Last Update22 Oct 25Fair value Decreased 0.96%
Analysts have slightly lowered their price target for Corebridge Financial to $39.85 from $40.23 per share. They cite updated forecasts for modestly reduced growth and profitability, while noting continued operational stability and earnings tailwinds.
Analyst Commentary
Recent Street research highlights both positive developments and lingering concerns for Corebridge Financial, as reflected in updated price targets and revised expectations.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts continue to point to operational stability and resilience, noting that recent macro uncertainties have had limited material impact on Corebridge's earnings.
- The firm’s fee-based earnings and group benefits business remain sources of optimism, with expectations for ongoing growth in these segments.
- Favorable claims experience, combined with a normalized investment income environment, is viewed as a positive indicator for both the current actuarial review season and future earnings expansion.
- Distribution channels are described as strong. This supports continued execution and potential for sustained growth momentum.
- Bearish analysts have modestly trimmed price targets, reflecting cautious expectations around future growth and profitability despite underlying operational stability.
- Secular flow headwinds, especially in some spread-related business lines, remain a concern that could weigh on growth prospects over the medium term.
- While fee and trading day tailwinds are acknowledged, there is recognition that these factors are largely anticipated by the market and may not offer surprise upside to near-term valuation.
- Some fine-tuning of models following management conversations reflects a view that material upside catalysts may be limited in the near future.
What's in the News
- Piper Sandler lowered Corebridge Financial's price target to $40 from $42, maintaining an Overweight rating. The firm noted that investment income and fee tailwinds are largely anticipated by the market (Periodical).
- Corebridge Financial announced the countrywide availability of its life insurance products through Allstate Financial Services. This expands its distribution network and introduces both term and permanent life insurance offers (Key Development).
- The company launched Power Select AICO, a new index annuity featuring a unique Additional Interest Credit Overlay, in partnership with Market Synergy Group (Key Development).
- Marc Costantini was appointed as the next Chief Executive Officer, effective December 1, 2025. He will succeed Kevin Hogan (Key Development).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has declined slightly from $40.23 to $39.85 per share, reflecting tempered outlooks on growth and profitability.
- Discount Rate is nearly unchanged and has moved marginally lower from 9.17% to 9.17%.
- Revenue Growth expectations have moderated, falling from 11.47% to 10.79%.
- Net Profit Margin projections have softened from 13.30% to 12.59%.
- Future P/E ratio has increased from 8.07x to 8.60x, which indicates a higher relative valuation on future earnings expectations.
Key Takeaways
- Rising demand for retirement income products, supported by demographic shifts and product innovation, is fueling Corebridge's growth and market positioning.
- Digital modernization, risk reduction strategies, and a capital-light model are driving efficiency, stability, and improved shareholder returns.
- Greater dependence on fee-based and spread-based products, vulnerable partnerships, and technology lag may constrain Corebridge's profitability, revenue growth, and competitive positioning.
Catalysts
About Corebridge Financial- Provides retirement solutions and insurance products in the United States.
- Corebridge is set to benefit from robust growth in individual retirement and annuities sales as the aging U.S. population turns 65 in record numbers, fueling increased demand for guaranteed income products-supporting long-term revenue and AUM expansion.
- Ongoing shifts from defined benefit pensions to IRAs and 401(k)s are creating sustained secular tailwinds for lifetime income and insurance solutions, positioning Corebridge's broad, innovative annuity and retirement product suite for above-market sales growth and improved future earnings.
- The company's focused investments in digital modernization, AI-driven underwriting, and partnerships have led to improved customer acquisition, operating efficiencies, and a 14% reduction in general operating expenses since IPO, driving structurally lower expense ratios and higher net margins.
- The transformative exit from legacy variable annuity risk via the reinsurance transaction has enhanced Corebridge's balance sheet, reducing earnings volatility and freeing significant capital for EPS-accretive share repurchases-expected to accelerate EPS growth and return on equity.
- Consistent execution of a capital-light, fee-based revenue mix in Group Retirement and growing advisory/brokerage assets are improving revenue diversification and cash flow stability, further supporting sustainable earnings and shareholder capital returns.
Corebridge Financial Future Earnings and Revenue Growth
Assumptions
How have these above catalysts been quantified?- Analysts are assuming Corebridge Financial's revenue will grow by 11.5% annually over the next 3 years.
- Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -2.1% today to 13.3% in 3 years time.
- Analysts expect earnings to reach $3.0 billion (and earnings per share of $6.63) by about September 2028, up from $-337.0 million today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as $2.6 billion.
- In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 8.2x on those 2028 earnings, up from -53.4x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Diversified Financial industry at 16.5x.
- Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 5.31% per year for the next 3 years.
- To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 9.18%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.
Corebridge Financial Future Earnings Per Share Growth
Risks
What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?- Corebridge's transition away from variable annuities removes a declining but still material earnings source and increases concentration in spread-based and fee-based products; sustained low or declining interest rates could compress investment portfolio yields and reduce overall profitability and net margins.
- Ongoing shifts in Group Retirement from spread-based to fee-based products, while positive for capital-light growth, involve fee income that is currently growing only modestly and is exposed to outflows and large plan exits, which can depress revenue if not replaced with new inflows.
- The reliance on strategic distribution partnerships-including those inherited from AIG and new RILA channels-poses risks if any major relationships are lost or if competitive forces erode Corebridge's shelf space; this could impact both sales growth and top-line revenue.
- Climate change impacts and episodic volatility in the Institutional Markets segment (such as pension risk transfer and GICs), as well as periods of weak alternative asset performance and real estate valuations, can contribute to uneven reserve and income growth, affecting both earnings stability and long-term ROE.
- While management highlights digitization and AI as efficiency drivers, slower progress in full end-to-end process modernization in businesses outside Life Insurance may limit operating leverage improvements and keep expense ratios higher than industry leaders, constraining future margin expansion.
Valuation
How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?- The analysts have a consensus price target of $41.077 for Corebridge Financial based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $46.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $37.0.
- In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $22.3 billion, earnings will come to $3.0 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 8.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 9.2%.
- Given the current share price of $33.39, the analyst price target of $41.08 is 18.7% higher.
- We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.
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Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
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