Last Update 24 Nov 25
MBLY: Recurring Software Revenue And OEM Partnerships Will Drive Stronger Performance
Mobileye Global's analyst price target saw modest movement in recent updates, with shifts both upwards and downwards to a range of $15 to $25. Analysts cite ongoing partnerships, market expansion, and production uncertainties as key drivers behind the revised expectations.
Analyst Commentary
Recent analyst reports on Mobileye Global highlight both optimism regarding the company’s growth trajectory and caution due to evolving industry and company-specific challenges. These perspectives center around Mobileye’s position in the expanding autonomous driving and automotive technology markets, as well as its ability to navigate production and market uncertainties.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts see Mobileye benefiting from increasing wins among original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and growing partnerships in the autonomous vehicle space, which supports long-term revenue expansion.
- The company’s development of recurring software-enabled revenue streams, especially in mobility-as-a-service and advanced driver assistance solutions, is viewed as a strong driver for accelerating growth in the coming years.
- Analysts believe that broader automotive sector trends and long-term efforts such as onshoring production could mitigate risks from tariffs and contribute to upside potential for Mobileye’s valuation.
- Recent product demonstrations, such as the EyeQ6-based SuperVision system, have drawn positive attention and may improve sentiment among both customers and investors.
- Bearish analysts have pointed to ongoing uncertainty in global light vehicle production and increasing competition in autonomous vehicle technology as factors that could constrain revenue and margin growth.
- Some analysts have lowered their price targets following quarterly results, noting that performance improvements and guidance updates have been more modest relative to broader auto industry trends.
- There is concern that past production challenges and potential impacts from suppliers, such as Nexperia, may add further unpredictability to Mobileye’s execution and financial outcomes.
- Certain forecasts have been revised downward due to changes in industry-wide assumptions, including lower future adoption rates of battery electric vehicles and more conservative market growth estimates for key regions.
What's in the News
- Mobileye signed a Memorandum of Understanding with VVDN Technologies to localize and offer its advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) in India, leveraging VVDN's local engineering and production capabilities. (Key Developments)
- The collaboration aims to accelerate the localization, testing, and production readiness of Mobileye ADAS technologies for Indian automakers. This responds to regulatory changes and increasing demand for automotive safety and technology in India. (Key Developments)
- As part of the agreement, Mobileye and VVDN will focus on localizing solutions built on the EyeQ chip family and associated sensors. This enables faster time-to-market and customization for both domestic and export markets. (Key Developments)
- Mobileye's ADAS solutions, supported by over 200 million system-on-chip shipments globally, will now be tailored for the evolving needs of the Indian automotive industry. (Key Developments)
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value remains steady at $19.35, indicating no change in the company's estimated intrinsic value.
- Discount Rate has fallen slightly from 10.43% to 10.25%, reflecting a minor decrease in the risk assessment associated with Mobileye’s future cash flows.
- Revenue Growth projection is unchanged at 17.59%, with analysts maintaining their forecast for the company's sales increase.
- Net Profit Margin remains consistent at 7.71%, showing no updated expectations for profitability relative to revenues.
- Future P/E has decreased marginally from 88.15x to 87.41x, suggesting a small reduction in expected future earnings multiples.
Key Takeaways
- Strategic partnerships with OEMs and platforms like Uber and Lyft forecast enhanced future revenue from robust demand and integration of advanced technologies.
- Market share expansion and robotaxi business growth indicate significant potential for high-margin revenue and earnings uplift.
- Geopolitical uncertainties and potential tariffs threaten Mobileye's revenue and demand, impacting future earnings and market growth in key regions.
Catalysts
About Mobileye Global- Develops and deploys advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving technologies and solutions worldwide.
- Mobileye's success in rapidly achieving design wins in Q1 showcases robust forward demand for single-chip front camera systems and future volume expansion, indicating potential revenue growth.
- There is strategic alignment with OEMs to integrate Mobileye's advanced technology and software for future safety features, forecasting enhanced long-term earnings given the sustained demand for multi-camera setups and highway hands-free driving systems.
- The partnership with leading platforms like Uber and Lyft for the integration of Mobileye Drive is positioned to significantly enhance Mobileye’s revenue streams through upfront sales and recurring license fees tied to utilization rates.
- Expansion in partnerships, such as the new engagement with a European OEM after 8 years, portrays increasing market share and potential uplift in revenue due to wider adoption of Mobileye's technology.
- With Mobileye's gradual deployment and scaling of robotaxi business expected from 2026, the structure of the associated agreements suggests substantial earnings growth driven by substantial volumes in a high-margin segment.
Mobileye Global Future Earnings and Revenue Growth
Assumptions
How have these above catalysts been quantified?- Analysts are assuming Mobileye Global's revenue will grow by 15.6% annually over the next 3 years.
- Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -153.9% today to 3.8% in 3 years time.
- Analysts expect earnings to reach $111.5 million (and earnings per share of $0.16) by about September 2028, up from $-3.0 billion today.
- In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 192.5x on those 2028 earnings, up from -4.1x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Auto Components industry at 17.7x.
- Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.5% per year for the next 3 years.
- To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 9.7%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.
Mobileye Global Future Earnings Per Share Growth
Risks
What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?- Uncertainty in global light vehicle production due to trade frictions could negatively impact revenue and consumer spending, affecting Mobileye's earnings.
- The potential for a 3% to 7% reduction in volumes for top 10 customers due to tariffs could lower revenue and reduce the overall market demand for EyeQ units.
- Slower-than-expected OEM decision-making for advanced products like SuperVision and Chauffeur may hinder future earnings and revenue growth.
- Geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties, particularly in regions like China, may impact sustained demand, affecting potential revenue from this key market.
- The impact of tariffs on auto components and the potential for reduced consumer demand due to higher vehicle pricing could affect net margins and overall earnings.
Valuation
How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?- The analysts have a consensus price target of $19.823 for Mobileye Global based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $31.1, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $12.0.
- In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $3.0 billion, earnings will come to $111.5 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 192.5x, assuming you use a discount rate of 9.7%.
- Given the current share price of $14.9, the analyst price target of $19.82 is 24.8% higher.
- We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.
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Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
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