Last Update 10 Dec 25

Fair value Increased 0.56%

IONS: Late-Stage Data And Multiple Launches Will Shape Balanced Long-Term Outlook

Analysts have modestly raised their fair value estimate for Ionis Pharmaceuticals to approximately $86 per share. This reflects higher peak sales assumptions for Tryngolza and other late stage programs, a slightly richer pricing outlook in severe hypertriglyceridemia, and growing confidence in the company reaching multi billion dollar revenue and profitability in the early 2030s.

Analyst Commentary

Street research on Ionis has tilted more constructive in recent months, with multiple price target increases reflecting improved confidence in both the commercial outlook for Tryngolza and the broader late stage pipeline. At the same time, some observers remain measured on category dynamics and execution risk as the company transitions to a multi product commercial model.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts see Tryngolza outperformance in familial chylomicronemia syndrome as de risking the launch and supporting upward revisions to peak sales assumptions. This in turn underpins higher price targets in the $80 to $100 range.
Several models now embed meaningful contribution from severe hypertriglyceridemia. Positive Phase 3 data and constructive pricing commentary are leading to higher assumed annual pricing and a clearer path to multi billion dollar revenue by the early 2030s.
Multiple recent upgrades highlight Ionis entering a new phase of execution, with a growing commercial portfolio and pipeline readouts that, if successful, are viewed as sufficient to drive sustained share outperformance and a path to breakeven and profitability.
Positive Phase 3 results in ultra rare neurologic indications and TTR cardiomyopathy are seen as validating the platform, expanding the addressable market, and improving visibility on the company achieving more than $3B in long term annual sales.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts and more cautious voices note that some key opportunities, such as FCS, remain relatively small niches and may not fully justify the recent magnitude of valuation rerating without flawless execution in broader indications like severe hypertriglyceridemia.
There is lingering concern about competitive dynamics as both Ionis and Arrowhead move into the severe hypertriglyceridemia market. Pricing and share capture in the post launch environment are viewed as potential sources of volatility for revenue trajectories.
Certain projections still carry execution risk around multiple near term launches, including commercial infrastructure build out, payer negotiations, and uptake in ultra rare diseases, any of which could delay the timing of profitability.
Some Hold rated research argues that while category growth in areas like TTR cardiomyopathy may exceed prior expectations, current valuation already anticipates a significant share of that upside. This may limit near term multiple expansion absent further clinical or commercial overdelivery.

What's in the News

FDA grants Breakthrough Therapy designation to olezarsen as an adjunct to diet for adults with severe hypertriglyceridemia, based on Phase 3 CORE and CORE2 data showing up to 72% triglyceride reduction and an 85% drop in acute pancreatitis events (Key Developments).
FDA grants Breakthrough Therapy designation to zilganersen for Alexander disease after a pivotal study shows statistically significant and clinically meaningful stabilization in gait speed and consistent benefit across secondary endpoints in children and adults (Key Developments).
CHMP issues a positive opinion recommending EU approval of DAWNZERA (donidalorsen) to prevent hereditary angioedema attacks in patients 12 and older, following strong Phase 3 OASIS-HAE and OASISplus data (Key Developments).
Ionis raises 2025 revenue guidance to 875 million to 900 million dollars and narrows expected operating loss, citing accelerated investment ahead of anticipated olezarsen and zilganersen launches (Key Developments).
Arrowhead files a declaratory judgment lawsuit in U.S. federal court seeking to invalidate or confirm non infringement of an Ionis patent related to Arrowhead's planned plozasiran commercialization (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

The fair value estimate has risen slightly to approximately $85.95 per share from about $85.47 per share, reflecting modestly higher long term assumptions.
The discount rate has increased marginally to roughly 7.32% from about 7.31%, indicating a very small uptick in the perceived risk profile.
Revenue growth has remained effectively unchanged at around 20.44% annually, signaling stable medium to long term topline expectations.
The net profit margin has held essentially steady at approximately 3.60%, implying no material revision to long term profitability assumptions.
The future P/E has risen slightly to about 298.9x from roughly 297.2x, suggesting a modestly higher valuation multiple on projected earnings.

Expanding into larger patient populations and strong physician acceptance position Ionis for substantial market share gains and sustained top-line growth.
Strategic partnerships, growing royalties, and a competitive edge in rare disease commercialization enhance financial resilience and support margin expansion.
Expanding into broader indications and dependence on key late-stage assets heighten pricing pressures, regulatory risks, and limit revenue and margin growth amid market and partner challenges.

