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Simple Math - Pony pays for each robotaxi in 8 months.

Published
28 Sep 25
Views
111
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frogwater's Fair Value
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1Y
43.8%
7D
0.9%

Author's Valuation

US$3.61155.4% overvalued intrinsic discount

frogwater's Fair Value

Both Guangzhou and Shenzhen allow 24 hour a day service. The average robotaxi fair price is $7. Pony expects 25 fares per day. The translates to $175/day for 365 days a year = $63,875. The estimated Pony BOM cost is about $31,000 for a Toyota bZ4X and the PONY hardware stack is about $12,000. That means per vehicle hardware costs is approximately $43,000. Not including operational costs (people costs), that means EVERY PONY vehicle is paid for in about 8 months. So, PONY has cracked the per unit cost. Now it is a pure scaling operational limitation.

Regardless of estimated stock value, they have enough money to scale. And their safety first orientation will get them there. Check my math.

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Disclaimer

The user frogwater holds no position in NasdaqGS:PONY. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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