Last Update 09 Dec 25
Fair value Increased 0.26%HIG: Future Returns Will Reflect Balanced Cycle Risks And Capital Return Support
Analysts nudged their price target on Hartford Insurance Group slightly higher, reflecting a modest increase in fair value to about $142.42 per share as updated models incorporate steady revenue growth, broadly resilient profit margins, and sector research pointing to a solid but fully valued property and casualty outlook.
Analyst Commentary
Street research on Hartford Insurance Group continues to coalesce around a view of a fundamentally solid franchise trading near fair value, with recent target hikes clustering modestly above the current price. Ratings largely sit in the middle of the spectrum, underscoring confidence in execution but limited perceived upside as the property and casualty cycle matures.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts highlight Hartford's strong track record and diversified insurance platform, supporting the argument that current earnings power is sustainable rather than cyclical peak.
- Several recent target increases into the mid 140s to 150 range signal growing conviction that steady premium growth and disciplined underwriting can support mid single digit to high single digit earnings growth over the next couple of years.
- Updated sector models after a relatively calm catastrophe season point to resilient margins and limited earnings disruption from macro uncertainty, which underpins a view that Hartford can continue to compound book value even in a softer pricing environment.
- Commentary around a lighter mix of property renewals suggests some pricing support on select commercial lines, which could help offset pockets of casualty pressure and preserve return on equity at attractive levels.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts describe the current valuation multiple as stretched, arguing that the stock already discounts strong execution and leaves little margin of safety if loss trends or pricing deteriorate.
- Equal weight and neutral stances emphasize that the property and casualty cycle is likely to soften into 2026, raising the risk of slower top line growth and incremental pressure on underwriting margins.
- Sector level concerns around commercial auto and broader casualty lines, where pricing is seen as inadequate, could cap further multiple expansion if loss cost inflation resumes.
- The concentration of ratings around market perform and peer perform signals skepticism that Hartford can consistently outperform sector peers from here, given a more challenging backdrop for rate increases and reinsurance pricing.
What's in the News
- Increased quarterly common dividend per share by 15% to $0.60, payable January 5, 2026, reinforcing a shareholder friendly capital return stance (Key Developments).
- Repurchased 4.14 million shares for $535 million between July 1 and October 24, 2025, completing a 12.48 million share, $1.53 billion buyback program announced July 25, 2024 (Key Developments).
- Expanded CyberChoice First Response, a comprehensive cyber product for small businesses, nationwide via the ICON digital platform, integrating cyber coverage with the long standing Spectrum Business Owners Policy (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly from $142.06 to $142.42 per share, reflecting a marginally higher long term outlook.
- Discount Rate is effectively unchanged, easing fractionally from 6.96% to 6.956%, indicating a stable risk assessment.
- Revenue Growth has inched higher from 5.24% to about 5.24%, signaling a very modest upgrade to top line expectations.
- Net Profit Margin has edged down slightly from roughly 11.60% to 11.60%, pointing to essentially stable profitability assumptions.
- Future P/E has risen slightly from 11.93x to about 11.96x, suggesting a marginally richer valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.
Key Takeaways
- Digital capabilities and technology investments aim to enhance efficiency and customer experience, potentially boosting revenues and improving net margins.
- Strategic growth in E&S markets and disciplined underwriting are expected to boost earnings, enhancing earnings per share through improved combined ratios.
- Elevated catastrophe losses and increased competition, coupled with regulatory and macro-economic challenges, could impact Hartford Insurance Group's margins and revenue growth.
Catalysts
About Hartford Insurance Group- Provides insurance and financial services to individual and business customers in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
- Harnessing digital capabilities, including AI and cloud adoption, is expected to enhance efficiency and customer experience, potentially boosting future revenues.
- The company's strategic investments in technology and data integration with partners like Workday may drive increased operational efficiencies, aiding in improved net margins.
- Growth in small business and international markets, driven by new product offerings and competitive technological advantage, could result in higher revenue growth.
- Strong pricing strategy and disciplined underwriting, especially in Business and Personal Insurance, are set to improve combined ratios and boost earnings.
- Expansion in the E&S (Excess & Surplus) market and achieving targeted profitability in the Personal Insurance segment could lead to significant earnings growth, enhancing EPS.
Hartford Insurance Group Future Earnings and Revenue Growth
Assumptions
How have these above catalysts been quantified?- Analysts are assuming Hartford Insurance Group's revenue will grow by 5.3% annually over the next 3 years.
- Analysts are assuming Hartford Insurance Group's profit margins will remain the same at 11.7% over the next 3 years.
- Analysts expect earnings to reach $3.7 billion (and earnings per share of $14.1) by about September 2028, up from $3.2 billion today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
- In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 11.6x on those 2028 earnings, up from 11.4x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Insurance industry at 14.3x.
- Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 3.01% per year for the next 3 years.
- To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.78%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.
Hartford Insurance Group Future Earnings Per Share Growth
Risks
What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?- Elevated catastrophe losses, such as the $467 million from the California wildfires, demonstrate a significant risk that could impact revenue and net margins, despite the company's risk management strategies.
- Increased competition and market pressure, especially in the Business Insurance segment and workers' compensation market, could lead to reduced pricing power and revenue growth challenges.
- Macro-economic uncertainties, including potential tariff impacts, could increase loss costs for auto and commercial insurance, affecting earnings and margins.
- The dynamic policy landscape and regulatory challenges, particularly in personal lines with varied state requirements for rate increases, could limit the company's ability to quickly adjust pricing in response to inflationary pressures, impacting net margins.
- The competitive environment in the Small Commercial and Personal Insurance markets, combined with the costs of ongoing digital and technological investments, might restrain profitability improvements and future net earnings.
Valuation
How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?- The analysts have a consensus price target of $138.833 for Hartford Insurance Group based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $163.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $120.0.
- In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $32.0 billion, earnings will come to $3.7 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 11.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.8%.
- Given the current share price of $130.84, the analyst price target of $138.83 is 5.8% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
- We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.
How well do narratives help inform your perspective?
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.