Catalysts

About Ionis Pharmaceuticals

A commercial-stage biotechnology company, provides RNA-targeted medicines in the United States.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The rapid revenue growth and positive launch trajectory for Tryngolza in familial chylomicronemia syndrome (FCS), along with the imminent launch of Donidalorsen for HAE and multiple late-stage pipeline assets reading out or launching by 2027, are set to drive sustained, stepwise increases in top-line revenue and operating leverage as Ionis transitions from R&D-heavy to commercial-stage.
Expanding addressable patient populations-from rare diseases to larger segments like severe hypertriglyceridemia (sHTG)-combined with favorable physician feedback and significant unmet need, position Ionis to capture substantial market share and revenue growth from trends tied to the rise in chronic disease and an aging population.
Greater acceptance of RNA-targeted and antisense oligonucleotide (ASO) therapies among physicians, regulators, and payors, demonstrated by positive reimbursement outcomes, coverage expansions, and robust adoption, supports Ionis' potential to improve gross and net margins over time as its innovative therapies become increasingly mainstream.
Ionis' growing stream of high-margin royalty and milestone revenues from partnerships (e.g. Biogen, AstraZeneca, Roche), as well as recent substantial out-licensing deals, provides both capital efficiency and financial resilience-helping shore up net margins and reducing risk as operating expenses scale with new launches.
The company's proven ability to rapidly identify, educate, and enroll patients in rare diseases-leveraging omnichannel and specialty networks-signals a first-mover and competitive advantage in precision medicine, supporting revenue durability and premium pricing amid expanding payor willingness to reimburse high-value, personalized therapies.

Ionis Pharmaceuticals Earnings and Revenue Growth

Ionis Pharmaceuticals Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Ionis Pharmaceuticals's revenue will grow by 16.7% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts are not forecasting that Ionis Pharmaceuticals will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate Ionis Pharmaceuticals's profit margin will increase from -28.4% to the average US Biotechs industry of 16.1% in 3 years.
If Ionis Pharmaceuticals's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $241.3 million (and earnings per share of $1.48) by about September 2028, up from $-268.2 million today.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 56.5x on those 2028 earnings, up from -35.9x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Biotechs industry at 15.5x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.95% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.98%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Ionis Pharmaceuticals Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Ionis faces a significant risk of revenue compression as it expands Olezarsen from a rare-disease (FCS) to a broader (sHTG) indication, with management openly discussing that a price reduction will be necessary to address the much larger patient populations-potentially leading to a step-down in average net price and limiting long-term margin growth and earnings expansion.
The company's increasing reliance on a few late-stage assets and upcoming FDA approvals (notably for Donidalorsen and Olezarsen in sHTG) highlights high regulatory and execution risk: setbacks or delays in pivotal data (e.g., insufficient acute pancreatitis outcomes, ambiguity around meaningful endpoints, or label negotiations) could disrupt the launch cadence and result in "lumpy" or stagnating revenue and net income.
Slowdown in new patient identification beyond "low hanging fruit" populations (e.g., initial trial participants or previously diagnosed rare disease patients) suggests that longer-term growth in rare indications like FCS may be constrained by diagnosis rates and market penetration challenges, dampening the sustainability of revenue momentum.
Ionis admits it is not currently building out ex-U.S. infrastructure and will continue to rely on third-party partners (e.g., Sobi, AstraZeneca) for global commercialization, meaning any changes in strategy, performance, or prioritization by these partners could materially impact royalties, milestone revenues, and overall revenue diversification.
Anticipated large-scale pricing negotiations for expanded indications and payer resistance, especially as Ionis targets larger, less severe patient populations, expose the company to global drug pricing pressures and reimbursement complexities, elevating the risk that gross-to-net realization and ultimate revenue growth may fall short of expectations as biosimilars, generics, or competitive modalities (such as CRISPR and new RNA therapies) emerge.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $68.346 for Ionis Pharmaceuticals based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $96.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $43.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $1.5 billion, earnings will come to $241.3 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 56.5x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.0%.
Given the current share price of $60.49, the analyst price target of $68.35 is 11.5% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Analyst Commentary Highlights Ionis Pharmaceuticals’ Upward Price Target and Valuation Amid Key Clinical Wins