EW: Long-Term TAVR Durability Will Support Renewed Upside Into 2026

Our fair value estimate for Edwards Lifesciences edges up to about $96 per share, reflecting slightly higher analyst price targets. These targets are grounded in expectations for steady organic growth in TAVR, confidence in Sapien durability from long term PARTNER 3 data, and growing interest in Evoque driven opportunities into 2026.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research around Edwards Lifesciences has tilted more positive, with several firms lifting price targets and a few moving to more constructive ratings. The common thread is renewed confidence in transcatheter aortic valve replacement, or TAVR, supported by long term PARTNER 3 data and emerging traction in mitral and tricuspid opportunities such as Evoque.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts are raising price targets into a US$92 to US$108 range and, in some cases, shifting to more positive ratings. They link this to stronger execution in core TAVR and a clearer setup into 2026.
Several notes highlight the seven year PARTNER 3 results as reinforcing Sapien durability. They see this as supportive for TAVR volumes and Edwards' ability to sustain organic growth in its structural heart franchise.
Evoque is cited as an additional growth driver, with better real world data described as a positive surprise that could support adoption in mitral and tricuspid repair and replacement over time.
Some analysts point to robust Q3 performance, with beats across key metrics and updated FY 2025 guidance at the higher end of prior ranges. They view this as evidence that management is executing against its growth plan.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts and those maintaining Hold or Peer Perform stances still see valuation risk, with one research house flagging fair value in a US$70 to US$85 band despite improved sentiment around TAVR.
Caution remains around policy and reimbursement, with references to potential ACA and Medicare changes that could affect MedTech demand and require close monitoring by investors.
A few firms frame the recent positive data as more of a clearing event after prior concerns, rather than a clean slate, and highlight that expectations for accelerating US TAVR are already building into 2026.
Sector level factors, such as rotation within healthcare and prior share price swings, are mentioned as reasons why some analysts prefer to wait for more evidence of sustained execution before moving to a more positive stance.

What’s in the News

The U.S. District Court granted the FTC an injunction blocking Edwards Lifesciences’ proposed acquisition of JenaValve Technology, so the deal will not proceed. Edwards stated it will continue to advance its SOJOURN transcatheter AR valve and the JOURNEY pivotal trial for aortic regurgitation therapy (Lawsuits & Legal Issues).
The SAPIEN M3 mitral valve replacement system became the first transcatheter therapy using a transseptal approach to receive FDA approval for treating symptomatic moderate to severe or severe mitral regurgitation in patients unsuitable for surgery or TEER, and for certain mitral valve dysfunction associated with mitral annular calcification, following positive one year ENCIRCLE trial data published in The Lancet (Product related announcement).
Edwards released seven year PARTNER 3 and ten year PARTNER 2 data, reporting excellent long term valve performance and durability for its SAPIEN TAVR platform across risk profiles, with similar mortality and reintervention rates versus surgery and sustained quality of life benefits (Product related announcement).
One year ENCIRCLE trial results and 30 day real world data from the EVOQUE TTVR STS/ACC TVT Registry showed successful patient outcomes, high rates of MR and TR reduction and low reported complication rates across mitral and tricuspid therapies, with SAPIEN M3 approved in Europe and EVOQUE approved in both the US and Europe (Product related announcement).
From July 1, 2025 to September 30, 2025, Edwards repurchased 7,718,577 shares for US$603.25m, bringing total buybacks under the July 28, 2022 program to 46,805,365 shares for US$3,459.43m. The company also provided updated 2025 guidance that frames total company sales growth at the high end of 9% to 10% and sets Q4 2025 sales expectations in a US$1.51b to US$1.59b range (Buyback and corporate guidance updates).

Valuation Changes

Fair value estimate has been adjusted slightly to about US$96.44 per share from about US$95.80 per share.
The discount rate is now 7.71% compared with 7.72% previously, reflecting a very small recalibration of risk assumptions.
Revenue growth is now modeled at 9.81% compared with 9.81% previously, showing only a minimal change in top-line expectations.
The net profit margin has been updated to 24.69% from 24.69% previously, indicating almost no change in long-run profitability assumptions.
The future P/E is now 34.97x compared with 34.74x previously, implying a slightly higher valuation multiple in the updated framework.

Strategic product launches, like the TAVR approval and EVOQUE, position Edwards for significant revenue growth and expanded market share.
Investments in surgical innovation and operational efficiency mitigate financial threats, enhance global therapy adoption, and stabilize earnings.
Tariffs, competitive pressures, and strategic investments could impact Edwards Lifesciences' margins and revenue growth, requiring careful financial planning to achieve targets.

Catalysts

About Edwards Lifesciences

Provides products and technologies to treat advanced cardiovascular diseases in the United States, Europe, Japan, and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The expected approval of the early TAVR indication in the second quarter, along with policy and guideline changes in the U.S. and globally, represents a multiyear growth opportunity that could significantly enhance revenue streams in the future.
The planned launch of the transcatheter tricuspid valve EVOQUE in 2024 is anticipated to uniquely position Edwards to gain market share and increase revenues as it becomes the first company to develop and offer this therapy.
The recent approval of the Sapien M3 in Europe as the world's first transcatheter mitral valve replacement system signals Edwards' ability to address large, unmet patient needs, which could result in substantial revenue growth.
Edwards' ongoing investments in surgical innovation, such as the RESILIA tissue technology, are likely to expand access and adoption of its cardiovascular therapies globally, potentially improving net margins and bolstering revenue.
The company's plan to mitigate the financial impacts of announced tariffs and the JenaValve acquisition while maintaining its EPS guidance of $2.40 to $2.50 demonstrates an operational efficiency that could positively impact earnings.

Edwards Lifesciences Earnings and Revenue Growth

Edwards Lifesciences Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Edwards Lifesciences's revenue will grow by 10.0% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 24.8% today to 23.7% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $1.8 billion (and earnings per share of $3.09) by about September 2028, up from $1.4 billion today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as $1.5 billion.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 35.1x on those 2028 earnings, up from 33.2x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Medical Equipment industry at 29.7x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.46% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.42%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Edwards Lifesciences Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Edwards Lifesciences faces potential financial risks due to the impact of tariffs, which could affect the company's gross margins and net earnings, as they anticipate a $0.05 EPS impact from current tariffs in 2025, with greater impacts expected in 2026.
The acquisition of JenaValve may lead to an EPS dilution of $0.05 to $0.10, which could strain operating margins and necessitate careful planning to offset the acquisition costs in order to maintain earnings per share targets.
The competitive pressure in international markets, such as Japan, is exerting downward pressure on TAVR procedure growth, potentially impacting revenue growth and expansion efforts in these regions.
While Edwards anticipates expanding TAVR indications to asymptomatic patients, the regulatory and policy changes required for this may take longer than expected, delaying the projected revenues from this expanded patient base.
High levels of discretionary R&D spending, as well as necessary strategic investments to offset EPS impacts, indicate that operating expenses could rise, potentially impacting net profit margins if the expected growth in revenues does not materialize accordingly.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of $87.731 for Edwards Lifesciences based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $101.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $72.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $7.6 billion, earnings will come to $1.8 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 35.1x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.4%.
Given the current share price of $79.8, the analyst price target of $87.73 is 9.0% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

Durability Data And Real-World Evidence Will Shape Risk And Opportunity Ahead