blackstone, with price targets and commentary clustering around two themes: how well the firm can manage current redemption pressures in its wealth products, and how effectively it can still grow and monetize its broader alternatives platform over time.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts point to Blackstone's early push into private wealth as a potential long term growth engine, highlighting its role as an early mover in building a dedicated retail channel.
Some see potential benefits from an improving real estate cycle, viewing Blackstone as well positioned to capture incremental activity given its existing scale and footprint in the asset class.
Coverage initiations and reinstatements with ratings at or above market weight suggest that, even after recent BCRED headlines, some analysts still view the risk or reward balance as reasonable at current levels.
Several firms maintain Outperform or equivalent ratings despite trimming targets, which signals that they still see room for value creation if Blackstone executes on fundraising and deployment plans.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts are focused on BCRED, where Q1 gross redemption requests of 7.9% and net outflows of US$1.4b have raised concerns about the durability of retail private credit flows and the potential impact on management fees.
Goldman and JPMorgan both flag net flow pressure in retail credit vehicles as a headwind for fee related earnings, with JPMorgan explicitly lowering its price target to US$122 from US$158 to reflect lower fee assumptions.
Multiple firms have reduced price targets across the alternatives group, citing lower flow assumptions, reduced realization expectations and uncertainty around earnings from business development company products.
Some research notes describe the recent BCRED redemption data as a source of short term trading pressure for the broader group, as investors reassess how sensitive Blackstone's valuation is to retail sentiment and media coverage around non traded products.

What's in the News

Over 25 senior leaders committed US$150m of personal capital to the Blackstone Private Credit Fund, alongside US$250m from the firm, to help meet US$3.8b of redemption requests from investors in the vehicle (Bloomberg).
Reports indicate Blackstone is raising its stake in artificial intelligence firm Anthropic with a US$200m investment at a US$350b valuation, bringing its total investment in the company to about US$1b at the current valuation (Bloomberg).
Blackstone is reported to be exploring a possible sale of Beacon Offshore Energy, with a potential valuation of more than US$5b, and is said to be in early discussions with investment banks about a process (Bloomberg).
Media reports say Blackstone and other private equity firms are expressing interest in acquiring assets such as Volkswagen's Everllence division, MarineMax, and Whitestone REIT, as well as exploring a possible investment in energy infrastructure company VoltaGrid (Reuters, Financial Times, Bloomberg).
Bloomberg reports that Blackstone leaders are weighing potential bids or investments across several sectors, including data center energy provider VoltaGrid and consumer facing businesses, highlighting a busy period for deal discussions and rumoured transactions.

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: trimmed slightly to $162.26 per share from $166.72 per share.
Discount Rate: nudged higher to 8.01% from 8.00%, reflecting a marginally higher required return assumption.
Revenue Growth: kept effectively unchanged at 14.07%.
Net Profit Margin: left effectively unchanged at 50.50%.
Future P/E: reduced modestly to 15.62x from 16.04x, which implies a slightly lower valuation multiple on expected earnings.

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Key Takeaways

Blackstone is positioned for strong future growth with high inflows and substantial capital for opportunistic investments in undervalued assets.
Strategic alliances and innovations in private credit and wealth management aim to boost revenue through expanded market reach and larger spreads.
Economic and geopolitical uncertainties, including tariffs and trade negotiations, pose risks to Blackstone's revenues, real estate values, earnings, and overall financial performance.

Catalysts

About Blackstone

An alternative asset management firm specializing in private equity, real estate, hedge fund solutions, credit, secondary funds of funds, public debt and equity and multi-asset class strategies.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Blackstone has raised $62 billion of inflows in Q1 2025, marking the highest level in three years, which boosts assets under management (AUM) and gives the company a strong foundation for future revenue growth.
The firm is well-positioned to benefit from market dislocation with $177 billion of dry powder available for opportunistic investments, potentially increasing future earnings as capital is deployed in undervalued assets.
Blackstone's strategic alliance with Wellington and Vanguard aims to develop integrated public-private investment solutions, potentially expanding revenue channels by tapping into the private wealth market.
The expansion in private credit, particularly in investment-grade private credit, shows a 35% year-over-year growth, indicating potential for significant revenue streams due to larger spreads and structural tailwinds in the credit markets.
The innovation in private wealth management and strong fundraising results in this channel ($11 billion in the first quarter of 2025) suggest potential for margin expansion and revenue growth by further penetrating individual investor markets.

Blackstone Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Blackstone's revenue will grow by 16.7% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 21.2% today to 48.9% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $10.5 billion (and earnings per share of $8.25) by about September 2028, up from $2.9 billion today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 28.6x on those 2028 earnings, down from 47.3x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Capital Markets industry at 26.7x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 1.91% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.2%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Blackstone Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Tariffs and ongoing multilateral trade negotiations introduce significant uncertainty that could impact economic growth and inflation, influencing investor sentiment and potentially affecting Blackstone's future revenues.
Potential increases in construction costs due to tariffs may reduce new supply in real estate, affecting Blackstone's real estate portfolio values and consequently impacting revenue and net margins.
Market volatility and geopolitical concerns could reduce the near-term realization activity, affecting Blackstone’s distribution of earnings and net margins from asset sales.
The high level of market uncertainty may delay investment deployment, diminishing the opportunity for immediate capital gains, and potentially affecting earnings growth.
The economic slowdown risk due to delayed tariff diplomacy could negatively affect a broader range of companies in Blackstone's portfolio, potentially impacting asset valuations and overall financial performance.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $181.684 for Blackstone based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $215.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $150.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $21.5 billion, earnings will come to $10.5 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 28.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.2%.
Given the current share price of $173.17, the analyst price target of $181.68 is 4.7% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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